Impact - Warming Good - Michigan 7 2023 BFHGR

Warming Good — BFGHR
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⛽ 🗝️ “It is better to travel well than arrive.” — Cynthia Abacus Turner 🗝️⛽
Notes
100% student produced --- Awesome job!
Warming Good — Turn — Ice Age
Turn — Ice Age — Aff
Ice Age---U---No Ice Age---2AC
It’s thousands of years off, irreversible, and warming causes it.
Wilson & Watson ’23 [Tracy & Stephanie; June 14; staff science writer at HowStuffWorks, freelance science writer & journalist, “Could reversing global warming start an ice age?” HowStuffWorks, https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/question780.html]
Another school of thought makes the opposite prediction: Global warming might actually lead to another ice age. According to this theory, warming temperatures disrupt ocean currents -- particularly the Gulf Stream, the flow that redistributes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. As the Gulf Stream makes its deposits of warm water along the coasts of Great Britain and northwestern Europe, it keeps the temperatures there warmer than they would be otherwise.
The worry is that, when Arctic ice melts as a result of global warming, huge amounts of fresh water will pour into the North Atlantic and slow down the Gulf Stream. A study of circulation in the North Atlantic has discovered that there already has been a 30 percent reduction in currents flowing north from the Gulf Stream [source: Pearce]. A slowed Gulf Stream could potentially lead to dramatic cooling in Europe.
Will either of these scenarios really happen? It's hard to say for sure. Climate experts haven't even come to a consensus about the cause and effects of global warming, let alone whether it might prevent or trigger the next ice age.
The question of whether reversing global warming might lead to an ice age could be irrelevant if it never happens. According to a study by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the changes in ocean surface temperature, rainfall, and sea level that have already occurred are irreversible for a thousand years after carbon dioxide emissions are completely stopped [source: NOAA]. That means no matter how much we curb our emissions today, we may not be able to undo the damage that has already been done anytime soon.
The one thing scientists do seem to agree on is that another ice age is not likely to occur for thousands of years -- not even remotely close to any of our lifetimes.
Ice Age---U---No Ice Age---1AR
Zero scientific consensus.
Connolly ’23 [William; February 27; Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University, “Global Cooling Myth in the 70’s,” OSS Foundation, https://ossfoundation.org/projects/environment/global-warming/myths/global-cooling/]
Many claim that in the 1970’s all scientists believed the earth was cooling. Factual examination of the controversial report reveals that there was a consensus. The consensus was we don’t know enough yet. The confirmation of the Milankovitch cycles indicated that we were to begin a cooling phase, the introduction of industrial greenhouse gases indicated we could interrupt the natural cycle. More study was needed.
As in all thing’s science and reason, context is required to understand relevance of any data or scope of understanding. In the case of the global cooling myth, let’s take a look at the context.
This is around the time that the “Milankovitch Cycles’ were confirmed by the deep ocean sediment core studies, thus solidifying the understanding that the earth’s climate system is subject to long term natural cycle influences that significantly alter our climate.
Ice age predicted in the 70’s? As we show below, not really. We came out of the last ice age 15,000 years ago. Typically, we would go back into an ice age as that is the natural cycle. The industrial imposed climate forcing is so large that we can not at this level of forcing, return to an ice age.
“A careful review of the report shows no consensus on global cooling. In fact quite the opposite is expressed by the generally views of the report. There was no consensus, or anything that could remotely be called a consensus, of ‘ALL’ scientists as has been claimed by global warming denialists.” W M Connolley
No ice age.
Oladunjoye ’22 [Blessing; November 25; climate reporter for BO News, “FACT CHECK: Will Ice Age Return in the Next 30 years?” BO News, https://bonewssng.com/fact-check-will-ice-age-return-in-the-next-30-years/]
Recent research quoted by Carbon Brief confirms that the impact of humans on the planet is pushing back when the Earth might descend into its next ice age.
In the article written by Robert McSweeny, Carbon Brief says “while the Earth might have naturally cycled back into an ice age in 50,000 years’ time in the absence of emissions, we’re unlikely to see one for at least 100,000 years because of the CO2 we put into the atmosphere.”
Also, NASA’s Earth Observatory shared that as the world consumes ever more fossil fuel, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise, and Earth’s average surface temperature will rise with them.
It noted further that “based on plausible emission scenarios, average surface temperatures could rise between 2°C and 6°C by the end of the 21st century. Some of this warming will occur even if future greenhouse gas emissions are reduced because the Earth system has not yet fully adjusted to environmental changes already made.”
As NASA debunked that the Earth is not cooling, it emphasised that “as countries around the world rapidly develop and gross domestic products increase, human-produced emissions of carbon dioxide are accelerating.”
Sharing his expert opinion, Philip Jakpor, an environment and climate activist, in an interview with BONews Service said it is evident that the earth is not returning to an ice age soon because of human activities and increased CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
Jakpor said, “with the level of emissions that we have and the fossil fuel industry still expanding operations, especially in Africa, where we have oil and gas prospecting in about 45 countries out of which 18 are frontiers countries that have little or nothing to do with oil, the likelihood of nuclear winter or the earth cooling anytime soon does not arise.”
Verdict
The claim the ice age will return in 30 years is FALSE. The claim is misleading and could cause humans to continue to contribute to global warming, which is extremely dangerous to humans and the planet as a whole.
Ice Age---Link---Alt Causes---2AC
OR volcanoes, axial tilt and ice packing make it inevitable.
Banaji ’22 [Shreyas; December; member of NASA/Virginia Earth System Science Scholars, “The Little Ice Age, NASA, Colonial Virginia, and the Conundrum of Anomalous Weather Conditions,” Advances in Historical Studies, vol. 11, no. 4, https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=120917]
Potential causes of the Little Ice Age have been noted from several key events, possibly working in conjunction with one another or coinciding. One notable explanation is that these anomalies were initially caused by an increase in volcanoes, hence reducing solar activity for the planet. In 1315, Mount Tarawera in what is now New Zealand erupted, but prior to that, another large volcano occurred in 1257, with three smaller ones following within the next 100 years. What proved unique about this succession of volcanoes is that these were known as “stratovolcanoes,” a condition where magma leaves and forms various layers within different eruptions, causing unusually high levels of ash and toxic gases, hence contributing to longer-lingering and changing temperatures (Lorrey et al., 2014).
Additionally, NASA surveillance systems have detected 16 major eruptions followed by cooling events from the beginning of the 1600s, which coincides with the Jamestown settlement period, causing sunspot activity due to orbital forcing and escaping greenhouse gases. Each time a volcano erupts, ash and magma form clouds within the Earth’s atmosphere, blocking out solar radiation and thus causing cooling periods. Because cloud coverage varies depending on the location and size of the eruption, different places on the planet will experience various levels of cooling. Moreover, this cooling effect can have implications for the entire planet, since major cooling within an area of the hydrosphere can affect ocean currents and ultimately lead to increased sea levels and potential coastal flooding. In addition to detrimental effects on the hydrosphere and lithosphere, any volcanic eruption, especially those following in succession, will also influence atmospheric circulation, and cyclical lows within solar radiation will also cause changes within the ocean’s circulation (Ellis et al., 2013).
2.1. Anomalous Winters and Hotter Summers
Concerning early European settlement in Roanoke and Jamestown, extremely harsh winters were recorded by the inhabitants, ultimately leading to food shortages. Mistakenly, early colonizers of the Americas wrongly predicted that the climate in certain latitudes of the New World would be similar to those of Europe. Instead, early settlers found much harsher living conditions once they arrived, with colder winters and hotter summers, and due to the corresponding time period with the Little Ice Age, this only worsened throughout the duration of the two settlements. The colonists’ unpreparedness eventually led to impossible harvesting periods, war with indigenous populations who were also fighting to survive on the same scarce resources, and the ultimate collapse of both settlements. A recent archaeological excavation at the Jamestown site showed that English settlers had even resulted to cannibalism, coinciding with period documents and literature that had denoted the same. Additionally, worsening relations and fighting with local Native populations over food shortages had forced settlers to spend long periods within an enclosed fort, further preventing them from harvesting or hunting game, and exacerbating an already dismal situation (Wolfe, 2020).
2.2. Axial Tilt
NASA scientists have pointed out that during the time of the Jamestown settlement, changes to the planet’s axial tilt and how it orbits around the Sun, i.e., orbital forcing, had occurred, further affecting the situation by causing shorter and much colder summer periods with more precipitation than average (Graeber & Wengrow, 2021). More recent studies have also proven that at the time period of the Jamestown settlement it was one of the coldest periods within a millennium. In the case of the older settlement at Roanoke, NASA researchers uncovered that drought was another major issue during the Little Ice Age. Surveillance systems detected that in the latter settlement’s case, the Roanoke colony had experienced the largest drought period within the last 800 years, with the colonists arriving at the very initial stages of a seven-year drought period. In both situations, however, the combination of unusually cold weather, plus war with neighboring indigenous peoples over already scarce resources, led to severe population decreases. Moreover, the conditions of the Little Ice Age caused parasites and mosquitoes to thrive and develop faster and heartier within the marshy geological conditions present at both settlements, further contributing to illness and death (Cronin et al., 2002).
2.3. Pack Ice Movement
Another theory NASA scientists have been investigating concerns pack ice moving in a southwardly direction within the North Atlantic, as did glaciers around Greenland. From radiocarbon dating samples of dead plant material collected from the bottoms of ice caps that died due to glaciation, scientists have discovered that colder summer temperatures and rapid ice growth occurred rather quickly between 1275-1300, followed by a massive increase in glacial activity from 1455 (Broecker, 2000). It was the first cold period that could have triggered and enhanced the large eruption of the Samalas volcano in 1257, which has also been linked as a contributing factor to the long volcanic winter period experienced by early settlers. Moreover, from 1560-1630 scientists additionally discovered that a worldwide glacial expansion had occurred, known as the “Grindelwald Fluctuation”, which also corresponded with this same time period of early English colonization (Hunt & Elliott, 2006).
Ice Age---Link---Alt Causes---1AR
Alt causes overwhelm OR warming causes, not prevents it!
Singh ’23 [Abishek; April 11; software engineer & AI freelancer based in India, “The Next Ice Age: What Could Cause It,” LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/next-ice-age-what-could-cause-abhishek-singh]
The thought of another Ice Age may seem far-fetched to many people. After all, we live in a world that's getting warmer every year, with record-breaking temperatures becoming more and more common. But the truth is that an Ice Age isn't as far away as we might think. In fact, there are several things that could cause another Ice Age to occur, and they might be closer than we realize.
The last Ice Age ended around 10,000 years ago, and it was caused by changes in the Earth's orbit around the sun. However, there are several other factors that could trigger another Ice Age, including changes in the sun's activity, volcanic eruptions, and even human activity.
A decrease in solar activity is one of the main factors that could trigger another Ice Age. The sun goes through cycles of increased and decreased activity, and the Earth's climate can cool significantly during periods of decreased activity. This is due to the sun's magnetic field weakening during these times, allowing more cosmic rays to enter the Earth's atmosphere. These cosmic rays can cause clouds to form, reflecting more sunlight back into space and causing the Earth's temperature to drop.
A large-scale volcanic eruption could also trigger an Ice Age. When a volcano erupts, it can spew massive amounts of ash and gas into the atmosphere, which can block out the sun's rays and cool the Earth's climate. On a smaller scale, in 1816, the eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia caused a "year without a summer" in Europe and North America.
Human activity could also cause another Ice Age. Climate change caused by human greenhouse gas emissions may cause the Earth's climate to cool in unexpected ways. For example, melting ice caps could disrupt ocean currents, causing the North Atlantic to cool and, as a result, the global climate to cool.
Despite the fact that an Ice Age may appear to be a distant possibility, it may occur sooner than we think. The Earth's climate is a complex system that can be influenced by a variety of factors, and even minor changes can have a significant impact. We may be setting the stage for another Ice Age if we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and disrupt natural systems. It is our responsibility to take action to reduce these risks and ensure that our planet is habitable for future generations.
Ice Age---Link---Alt Causes---Axial Tilt---1AR
Banaji says axial tilt---warming triggers unpredictable shifts that make their impact inevitable.
Bartels ’21 [Meghan; April 22; senior writer and experienced science journalist in New York City, MA in science journalism from NYU, BA in classics from Georgetown University, “Climate change has altered the Earth’s tilt,” Space.com, https://www.space.com/climate-change-tilting-earth-axis]
Earth's poles are moving — and that's normal. But new research suggests that within just decades, climate change and human water use have given the poles' wandering an additional nudge.
Any object's spin is affected by how its weight is distributed. Earth's weight distribution is always changing, it turns out, as the planet's molten innards roil and its surface morphs. Water is a key influencer, since it's so heavy. In the past two decades, two supersensitive NASA satellite missions — the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor — have analyzed this shifting weight, but those observations began only in 2002.
In the new research, scientists were particularly focused on shifts in Earth's tilt in the 1990s, before that satellite data existed. Instead, the researchers turned to observations of the water itself — measurements of ice loss and statistics on groundwater pumped out for human use — to combine with studies of how the poles drifted, according to a statement released by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), which published the new research in one of its journals.
And drift the poles did: In 1995, polar drift changed direction completely, and between that year and 2020, the speed of the pole movement increased about 17 times compared to the average speed measured between 1981 and 1995, according to the AGU.
By combining the polar drift data with the water data, the researchers showed that most of the pole movement was triggered by water loss from polar regions — that'll be ice melting off land and flowing into the oceans — with smaller input from water loss in other regions, where humans pull groundwater up to use.
Intriguingly, there are plenty more pole-drift observations where these came from: according to the AGU, researchers have measured the phenomenon for 176 years. Those data and the new methods could help scientists track water movement before good records of ice loss and groundwater use begin. "The findings offer a clue for studying past climate-driven polar motion," Suxia Liu, a hydrologist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the corresponding author of the new study, said in the AGU statement.
Ice Age---Link---Alt Causes---Volcanoes---1AR
Banaji says volcanoes---warming compounds both speed and scale of eruptions!
Sneed ’17 [Annie; December 21; science journalist for Scientific American and the New York Times based in San Francisco, “Get Ready for More Volcanic Eruptions as the Planet Warms,” Scientific American, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/get-ready-for-more-volcanic-eruptions-as-the-planet-warms/]
When the scientists compared the volcanic record with glacial coverage, they found the number of eruptions indeed dropped significantly as the climate cooled and ice expanded. “There’s a big change in the record in the mid-Holocene [epoch], where we see no volcanic ash in Europe and very little in Iceland,” says Swindles, an associate professor of Earth system dynamics at the University of Leeds. “This seems to overlap with a time where there’s cold climate conditions, which would have favored glacial advance in Iceland.” He says his team observed an approximately 600-year lag between when glaciers advanced and volcanic activity diminished. “That’s because it takes a long time to grow ice masses,” he explains.
The new study is “looking at maybe the smallest-magnitude climate change yet to show it has influence on volcanic activity,” says Ben Edwards, an associate professor of geology at Dickinson College. “To see this change in an interglacial period indicates that there’s an even more subtle relationship between climate change and volcanism” than scientists previously thought. Julie Schindlbeck, a volcanologist at Heidelberg University in Germany, says the work shows “maybe even small changes in ice volume can really affect volcanism.”
Although scientists do not fully understand why glaciers appear to weaken volcanic eruptions, they believe the mechanics may be fairly straightforward. When glaciers expand, all that ice puts immense pressure on Earth’s surface. “It can affect magma flow and the voids and gaps in the Earth where magma flows to the surface as well as how much magma the crust can actually hold,” Swindles says. When glaciers retreat, the pressure lifts and volcanic activity surges. “After glaciers are removed the surface pressure decreases, and the magmas more easily propagate to the surface and thus erupt,” Swindles wrote in an e-mail to Scientific American.
This is exactly what he and his team found when they looked at what ha

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