Tradeoff DA - Georgetown 2023

Military Tradeoff DA
1nc Shell – Single-Payer
Military recruitment is in crisis now as civilian employment becomes comparatively more attractive---means brink for the link which decks combat readiness
Seligman et al. 22. Lara, Lara Seligman is an award-winning journalist who covers the Pentagon for POLITICO. Her reporting on the military and the defense industry has taken her around the world, from the Middle East to Mongolia to the backseat of an Air Force Thunderbird. Before joining POLITICO, Lara covered the Pentagon and national security for Foreign Policy. There, she traveled to West Africa to cover the rapidly expanding terrorism threat in the Sahel, and accompanied the Secretary of Defense on his first international trip to Asia. She has also written for the Washington Post, Defense News, Aviation Week, and Inside Defense. Paul McLeary, Paul McLeary covers major defense programs and acquisitions policy for POLITICO. He previously covered the Pentagon for Foreign Policy, Defense News and Breaking Defense, and has embedded with U.S. forces in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. In Afghanistan, he was the first reporter to get inside the secretive ODIN program that targeted insurgents planting roadside bombs, and later accompanied U.S. special operations forces training Syrian Kurds in northern Syria. He has also traveled to the Arctic with the Norwegian military. Lee Hudson, Lee Hudson covers defense technology and influence for POLITICO. Her reporting on the military and the aerospace and defense industries has taken her to military installations around the globe, aboard warships, and in a jump seat of a V-22. Prior to joining POLITICO, she covered the Pentagon and Capitol Hill for Aviation Week. There she traveled on multiple assignments to Europe, and accompanied service secretaries, military service chiefs, and the acting secretary of defense on trips in the U.S. Previously, she rose through the ranks at Inside Defense, ultimately becoming chief editor of Inside the Navy. Lee graduated from Loyola University New Orleans in 2010. “Lawmakers press Pentagon for answers as military recruiting crisis deepens.” Politico, July 7, 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/27/lawmakers-pentagon-military-recruiting-00048286
Lawmakers from both parties are putting increasing pressure on the Pentagon to fix the recruitment crisis that threatens to leave the military well short of its goals to bring new troops aboard this year, in what is widely considered the worst recruiting environment since the end of the Vietnam War.
While leaders from the different military branches have all acknowledged the problem, they also have been unable to move the needle in a positive direction, as the desire of young Americans to join the military falls off the statistical cliff.
“We are on the cusp of a military recruiting crisis,” Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) told POLITICO, citing Covid, obesity among would-be recruits, competition from the healthy civilian labor market, and an overall low interest in serving. “When Republicans take control of Congress in a few months,” he added, “averting the recruiting crisis will be a top priority of the Military Personnel Subcommittee.” Gallagher is the top Republican on the House Armed Services’ subpanel.
Multiple lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have expressed similar worries in recent days as the grim recruiting numbers continue to circulate throughout the DoD and Congress. The Army has reached 66 percent of its goal for the fiscal year ending in September, and the Navy is at 89 percent, according to data compiled from October 2021 to May 2022. Even with rates of 100 percent for the Marine Corps, Air Force and Space Force, that leaves the department with a total rate of just 85 percent.
Rep. Anthony Brown (D-Md.), a member of the House Armed Services Committee, called on the Pentagon to “do more” to support service members and encourage young Americans to join the military.
“That means better pay, training, opportunities, connections and benefits. And deepening partnerships with traditionally underserved or overlooked communities to tap into the full talent pool of our country,” Brown said in a statement. “Recruitment and personnel are core to our readiness. We need to take this seriously.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Calif.), who chairs the Military Personnel Subcommittee, said the Pentagon has “not expanded” on a recent batch of numbers it sent to Congress, and she wants to hold a joint hearing with her panel and the Readiness subcommittee on recruiting issues.
“I would say we have to do a deep dive into why the numbers are shrinking,” Speier told POLITICO. “I think we have to have a hearing to kind of explore that.”
It’s not clear in the short term what Congress can do, as multiple military officials say that they’re contending with broader cultural and lifestyle trends that make military service less attractive for the overwhelming majority of eligible recruits.
Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.), a former Army Ranger, told POLITICO that the Pentagon should promise more money on top of the growing enlistment bonuses that services are dangling in front of potential recruits. “We’re going to have to provide enlistment incentives and bonuses, and I think we also have to educate people … about military service and what it looks like and what it means.”
That unfamiliarity with the military is a major concern, as headlines of sexual assault, post-traumatic stress and accusations of “woke” military leaders have been a constant over the past few years.
Recent briefing slides obtained by POLITICO show that senior Pentagon leaders are alarmed by low enlistment numbers and the military “currently faces the most challenging recruiting market since the advent of the All-Volunteer Force, with multiple Services and Components at risk for missing mission in FY 2022,” according to the slides. The United States ended the draft in 1973.
“Arduous market conditions are expected to persist into the future as the market is not likely to self-correct,” it added.
Recruitment numbers typically drop when the economy is doing well, and the Covid-19 pandemic has kept recruiters from physically going to high schools, colleges and sporting events, all standard locations to find would-be recruits.
In addition to the economy and Covid, the sharp drop in entry-level troops can be traced to young people’s concerns about the physical and psychological risks of service, as well as other career interests, the possibility of interference with college education, and dislike of military lifestyle, according to a DoD youth poll from last summer featured in the slides. The briefing also cites declining trust in the military as an institution, along with the military’s high standard for recruits.
Former and current DoD officials, as well as experts, also pointed to the Pentagon’s vaccine mandate and Republican criticism of the military’s “wokeness” as contributing to the problem — and department leadership knows it. The Army recently cut off some 40,000 National Guard and 22,000 Reserve soldiers who refused to be vaccinated against Covid from some of their military benefits and is preventing them from participating in military duties.
Mackenzie Eaglen, an expert with the conservative American Enterprise Institute, argued that the vaccine mandate has “indisputably negative” impacts on recruiting.
“The math and logic simply doesn’t add up to let troops go involuntarily over the vaccine while announcing at the same time historically high bonuses for new recruits (which the U.S. Army did this winter),” she said. “It is far more time-consuming and expensive to fire those with experience versus bringing in new, untrained personnel.”
“If you are sitting in the state of Georgia or Texas and you see they are putting 40,000 members out, you are going to scratch your head a bit and say, ‘why would I join up?’” one former senior DoD official said. “And if you don’t want to get vaccinated, you are certainly not going to join.”
The top Republican on the House Armed Services’ Readiness Subcommittee, Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, joined with 49 other Republicans Tuesday to send a letter to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin requesting the Pentagon reconsider the Department’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate in response to the recruiting crisis. Waltz is a former Green Beret and current member of the National Guard.
“At a time when the Department is struggling to recruit qualified young men and women fit for duty to fill the ranks, and while China is embarking on a massive military buildup which threatens American interests around the world, we should not be hindering our own readiness and capabilities by punishing and forcing out experienced and dedicated Guardsmen and Reservists,” the letter stated.
Meanwhile, the services have begun rolling out their own initiatives and rethinking old ones to bring in new troops. “It’s a challenge right now,” Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday told reporters Tuesday. He said the service has given up on running TV ads and has gone completely digital, in particular targeting the gaming community for the skills that gamers might bring to the service which jibes with new unmanned technologies the Navy is developing.
The service has also dialed back restrictions on tattoos, has developed programs for single parents, and is considering eliminating the “zero tolerance” rule for potential recruits who admit to prior marijuana use. “It’s a competitive environment in terms of recruiting with the low unemployment rate. We need to try and break through to new demographics that don’t have any history of service in their family. So the outreach to gamers is an example of that,” Gilday said.
While the active-duty recruiting shortfall is serious, the picture from the reserve component is worse. The Army National Guard has only reached 66 percent of its goal; the Army reserve 63 percent; the Navy reserve 66 percent; the Air National Guard 69 percent; the Air Force Reserve 74 percent. The Marine Corps reserve is the only one to exceed its goal, reaching 111 percent.
Army leaders say they are well aware of their recruitment issues. Gen. Joseph Martin, the Army’s No. 2 general, told the House Armed Services Committee this month that the Army could shrink as low as 445,000 troops next year, from the current 466,000.
He cited “unprecedented challenges with both a post-Covid-19 environment and labor market, but also competition with private companies that have changed their incentives over time,” to offer more flexible working arrangements and pay incentives.
Link - Single-payer healthcare removes one of the most important incentives to joining the military---it decimates recruitment and retainment
Peltier et al. 23. Chad, Grace Hand, Nathaniel Peterson, Louis Deflice, Kyle Smith, and Justin Handy. “Cultural Change, Tuition-Free College, and Comprehensive Health Care: Emerging Challenges to National Defense?” Joint Force Quarterly 108, 1st quarter 2023. https://ndupress.ndu.edu/JFQ/Joint-Force-Quarterly-108/Article/Article/3264581/cultural-change-tuition-free-college-and-comprehensive-health-care-emerging-cha/
Health Care
On a similar note, healthcare costs for the average civilian consumer have significantly increased over time, making TRICARE’s comprehensive coverage for Servicemembers, Reservists, retirees, and their families, with zero out-of-pocket costs, another strong recruiting and retention tool. A 2005 RAND study indicated that the monetary savings of TRICARE for one Servicemember with a family is approximately $5,000 per year versus the costs of a similar benefits package offered by a civilian employer.29 This saving is an underestimate, given that the cost of civilian health care has only increased since then.30 As with educational benefits, evidence indicates that healthcare coverage provided by the military is an important factor in the decision to join and stay in the military. One study attributed 3 percent of Army separations after a first enlistment to the implementation of the Affordable Care Act alone, suggesting that the presence of publicly available and free health care, were it to be implemented, could have an even more pronounced negative impact on military retention and recruiting.31
As with education reform, proposals and support to increase healthcare coverage and/or decrease healthcare costs are increasing. The Affordable Care Act of 2010 increased coverage for those who were uninsured and was responsible for increasing Army separations. To complement the Affordable Care Act, Senator Sanders introduced the American Health Security Act in 2011, which would grant comprehensive health coverage to all citizens with no cost sharing. More recently, Senator Sanders introduced the Medicare for All Act of 2019, and Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) introduced the 2021 Medicare for All Bill.32 There are also several bills at the state level proposing the adoption of some form of single-payer health care. Again, though these bills have not passed, their level of support has increased over time, with 137 combined House and Senate sponsors of single-payer healthcare bills in 2017—more than at any other point in the previous 50 years.33 This trend suggests a single-payer health care model, which could make TRICARE a less attractive incentive to join the military, is increasingly likely.
Given the vital importance of tuition and healthcare benefits to military staffing, any threat to devalue them would require the military to develop alternative recruitment strategies and/or incentives. Although broad changes to the general civilian education and healthcare system are not likely to occur in the immediate future, their eventual enactment appears increasingly probable. Polls show that public support for tuition-free college grew from 47 percent in 2016 to 63 percent in 2019, while support for government-sponsored health care for all has increased since 2008, with many Americans supporting its implementation today.34 If college and health care were to become free, then those who contemplate military service to obtain these benefits would have a lowered incentive to serve.
One may contend that beginning to plan for such changes to healthcare and education policies is premature, but the general decrease in interest in military service, the broad scope of these changes, and the deliberate pace of government reform imply that the time to plan is now. The GI Bill funding illustrates the importance of advance planning. The GI Bill, though it serves as a recruiting incentive and retention tool, is classified as a veteran benefit and does not fall under Department of Defense (DOD) appropriations. If the GI Bill funding were dismantled, its funds would not necessarily be available for DOD to repurpose for other incentive needs as it saw fit. The same may also be true of TRICARE; if TRICARE were no longer necessary in its current form, it would not necessarily mean that its funding would be available for the military to repurpose. To be able to divert this money to other recruiting and retention incentives, DOD may need to start planning and lobbying years in advance of any potential elimination of the GI Bill and/or TRICARE.
<Insert Readiness Impact>
Uniqueness
UQ – Incentives Now
TRICARE military insurance is better than most corporate insurance
Zeiser 23. Jessica. “TRICARE is the Health Insurance Employers Need to Know.” Selman Co, January 16, 2023. https://blog.selmanco.com/blog/tricare-is-the-health-insurance-employers-need-to-know-with-tricare-supplement
In the US, around 35% of all Americans receive health insurance coverage from a government program. Most people will be familiar with Medicaid and Medicare, but there are many other types of programs for different populations, including TRICARE. This program is available to the military community, and it offers some very robust plans that rival some of the best private insurance plans. SelmanCo offers TRICARE Supplement insurance that works with TRICARE to create a rock-solid alternative to an employer's major medical plan. If employers have TRICARE-eligible employees who do not participate in their earned benefit program, it may be worthwhile to help those employees compare their options.
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What is TRICARE?
Public systems account for over a third of all health insurance in the US, and TRICARE is one of them. TRICARE is a health care program benefitting uniformed military services members as well as their families. All TRICARE plans satisfy requirements for minimum essential coverage under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
The program covers over nine million individuals around the world, including Active Duty service members, retired military service members, members of the National Guard, their families, and surviving dependents of military personnel who lost their lives.[i]
Who sponsors the program?
TRICARE is managed by the Defense Health Agency under leadership of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Health Affairs).[ii]
Which plans are available?
Thirteen types of TRICARE plans exist for those who meet eligibility requirements. However, three types of TRICARE plans—the three with the most enrollees—are compatible with an employer-based supplement.
TRICARE Prime is a managed care option primarily offered for active duty service members, with comprehensive coverage offered. Some retired military members may also qualify for this coverage, but active duty members are automatically eligible. The plan offers a lower out-of-pocket cost, and in many cases, the plan requires referrals to see eligible service area providers, much like an HMO.
TRICARE Select is a fee-for-service option for non-active duty service members. Although out-of-pocket costs for this coverage are higher, there is no referral requirement, and more freedom and options for providers are available, allowing the plan to function more like a PPO (Preferred Provider Organization). This option also has the added benefit of covering insureds while they travel overseas.
TRICARE Retired Reserves (TRR) is a plan which functions similarly to TRICARE Select, but is only for retired reserve and National Guard members. These individuals must not be under eligibility for other TRICARE coverage.
Who is eligible?
Those who are TRICARE eligible include the following[iii],[iv]:
Employees or spouses must be eligible for TRICARE to qualify for the TRICARE Supplement Insurance Plan. These are typically employees or spouses who are retired military personnel, not eligible for Medicare, and under age 65. Military retirees, retired reservists, their spouses, and dependent children can be covered by TRICARE + TRICARE Supplement Insurance, subject to eligibility requirements.
Eligibility for TRICARE is determined by the uniformed services and reported to DEERS. All eligible beneficiaries must have their eligibility status recorded in DEERS.
What does it cover?
TRICARE provides comprehensive health coverage for medical necessities, some of which are covered automatically due to status benefits. TRICARE also features benefits not mentioned here that can be directly purchased, such as the TRICARE Retiree Dental Program for retired military personnel.
Depending upon the plan, the additional benefits purchased, and the status of the enrollee, benefits often incur lower out-of-pocket costs than private health insurance. This can apply to both the member and their dependents.
How are costs shared between insurer and insured?
The delivery of care is dependent upon the plan the employee is enrolled in; in some cases, the employee may only be able to receive care at eligible service providers, such as those that are used under TRICARE Prime. In other cases, they may have a more robust network of providers in exchange for higher out-of-pocket costs.
The cost sharing is dependent upon the plan that the individual is enrolled in; for Prime, this 

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