AI Patents Aff Supplement - GDI 2024

AI Aff
AI Climate Scenario
1AC — Climate Scenario
Scenario ___ is Climate.
1—AI accelerated R&D key to innovation in the climate sector.
Wegner et al., Project Leader with the Boston Consulting Group, focusing on artificial intelligence, climate adaptation, and nature & biodiversity, 2024
[Joe, “Post breakthrough: How AI can lift climate research out of the lab and into the real world” World Economic Forum, May 29, 2024, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/05/ai-lift-climate-research-out-lab-and-real-world/ Accessed 7.22.24 GDI-HB]
3. Accelerating the prototyping phase of technology development
AI is revolutionizing R&D in scientific domains, including climate change. However, the translation from fundamental research to tangible climate solutions is not always clear. The deep tech cycle – the path from research to prototype – can be lengthy and expensive. These concerns are particularly urgent, as we are “minutes to midnight” on breaking key warming thresholds.
AI can shorten the deep tech cycle, particularly in prototyping, speeding up the introduction of essential technologies. In materials science, AI accelerates discovery and design, crucial for climate mitigation (such as improving lithium-ion batteries and solar cells) and adaptation (developing fire-resistant materials). Traditional methods, which calculate material properties from scratch, consume significant time, costs and computational resources. Up to one-third of global supercomputing power is used for materials science.
AI now predicts new material properties without exhaustive initial calculations. It does this by learning relationships between atomic structures and their properties, and suggesting optimal configurations. While this is a nascent space with limitations (e.g. documented “hallucinations” in discovery processes), there is significant potential for innovation. For example, GenAI is tackling the inverse design problem, which starts with a desired property (e.g. resilience to extreme weather) and reverse-engineers its design.
Climate AI ecosystem
AI development is moving fast. But just because the underlying technology is developing rapidly does not mean its applications will, too. The current paradigm of AI development – characterized by scale and general knowledge (e.g. broad-based LLMs) – may find natural applications in basic research and other domains that rely on theoretical knowledge. However, the climate crisis is not theoretical. It is a geophysical reality and demands practical tools and use-cases.
An ecosystem approach is needed to deliver the use-cases highlighted in this article. In the past, ecosystems have proven successful in tackling multifaceted challenges such as developing an open-source operating system, rebuilding the ozone layer and mapping the human genome. All of these distinctive efforts were characterized by multi-stakeholder participation, open data sharing and precompetitive collaboration.
Leaders must, therefore, step up to build ecosystems for AI and climate change. The World Economic Forum’s Tech for Climate Adaptation Initiative helps enable this necessary environment by convening players from big technology, startups, academia, government and other stakeholders.
The initiative’s latest project, the Action Toolkit, guides how AI and other advanced technologies can be leveraged for concrete, climate-related activities. In the future, the initiative will continue to promote collaboration and showcase technology’s potential across the innovation cycle, from R&D to downstream use cases. AI may very well be the breakthrough climate change needs – but this will only be the beginning.
2—The brink is now—most recent existential tipping points threaten survival of humanity and the planet.
Rao, staff writer at The Week covering science, the environment, climate and business, 2024
[Devika, “10 looming climate tipping points that imperil our planet” The Week, July 1, 2024, https://theweek.com/environment/climate-tipping-points-un-report, Accessed 7.22.24 GDI-HB]
The world is rapidly approaching the "brink of multiple risk tipping points," the United Nations said in its 2023 Interconnected Disaster Risks report. Risk tipping points, the U.N. said, are "when the systems that we rely on for our lives and societies cannot buffer risks and stop functioning." Throw in accelerating climate change, and "the very practical consequence will be that much more people will live under very precarious conditions — so loss of life, loss of livelihood and loss of opportunities," Zita Sebesvari, one of the lead authors of the report, said to the Los Angeles Times. "It does have cascading impacts."
A new report by the University of Exeter Global Systems Institute specifically pointed to three broad areas where tipping points are concentrated: the cryosphere, the biosphere and the ocean and atmosphere. The world is soon to meet several tipping points but we can still "take decisive actions to avert the worst of these impacts, and perhaps even forge a new path toward a bright, sustainable and equitable future," the U.N. report said.
Cryosphere tipping points
Mountain glaciers melting: As aquifers empty, the world's glaciers are "melting at double the speed they had in the past two decades," the U.N. report said. That increases the amount of freshwater in the short term — sometimes too much, causing flooding — but "many of those glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, the Himalayas and the Andes feed into these rivers and groundwater systems," Caitlyn Eberle, one of the lead authors of the U.N. report, said to Reuters. "So as those glaciers disappear, there is less water available." Many glacier-fed areas are rapidly approaching or have already reached "peak water," the point of maximum meltwater a glacier produces before its freshwater output steadily declines. Meltwater is crucial to sustaining certain regions during dry seasons with low rainfall.
Greenland ice sheet collapsing: The Greenland ice sheet is a staggering 1.71 million square kilometers, only second in size to the Antarctic ice sheet. The sheet is also losing mass as the climate warms and "substantial ice loss is likely irreversible on multi-millennial timescales," said the University of Exeter report. A collapsing Greenland ice sheet raises the likelihood of sea-level rising and coastal flooding.
Antarctic ice sheet melting: A new report found that the Antarctic ice sheet is melting at a more accelerated rate than previously thought. "Warm ocean water is seeping beneath the ice sheet at its 'grounding line' — the point at which the ice rises from the seabed and starts to float — causing accelerated melting which could lead to a tipping point," said CNN. Even small changes in ocean temperature can push the sheet to melt further. "You get this kind of runaway feedback … where you can have a very sudden shift in how much melting is happening in these places," Alex Bradley, the lead author of the paper, said to CNN. "Our projections of sea level rise might be significant underestimates."
Biosphere tipping points
Accelerating extinctions: Human influence has greatly increased the rate of extinctions across the world, helping push the planet into its sixth mass extinction event, with almost a million plant and animal species currently at risk. Given "human activities such as land use change, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and introduction of invasive species, we have put our foot on the extinction accelerator," the University of Exeter report said, and the resulting threat to "our critical life-support systems is vastly underestimated." The Amazon rainforest as well as other rainforests are particularly at risk, suffering not only from human influence but also "unprecedented climate-driven disturbances such as increasing dry season length and intensity, more intense and frequent rainfall and temperature extremes," said the report. These extinctions have the potential to cause ecosystem collapses because species are largely interconnected. "We are increasing the risk of co-extinction," Sebesvari said to DW.
Dying coral reefs: Coral reefs are largely in danger due to climate change. Warming oceans are disrupting the delicate aquatic ecosystem causing bleaching, which is when "thermal stress causes corals to expel the symbiotic algae that provides them with food (resulting in a characteristic loss of color), and can result in death if it occurs frequently enough to prevent recovery," said the University of Exeter report. The threat is imminent and "more than 54 percent of the reef areas in the global ocean are experiencing bleaching-level heat stress," Derek Manzello, the coordinator of Coral Reef Watch, said to Al Jazeera. Coral reefs also hold a quarter of all marine life on Earth and their collapse could drastically alter the ecosystem.
Uninsurable future: The combination of the aforementioned tipping points means more and more places on Earth are becoming uninhabitable — and uninsurable. There has been a seven-fold increase in the amount of damage from natural disasters since the 1970s. Homes and businesses in disaster-prone areas are starting to see either extremely high insurance premiums or in some cases, little or no coverage as insurance companies pull out. Once home insurance becomes too expensive or unavailable, "people are left without an economic safety net when disasters strike," the report said. As the world gets closer to tipping past these points of no return, "we also lose some of our tools and options to deal with future disaster risk," Sebesvari said to Forbes.
Groundwater depletion: Much of the world's drinking water comes from underground reservoirs called aquifers. The bad news is that these aquifers are rapidly emptying, with 21 of the 37 largest aquifers losing water faster than they can be replenished. The water in the aquifers "has accumulated over thousands of years, and would equally take thousands of years to fully recharge," the report said, so these crucial reservoirs are "essentially a non-renewable resource." Approximately 2 billion people worldwide rely on groundwater as a primary source of drinking water, but most groundwater is used in agriculture. "We can no longer consider groundwater as a boundless source of easily accessible freshwater," the report said. And its increasing inaccessibility has "worrying implications."
Ocean and atmospheric tipping points
Unbearable heat: This year, the planet has broken numerous heat records. The warmer temperatures have caused intense heat waves and led to "an average of 500,000 excess deaths annually in the last two decades," the U.N. said. The heat also disproportionately affects more vulnerable populations. Along with its toll on humans, heat exacerbates a number of other ecological problems, including melting glaciers, extreme storms and extinctions. "The reality is that we are quickly approaching a tipping point past which people will not survive," the report said. As temperatures rise even higher, the heat's impact will get more extreme and harder to reverse.
Changing ocean currents: The extreme heat has also caused a meteoric rise in ocean temperatures which can lead to a shift in ocean currents. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may be disrupted in the future because the "surface waters in the northern North Atlantic may become less dense," said the University of Exeter report. Cold water is denser than warm water and the current works through different water temperatures rising and sinking. "AMOC may have weakened by around 15" over the past 50 years and may be at its weakest in 1,000 years." The current is crucial to maintain the climates of western and northern Europe.
Space debris: The tipping points also extend to space, where floating detritus threatens both current satellites and our ability to put new ones into orbit. Satellites are crucial to our daily lives, from weather reporting and tracking natural disasters to navigating and communicating. "Each piece of debris becomes an obstacle in the orbital 'highway,' making it increasingly difficult for functional satellites to avoid collisions," the report said. "If we continue on the current trajectory, we risk sacrificing Earth's orbits and the opportunities they offer to society now and in the future."’
Climate Ext: AI is Key to Climate
AI key to environmental sustainability.
Adnan et al., research fellow at Chinese Academy of Sciences, 2024
[Muhammad, “Human Inventions and its Environmental Challenges, especially Artificial Intelligence: New Challenges Require New Thinking” Environmental Challenges vol.16, July 2024, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/382143771_Human_Inventions_and_its_Environmental_Challenges_especially_Artificial_Intelligence_New_Challenges_Require_New_Thinking, Accessed 7.21.24 GDI-HB]
3.10.5. Potential and new opportunities AI offers an array of novel possibilities for promoting and enhancing environmental sustainability. AI-powered smart grids optimize energy distribution and minimize inefficiencies, leading to more sustainable energy usage patterns (Gomes, 2023; Liu and Sun, 2023). AI applications in waste management enhance recycling procedures and minimize the utilization of landfills (Stecyk and Miciuła, 2023; Yadav and Singh, 2023). Moreover, using AI in climate change mitigation measures, such as enhancing carbon capture techniques and optimizing resource allo-cation, showcases AI’s substantial influence on global sustainability endeavors (Wankhede et al., 2024). These groundbreaking applications highlight the profound impact that AI may have in shaping a sustainable future.
AI innovation key to developing greener tech
Dumas, Assistant Professorial Research Fellow at Grantham Research Institute, 2023
[Marion, “Could Artificial Intelligence deliver a green transition?” Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 31 August, 2023, https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/news/could-artificial-intelligence-deliver-a-green-transition/ Accessed 7.21.24 GDI-HB]
An opportunity to grasp
What does this all mean for the transition? It is important to remind ourselves that innovation is central to the net-zero transition. Many commentators claim that the technical solutions exist, and that we are only missing political will. It is true that renewables have become cost-competitive in some markets and that affordable electric vehicles are within reach. However, we are still missing many key elements of a zero-carbon economy: ultra-high-density batteries, affordable hydrogen, smart grid solutions that can smooth intermittent renewables, advanced clean fuels for aviation etc… Overall, the International Energy Agency estimates that 50 per cent of the technologies we need to achieve net-zero by 2050 are still in prototype phase. This is why accelerating the pace of innovation in low-carbon technologies is very important.
This study shows that AI and ICT have been enabling low-carbon innovation. Thus, the idea that AI can enable a faster transition is not wishful thinking – evidence from the recent past supports this vision. As we move forward, there’s a significant opportunity to boost clean innovation if we can deliberately steer AI and ICT towards the greener technologies of the future.
The benefits of AI outweigh the negative harms — provides a litany of tools to reduce climate change
Bereby 24—David Berreby, writes the Robots for the Rest of Us newsletter. His work about AI and robotics has appeared in The New York Times, National Geographic, Slate, and other publications. His other science writing includes Us and Them: The Science of Identity and work in The New Yorker, Nature, and many other publications.(“As Use of A.I. Soars, So Does the Energy and Water It Requires” February 6, 2024. Available at: https://e360.yale.edu/features/artificial-intelligence-climate-energy-emissions, Accessed 07-19-2024, MZ)
Another complication is the fact that A.I., unlike Bitcoin mining or online shopping, can be used to reduce humanity’s impacts. A.I. can improve climate models, find more efficient ways to make digital tech, reduce waste in transport, and otherwise cut carbon and water use. One estimate, for example, found that A.I. -run smart homes could reduce households’ CO₂ consumption by up to 40 percent. And a recent Google project found that an A.I. fast-crunching atmospheric data can guide airline pilots to flight paths that will leave the fewest contrails.
Trade Secrets Scenario
AT: Trade Secrets Good
Trade Secrecy is catastrophic for innovation — strips public benefit and undermines AI
Merritt 23 — [Cole Merritt, Doctor of Law, Associate of Cooley LLP, (“A Compulsory Solution to the Machine Problem: Recognizing Artificial Intelligence as Inventors in Patent Law”). Vanderbilt Journal of Entertainment & Technology Law, 3-6- 23, 25(1), 214–237. Available at https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/jetlaw/vol25/iss1/5 (Accessed 7-18-24)]
Trade secrecy, though an adequate intellectual property regime in some circumstances, poses two significant challenges when applied to Al inventorship. 123 First, the value of trade secrecy is limited to information that can be kept secret. 124 Under the Uniform Trade Secrets Act (UTSA), which has been enacted in some form in the majority of states, 125 information is a trade secret insofar as that information "derives independent economic value ... from not being generally known, and not being readily ascertainable by proper means" and "is the subject of efforts that are reasonable under the circumstances to maintain its secrecy." 126 Second, trade secrecy deprives the public of gaining ownership of the invention through the public domain. 127 Unlike the patent regime, which provides protection and exclusive rights for only a limited time, 128 trade secrecy can exist as long as the conditions required for a trade secret exist. 129 In this scenario, inventions created by Al that can be exploited while maintaining their trade secrecy may never make it into the public domain. 130 Such a result eliminates any potential benefits that may flow from public ownership of the invention in question. 131 Trade secrecy does not maximize benefits to the public in all instances, even though it does provide adequate protection to some owners of Al inventors. 132 Further, relying only on trade secrecy may result in under-incentivizing the use of Al to pursue what would be socially beneficial inventions. 133 In some circumstances, AI's ability to analyze large and complex data sets may lead to innovations that would not be realized in the absence of Al. 134 If Al were not deployed in these situations, the public would be deprived of inventions that it could otherwise benefit from. 135 Additionally, trade secrecy deprives the public of any knowledge of the invention itself.136 Though the public may still benefit from the invention to the extent that it can be exploited while maintaining trade secrecy, 137 the public is deprived of the possibility of continued innovation and inventions developed from the primary invention.13 8 Importantly, under US patent law, this benefit is realized when the patent application is published to the public, 139 which typically occurs no more than eighteen months after a patent application is submitted.14
AT: China Threat Construction
China is a Threat
Democracy is incompatible with China’s domestic autocracy – means revisionism is real
Beckley, associate professor of political science at Tufts University and nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, and Brands, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, 2023
[Michael and Hal, “China’s Threat to Global Democracy” Journal of Democracy, vol. 34, issue 1, pgs. 65-79, January 2023, https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/chinas-threat-to-globa

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