AT Recruitment DA - Michigan 7 2023 BEKS

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n/u—recruitment low—2ac
Recruitment low—Eligibility, Afghanistan, public opinion, military culture
Barno et al., 23 – (David Barno and Nora Bensahel, retired lieutenant general of the army and Ph.d. in international studies, expert on US defense policy. “Addressing the U.S. Military Recruiting Crisis,” War on the Rocks, 3-10-2023, Available Online: https://warontherocks.com/2023/03/addressing-the-u-s-military-recruiting-crisis/, Accessed: 6-25-2023)//ILake-FI
Why is this happening now? Part of it, no doubt, is that the end of the war in Afghanistan makes military service seem less compelling. For the first time in almost 20 years, American troops are no longer fighting abroad to keep insurgents and terrorists at bay. Unemployment is low, which always makes it harder to recruit — and the tight labor market has also forced many companies to increase wages and offer compelling incentives to attract the best talent. But two other sets of factors are interacting in complex ways that make it almost impossible to determine which are having the greatest effect.
First, the number of young people who are eligible to serve in the military dropped precipitously last year — from an already low figure of 29 percent to a shocking 23 percent — largely due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Levels of depression, anxiety, and other mental health conditions exploded among young Americans (and many not-so-young Americans), who faced sometimes extreme levels of social isolation. School closures and remote instruction have caused test scores to decline dramatically throughout the country (and the world), and scores on the ASVAB, the military’s standardized test for potential recruits, declined by as much as 9 percent. Shuttered schools also made it extremely difficult for recruiters to meet with young people and develop the personal relationships that are so essential for their jobs. And youth obesity rates — which have long been one of the biggest reasons for military ineligibility — increased from 19 percent to 22 percent during the pandemic. Few of these statistics will rebound quickly — and some may never recover to their pre-pandemic levels.
Though improving eligibility is extremely important, as we discuss below, it alone cannot solve the recruiting crisis. The second, and much more challenging, factor involves military propensity — the number of young people who are interested in serving in the military. Only 13 percent of young Americans said they would consider military service before the pandemic, and that already paltry figure shrank to just 9 percent last year. That number is simply not high enough to ensure the stable flow of recruits upon which the all-volunteer force relies. Two sets of survey data help explain why propensity may be declining.
First, the number of Americans expressing confidence in the U.S. military has plummeted in the past few years. To be clear, American confidence in almost all major U.S. institutions has declined, with data from Gallup showing that it reached an all-time average low of just 27 percent in 2022. Compared to that dismal statistic, the fact that 64 percent of survey respondents expressed confidence in the military last year is a strong endorsement indeed. Yet that figure was 72 percent in 2020 and 69 percent in 2021 — marking an 8 percentage point drop in only two years. More disturbingly, the Reagan National Defense Survey found even steeper declines, with confidence in the U.S. military dropping from 70 percent in 2018 to just 45 percent in 2021 (before rebounding slightly to 48 percent in 2022).
Second, there are some early indications that fewer people in and around the military are willing to recommend military service to young people. In 2019, almost 75 percent of military families said they would recommend military service to someone they care about. Yet that figure dropped to just under 63 percent in 2021, another sharp decline in just two years. Since 80 percent of the young people who join the military today have a family member in the military — and 25–30 percent have a parent in the military — it may well be that more military families are steering their children away from uniformed service toward civilian careers.
It’s difficult to assess the exact causes of these rapidly declining numbers, since as with eligibility, many different trends are converging at once. The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan is almost certainly one of the reasons, as most Americans disapproved of the way in which the Biden administration executed the withdrawal (including many who generally supported the decision to withdraw). Another is the increasing perception that U.S. military leaders are becoming too involved in politics, partly due to several controversies surrounding Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. And the ever-increasing rates of sexual assault in the military became far more widely known after the tragic disappearance and death of Specialist Vanessa Guillen in 2020, and the subsequent disciplining of 14 Army officials at Fort Hood. Indeed, in a fall 2021 survey, 30 percent of Americans aged 16 to 24 said that the possibility of sexual harassment or assault was one of the main reasons why they would not consider joining the U.S. military. (The Guillen case also led Congress to pass sweeping reforms of the military justice system last year, which may eventually help alleviate such concerns.)
Furthermore, partisans on both sides of the political divide are publicly highlighting different problems facing the military, which may deter their followers (and their followers’ children) from considering military service. Democrats, for example, have publicly expressed worries about the small but significant problem of extremists in the military. Many Democrats, especially Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, have also long criticized the military’s seeming inability to make significant progress addressing its problems with sexual harassment and assault, and they may continue to do so if the judicial reforms mentioned above prove insufficient.
Those comparatively outweigh the link
Bloomberg 22 (Michael R. Bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, and UN Special Envoy on Climate Ambition and Solutions. “Military Recruitment Woes Endanger National Security” 8/8/2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-08/us-military-has-a-recruitment-and-retention-problem-here-s-how-to-fix-it)
On current trends, the outlook is troubling. To meet its overall goal of an active-duty force of 1.3 million, the military needs to bring in roughly 150,000 new recruits across its six service branches. With two months left in the fiscal year, the Pentagon is still 15% short of that goal, with the largest service, the Army, facing the biggest shortfall. Through the end of June, the Army had signed up 22,000 troops, 60% below its annual target. It could end the year with as few as 445,000 troops, nearly 40,000 smaller than the force size authorized by Congress. A tight labor market is one reason for this state of affairs, but the bigger problem is the shrinking pool recruiters are drawing from. Because of rising rates of youth obesity and drug use, the share of Americans aged 17 to 24 who are eligible to serve without a waiver has fallen to 23%. Discounting those already enrolled in college, the number is only 12%. The military estimates that among those who are eligible, a mere 9% have a “propensity” to serve, the lowest since 2007, during the height of the Iraq War.
n/u—recruitment low—1ar—eligibility
Recruitment crisis now—eligibility and lack of interest
Michelle Kurilla, 6-16-2023, "The President's Inbox Recap: The U.S. Military Recruiting Crisis," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/presidents-inbox-recap-us-military-recruiting-crisis
The size of the U.S. armed forces is shrinking as a result. The Army, for example, had to cut its active-duty end-strength this year to 466,000 from 476,000 last year because it missed its recruiting goal by 25 percent. This has the Department of Defense worried. As Nora put it, in an era of great power completion, “the risk is if the US military is too small to conduct the kinds of missions that it needs to conduct in future wars, that that will go badly for the United States.” Many factors contribute to the military’s recruiting troubles. The percentage of Americans of service age who are eligible to serve in the armed forces is the lowest it’s ever been. It dropped from 29 percent in recent years to 23 percent last year. Fewer young Americans meet the military basic fitness standards, and more young Americans have used drugs. While marijuana is legal in twenty-one states plus the District of Columbia, its use is still disqualifying when it comes to joining the military. The decline in the percentage of Americans eligible to serve in the military has become accompanied by a declining interest in service. Just 9 percent of Americans of service age say they want to serve, down from 23 percent a few years ago. A mix of factors looks to be a work. A robust job market reduces the economic incentive to join the military. The political right has raised concerns of “wokeism,” while the political left has raised concerns about far-right extremism among service members. And the military’s well-documented problems in curbing sexual harassment and assault, epitomized by the murder of Army solider Vanessa Guillén, has likely discouraged many young women from wanting to join the military.
Obesity, drugs, and mental illness thump
Beynon 5/2/23
[Steve Beynon, reporter for Military.com specialized in ground combat. Previously covered Capitol Hill and the Department of Veterans Affairs for Stars and Stripes, Politico, The Washington Examiner, National Guard Magazine, Military Times, Cincinnati Enquirer, and Fox 19, is an Afghanistan war veteran, and a current non-commissioned officer in the National Guard. Bachelor’s degree in journalism and environmental policy from the University of Cincinnati] 5/2/2023, accessed 6/24/2023, “Army Expects to Miss Its Recruiting Goal Again This Year”, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/02/we-are-going-fall-short-army-will-miss-its-recruiting-goal-year.html - JR
Army planners estimate only about 23% of 17- to 24-year-olds can meet the service's expectations, with many applicants failing the military's SAT-style entrance exam or being too overweight to serve. In August, to combat the worsening recruiting trends, the Army started the Future Soldier Preparatory Course. There, applicants who came up just shy on body fat or academic standards attend a pre-basic training course for whichever of those two standards they didn't satisfy for enlistment. Army leaders have touted the program as graduating roughly 3,300 out of 4,000 applicants who went onto basic training and who otherwise would not have been allowed to serve. Right now, the course is set to be able to train roughly 12,000 applicants per year. The Navy also started its own pre-basic courses in March. But that program can help with only one part of the worsening recruiting picture. Recruiters are reporting an issue with increased scrutiny on applicants' medical and mental health history, with issues such as years-old minor injuries or common prescriptions causing major headaches. Last year, the Pentagon launched Military Health System Genesis, a new electronic health record system, which gave the military unprecedented access to an applicant's medical and mental health background during the recruiting process -- especially for recruits from military families who received prior military medical care. Previously, minor health issues were largely overlooked during the enlistment process, often by the recruiter, as any snags could delay the recruiting process by months or make an applicant ineligible altogether. Army leaders, including Wormuth and Gen. James McConville, the service's top officer, have routinely said they will not lower the standards required for enlisting or commissioning. Meanwhile, the Navy has been more welcoming to applicants with low entrance exam test scores, and the Air Force and Space Force have been more forgiving with applicants who test positive for cannabis use during the enlistment process, as every service faces recruiting headwinds. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 22% of 12- to 19-year-old Americans are obese, and that percentage only climbs with age. SAT and ACT scores have also fallen in recent years, some of that being attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic's disruption of schools and poor access to quality education resources for children from low-income households. As test scores have plummeted and the obesity crisis has grown only more severe in the last decade, the Army has required soldiers to be more technically savvy. Noncommissioned officers are also increasingly expected to have a college degree and writing skills. And the Army Combat Fitness Test, or ACFT, is widely seen as the most comprehensive and difficult fitness test in the service's history, demanding troops diversify workout routines.
n/u—recruitment low—1ar—interest
Recruitment low – mistrust, retirement, perception
Irving & Quackenbush May 2023
[Geoff Irving and Taylor Quackenbush, Marine Corps veterans and writers for the USNI who focus on national security issues] may 2023, “Three Bold Changes to Improve Military Recruiting”, accessed 6/25/2023, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/may/three-bold-changes-improve-military-recruiting - JR
Three commonly-cited causes of declining recruiting and retention metrics are: 1) mistrust in military officers, 2) the Blended Retirement System (BRS), and 3) a senior officer and political class with a perceived reputation for war mongering. These arguments can be countered with productive policy recommendations to 1) improve military recruiting competence, 2) enhance service member compensation, and 3) reevaluate the military “garrison” lifestyle.
Stress, distrust, and fear of death thump
Baldor 23
[Lolita Baldor, the military/national security reporter for The Associated Press since 2005, Bachelor’s degree in journalism from Michigan State University AND the Associated Press, do I really need to tell you who they are] 2/13/23, “Don’t blame ‘wokeness’ for the Army’s recruitment woes, says the Army”, accessed 6/25/2023, https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/wokeness-army-military-recruitment-failures-trouble-young-people-attitudes-survey-data/ - JR
While some Republicans blame the COVID-19 vaccine or “wokeness” for the Army’s recruiting woes, the military service says the bigger hurdles are more traditional ones: Young people don’t want to die or get injured, deal with the stress of Army life and put their lives on hold. They “just don’t see the Army as something that’s relevant,” said Maj. Gen. Alex Fink, head of Army marketing. “They see us as revered, but not relevant, in their lives.” Addressing those longtime issues has taken on greater urgency as the Army tries to recover from its worst recruiting year in decades, a situation aggravated by the tight jobs market. The Army is offering new programs, advertising and enticements in an effort to change perceptions and reverse the decline. One incentive gives recruiters bonuses of up to $4,500 per quarter if they exceed their baseline enlistment requirement. A pilot program allows young enlisted soldiers — those in the three lower ranks — to get a promotion if they refer someone who enlists and goes to basic training. Only one promotion per soldier is allowed. The Army fell about 15,000 soldiers, or 25%, short of its 60,000 recruitment goal last year, when all the branches struggled to meet recruiting goals. Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said the Army has set a difficult goal for this year: aiming to bring in 65,000 recruits, which would be 20,000 more than in 2022. It’s difficult to predict how it will go, she said, adding that recruiters need to do all they can to surpass last year’s numbers. “I would say it is a stretch goal,” she said. Wormuth said she and Gen. James McConville, the Army’s chief of staff, believed they needed to set a big goal. “I think we are seeing some forward momentum. But it is still too early to tell where we will likely land at the end of this fiscal year. I know we will do better than we did last year,” she said. Guiding the Army’s efforts are surveys intended to help pinpoint why young people dismiss the Army as a career. Those surveys were conducted over four months last spring and summer. They involved about 600 respondents, ages 16 to 28, per month. The Army discussed the general findings with The Associated Press but declined to provide detailed methodology, saying the surveys were done by a private research contractor and that licensing agreements limited the public release of some data collection details. Officials said that based on the surveys, young people simply do not see the Army as a safe place or good career path, and believe they would have to put their lives and careers on hold if they enlisted. Army leaders said very few say they are deterred from enlisting due to “wokeness.” In fact, concerns about discrimination against women and minorities is seen as a bigger issue, along with a more general distrust of the military. “Wokeness” is a slang term that originally described attentiveness to issues of racial and social justice. Some people and groups, especially conservatives, now use it in a derogatory sense implying what they see as overreactions. Republicans in Congress, including Rep. Jim Banks, chairman of the House Armed Services subcommittee on military personnel, have pledged to target “wokeness” this year. Banks, R-Ind., has said “exposing and dismantling the Biden administration’s woke agenda that is driving down military recruitment and retention” will be a top priority for him this year. His spokesman, Buckley Carlson, said combating “wokeness” at the Defense Department will be a key issue for the congressman. Banks and others have complained about the Pentagon’s efforts to target extremism in the military, provide courses in critical race theory and other efforts to expand diversity. They say focusing on partisan issues pushed by the left takes away from the Pentagon’s core missions, weakens the military and turns off recruits. But the Army says that on average, only 5% of the respondents in the surveys listed “wokeness” as an issue, compared with 13% who say they believe that women and minorities will face discrimination and not get the same opportunities. Wormuth said the survey data is a tool to “assuage the concerns that some may have, whether influencers or members of Congress, about wokeness or the vaccine mandate — which is now rescinded — and show they are not, by any means, primary drivers of the recruiting challenges we’re experiencing.” She said the information from the surveys also provides insight on how the Army needs to better explain its benefits. Fink, the Army’s marketing head, said the top three reasons young people cite for rejecting military enlistment are the same across all the services: fear of death, worries about post-traumatic stress disorder and leaving friends and family — in that order. He said the Army wanted a better understanding of any additional barriers to service, beyond those top three.
n/u—recruitment low—1ar—stats
Recruiting is at an all-time low
Morgan, 22, Ryan comes from a Navy family with a long history of service and is a reporter for American military news, 10/3/2022, “Army misses annual recruitment by massive 25%; worst miss ever”, https://americanmilitaerynews.com/2022/10/army-misses-annual-recruitment-by-massive-25-worst-miss-ever/, -FT
The U.S. Army missed its 2022 recruiting goal by 15,000 troops, marking a 25 percent miss from the 60,000 new soldiers it sought to rec

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