DA - Saudi Israel Politics - Michigan 7 2023 BFHGR

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It’s a White House priority – Biden is working overtime to resolve potential objections from Congress – now is key he must block Saudi opponents from limiting arms sales and the window for progress narrows as elections near
Wilkinson 6/13
Tracy, LA Times, “Pariah or partner? U.S. navigates complicated, contradictory relationship with Saudi Arabia” June 13, 2023 https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-06-13/saudi-arabia-u-s-navigates-complicated-contradictory-relationship dmr
WASHINGTON — Visits to Saudi Arabia by high-profile U.S. officials are always problematic. The two countries have a love-hate relationship. Politicians and the public criticize the Saudi kingdom’s human rights record and repression of women; its unwillingness to increase oil production; its coziness with Russia, China and, now, even with erstwhile enemy Iran. But the U.S. and Saudi Arabia also need each other — for trade and for broader security arrangements in the Middle East, including conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, where they work together to broker cease-fires or deliver humanitarian aid to devastated populations. And the Biden administration is fervently coaxing Riyadh to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, following similar Trump-era breakthrough gestures by a small number of other gulf or Muslim nations. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken wrapped up a four-day visit to the Saudi cities of Jeddah and Riyadh last week, which included a midnight meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Salman, the de facto ruler of the nation, is a ruthless dictator, a bold reformer or both, depending on whom you ask. The 37-year-old prince is largely considered responsible for the brutal killing and dismemberment of U.S.-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018. President Biden once called Salman a pariah and vowed to shun him, a pledge eventually reversed in a famous fist bump between the two last year. Executions of perceived enemies of the kingdom have surged under Salman’s rule, human rights activists say, and reports of arbitrary detention and torture of activists, including many women, persist — even as he lifted some anachronistic restrictions on women, such as allowing them to drive cars. Despite the litany of Saudi transgressions, the Biden administration is engaging with the kingdom as a way to demonstrate it still has influence in the Middle East — at a time many in the region note Washington has been absent in consequential events and decisions and as China and Russia flex their diplomatic and military muscle where the U.S. was once the unrivaled superpower. “I would say that my presence here over the last three days is one element to demonstrate that, no, we’re certainly not leaving. We’re here to stay,” Blinken told the Saudi-based Asharq News network Thursday when asked about the U.S. commitment to the region. “Day in, day out, we’re working with partners throughout the region … both to deal with many of the challenges that … are real and urgent and acute, but also — and this is so important — on an affirmative agenda for the future,” Blinken added. “We are a partner, and we’re here.” Blinken, in a separate news conference in Riyadh, said he “discussed” human rights in his meetings with Salman and other Saudi officials and “made clear that progress on human rights strengthens our relationship.” He said he raised “specific” cases, including those of several U.S. citizens who are imprisoned in the kingdom, but would not say whether he had secured guarantees of their freedom nor would he enter into any other details. Critics accuse the Biden administration of papering over Saudi abuses and fault it for not denouncing them more robustly, which in turn emboldens Salman. “The administration needs to abandon its behind-closed-doors approach to addressing human rights” in Saudi Arabia, said Tess McEnery, who served on Biden’s National Security Council until last year and now heads the nongovernmental Project on Middle East Democracy. “There need to be clear public costs to [Salman’s] repression. … For nearly a year [since the Biden visit], we’ve seen what a policy of appeasement looks like.” The Biden administration sanctioned some members of the Saudi security apparatus for the 2018 murder of Washington Post contributing columnist Khashoggi, but not Salman, whom U.S. intelligence officials believe probably ordered the killing. In Congress, lawmakers have revived legislation that could block arms sales to Saudi Arabia based on its human rights record, and two measures have been proposed that would punish governments for “transnational repression,” the illegal pursuit by a country outside its borders of dissidents or critics, as happened with Khashoggi. It is a tactic also frequently used by Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government has been accused of hunting down and poisoning opponents in England and elsewhere. While in Saudi Arabia last week, Blinken also came under criticism for praising what he called Saudi “progress” on its treatment of women, lauding the first female Saudi astronaut to go into space and meeting with eight handpicked Saudi women identified by the State Department as leaders. Blinken’s remarks came even as numerous Saudi women are being given decades-long prison sentences for what supporters say are minor offenses, such as failing to wear an abaya on social media or tweeting criticisms of the kingdom. Substantial progress for women “is only a narrative that the Saudi government is selling to the West,” Lina AlHathloul, a longtime Saudi activist fighting for women’s rights and free speech, said in an interview from Brussels, where she has sought refuge from her government. “It is only window dressing. … And the government sees a green light to double down on repression.” AlHathloul campaigned for years to free her sister Loujain, who was arrested in 2018 for driving. Loujain is out of prison now but banned from traveling or speaking publicly. Though women have been granted the right to drive and some access to elections, Saudi Arabia’s so-called guardianship rules remain in place, which restrict many activities such as travel or marriage for women without a male relative’s permission. Saudi officials insist that they have made significant progress in human rights, but will only advance on their own terms. “We are always open to having a dialogue with our friends, but we don’t respond to pressure,” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said at the Riyadh news conference with Blinken. “When we do anything, we do it in our own interests. And I don’t think that anybody believes that pressure is useful or helpful, and therefore that’s not something that we are going to even consider.” One reason the Biden administration seeks to keep its relationship with Saudi Arabia on a cordial keel is the role the oil-rich kingdom can play in integrating Israel into a region that has long refused to recognize Israel’s existence. The Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords, under which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for the first time opened diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. As the powerhouse of the gulf, Saudi Arabia would be a prized addition to the declaration, but it is so far resisting. Saudi officials cite the continued failure to resolve the Palestinian quest for an independent state. Riyadh has also listed a series of high-stake demands, including U.S. help in developing nuclear power, but U.S. officials see that as an opening gambit. Meanwhile, the current Israeli government is the most right-wing in its history, with possibilities for progress on the Palestinian cause considered nonexistent. In Riyadh last week, Blinken said Saudi-Israeli normalization remained a “priority.” But the Saudi foreign minister countered that while desirable, the goal would remain remote “without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people … a pathway towards a two-state solution, on finding a pathway towards giving the Palestinians dignity and justice.” It would also be a bad look for the Saudis to get closer to Israel at a time when deadly clashes and attacks are surging in Israel, the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and after several incursions by Israeli police into the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, said Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. Al Aqsa is the third-holiest site in Islam, located in an area also sacred to Jews. “The Saudis are not in a hurry to normalize,” he said, even as “the Biden administration has prioritized it higher on the list than [an independent state] for the Palestinians, which is now just a talking point.” Shira Efron, research director at the U.S.-based Israel Policy Forum, said that while Israel badly wants to enjoy the fruits of normalization, the pieces of the puzzle remain exceedingly complicated, with U.S. and Israel reluctant to accede to the Saudis’ most robust demands. “And if the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were able to agree on what the U.S. will give, would Congress approve?” she said, adding that room for negotiation is likely to shrink as the U.S. presidential election gets into full swing.
Biden’s pc is key – Biden is focused on securing bipartisan support for security agreements – it will be a heavy lift
Ravid 5/17
Barak, Contributing Correspondent at Axios based in Tel-Aviv, “Biden admin pushing for Saudi-Israeli peace deal by end of year, officials say” May 17, 2023 https://www.axios.com/2023/05/17/saudi-arabia-israel-peace-normalization-deal-biden-admin dmr
The White House wants to make a diplomatic push for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal in the next six to seven months before the presidential election campaign consumes President Biden’s agenda, two U.S. officials with knowledge of the issue told Axios. Why it matters: Any normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel brokered by the U.S. will likely include an upgrade in U.S.-Saudi relations and a package of tangible deliverables from the U.S. government. Such a deal could be unpopular among Democrats and might cost Biden a lot of political capital. Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for Khashoggi's murder — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies. But a deal could be a historic breakthrough in Middle East peace, leading to a domino effect of more Arab and Muslim-majority countries normalizing relations with Israel and putting U.S.-Saudi relations back on track. Driving the news: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with MBS last week in Jeddah and, among other issues, discussed the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization, the U.S. officials said. After the meeting, White House Middle East czar Brett McGurk and Biden’s senior adviser Amos Hochstein traveled to Jerusalem and briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Behind the scenes: According to the two U.S. officials, Sullivan told MBS the U.S. thinks there is an opportunity to get a Saudi-Israeli deal by the end of the year. MBS said he doesn’t want to take any more incremental steps toward warming relations with Israel, but instead, work toward one big package that will include U.S. deliverables like stronger military cooperation, one U.S. official said. The Saudi Embassy in Washington did not respond to specific questions related to this story. Two senior U.S. officials said it's in Saudi Arabia's interest to get a normalization agreement with Israel while President Biden is in office because it would receive more bipartisan political support and legitimacy in Washington, especially when it is likely to include U.S. steps toward Saudi Arabia that would be unpopular. While Republicans in Congress generally support a deal with Saudi Arabia, many Democrats who are critical of the kingdom will only support such an agreement if done under a president of their own party, the two U.S. officials said. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who visited Saudi Arabia and Israel several weeks before Sullivan’s trip, met MBS in Jeddah and gave him a similar message about getting a deal with Biden. "I told the crown prince that the best time to upgrade our relationship is now, that President Biden is very interested in normalizing relationships with Saudi Arabia and, in turn, Saudi Arabia recognizing [Israel]," Graham said in a statement after his meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem several days after he met MBS. “I believe that the Republican Party, writ large, would be glad to work with President Biden to change the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia," he added. What they're saying: A National Security Council spokesperson said the White House "does not comment on the content of private diplomatic discussions." "The United States is fully committed to strengthening and expanding the Abraham Accords and supporting Israel’s integration into the Middle East," the spokesperson added. "This will be an area of continued emphasis and focus for us over the coming period as we look to achieve a more integrated, more prosperous, and more stable region that serves the interests of our partners and the United States over the long term." Between the lines: A senior Israeli official told Axios he agrees with this analysis and also stressed the Saudis would be better off cutting a deal with a Democratic president. The Israeli official compared it to Netanyahu’s decision to get the security assistance deal with President Obama in 2016 and not waiting for a possible electoral win by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. “The fact we got the deal with Obama strengthened support by Democrats in Congress for U.S. military aid to Israel," the official said. Israel sees Saudi Arabia as the “holy grail” of its outreach to the Arab world and has long wanted to normalize relations with the kingdom, especially since the signing of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020. State of play: U.S. officials say that one of the biggest hurdles to getting a wide-ranging deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel has to do with the Saudi request to upgrade is military cooperation with the U.S. and gain access to sophisticated U.S. weapon systems it doesn't currently have. The Saudis also want to be able to purchase munitions from the U.S. for their air force after such sales were suspended by the Biden administration weeks after the president assumed office due to the war in Yemen. U.S. and Israeli officials say the truce in Yemen, which was boosted by the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, creates better conditions for improving U.S.-Saudi ties and for moving forward with such a deal. U.S. and Israeli officials say another hurdle is the Saudi request to get U.S. support for a Saudi nuclear program that will include uranium enrichment. The possibility of Saudi Arabia developing a nuclear energy program, including independent uranium enrichment, is a matter of serious concern for Israel, but Israeli officials say there are several possible solutions that are being discussed to mitigate the nuclear proliferation concerns. What to watch: Any deal will likely include a “Palestinian component” that Israel will have to agree to. The Saudis said publicly that normalization with Israel will take place only if there is progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It is unclear what the Saudis and the U.S. will ask for and how far Netanyahu’s far-right government will go to secure a deal.
An Iran war is inevitable absent normalization – Biden has to broker a deal to get Saudi Arabia on board
Yaakov Katz, 5-25-2023, former fellow at the Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University and was a faculty member at Harvard's Extension School, "What will come first: War with Iran or peace with Saudi Arabia?," The Jerusalem Post, https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-744131, KL
Title: What will come first: War with Iran or peace with Saudi Arabia?
Like many things in the Middle East, timing is rarely a coincidence. On Tuesday, as IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi was addressing a conference in Herzliya where he issued a threat to attack Iran, a mysterious explosion took place at a chemical factory about 100 km west of Tehran.
Israel has the ability to strike Iran, Halevi said, just as reports came out of the explosion. Was one connected to the other? Even if the chemical blast was not caused by Israel, the timing was hard to ignore and in the Middle East, sometimes perception is all that is needed.
What is also hard to ignore is the escalation in Israeli threats over the last few days. Before Halevi, Military Intelligence chief Maj.-Gen. Aharon Haliva addressed the conference and warned that Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is close to a mistake that could lead to a massive war with Israel. As Halevi clarified in his speech, such a war would be painful for Israel, but it would be doubly painful for Lebanon and even more so for Hezbollah.
Based on the two speeches and the timing of the mysterious chemical blast, one could get the impression that a conflict is quickly brewing beneath the surface and just waiting to erupt. While this might be the case, what is more likely happening here is the rollout of a public relations campaign by the IDF brass aimed at ensuring the opposite – that such a war does not happen.
Will Israel go to war with Iran?
There is little doubt in Israel that an overt and direct clash with Iran will happen one day. It could be over its nuclear program – if the ayatollahs decide to break out to a bomb and Israel decides to attack – or if an Israeli strike in Syria, for example, spills over into Iran and draws a retaliation. Iran has an open account with Israel over the number of soldiers that have been killed in recent years – mostly in Syria – and it has in the past tried to avenge those deaths. A successful Iranian attack would force Israel to respond, and such a response might not be limited to Syria.
The same is true for Hezbollah. When a member of the Iran-backed group snuck into Israel in March and detonated a sizeable explosive device, thankfully it only wounded one person. Imagine that it had done much more. Would Israel have been able to restrain itself? It likely would have needed to do something against Hezbollah in Lebanon and, if that were to have happened, a larger conflict would have been as close to a fait accompli as is possible.
The messages from Halevi and Haliva are heard loud and clear on the other side. The drill Hezbollah guerillas held along the border in recent days to simulate a cross-border infiltration into an Israeli town, as well as the satellite footage revealed by AP of Iranian construction deep underground near its nuclear facility at Natanz, are just the latest illustrations of how this battle is playing out.
For now, all sides are calculated in what they do and within Military Intelligence there is no hard piece of intelligence that says Iran is breaking out in the coming weeks to a bomb or Hezbollah is about to invade Israel. On the other hand, as seen in the past, sometimes conflagrations happen in this region even when they are not intended. Mistakes and miscalculations are made and the next thing we see are rockets being launched. That can happen once again.
Will Israel normalize ties with Saudi Arabia?
ON MONDAY night, Lahav Harkov published a story in these pages revealing that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held two phone calls in recent weeks with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed Bin Salman. The calls were said to have been facilitated by Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, whose country Israel already has diplomatic relations with under the 2020 Abraham Accords.
The report was not surprising – Netanyahu visited Saudi Arabia at the end of 2020 and met wit

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