Elections DA - GDI 2024

Elections Disadvantage
1NC
Elections DA---1NC
A. Biden is on track to win but he must stay on path---future shocks like the aff could tip the scales.
Economic Intelligence Unit, ‘24
(EIU, 3-19-24, “Why Biden will win re-election in 2024”, https://www.eiu.com/n/why-biden-will-win-re-election-in-2024/)
Mr Biden and Mr Trump have now won enough delegates to secure their party nominations, aligning with our view that November’s presidential election will be a rematch of the 2020 race. Although Mr Biden trails Mr Trump in most current polls, we maintain our forecast that Mr Biden will win the election, despite the challenges that he faces. This article outlines the reasoning behind our call and the factors that could persuade us to change it.
The current polls have weak predictive power
A starting point for our election forecast is the weak predictive power of the current polls. The election is still eight months away, leaving ample time for any number of factors to shift voter opinion, as usually happens. According to 538, a poll aggregator, national and state-level polls conducted this far in advance missed the final result by 8 points on average during the presidential elections in 1972-2020. Unsurprisingly, the polls become better predictors in the weeks just before Election Day, with the gap narrowing to 4-5 points.
The current polls are also extremely close and volatile. The two candidates’ leads over one another have flipped and oscillated regularly over the past year. Mr Trump is currently ahead of Mr Biden, but by a wafer-thin margin of 1.7 points on average in national polls as at mid-March. This sits well within the current average margin of error (2.6 points), and below Mr Biden’s lead at the same time during the 2020 races (6.4 points). Similar dynamics are at play in many of the battleground states that will decide the election via the Electoral College.
The main conclusion to draw is that the race is still close and fluid, making events that transpire between now and Election Day all the more consequential. A major component of our forecast is the assumption that these will work to Mr Biden’s net advantage.
The economy should benefit Mr Biden, even if it takes time
One factor leaning in Mr Biden’s favour is the economy, which remains a priority for voters. Mr Biden has yet to receive a public-opinion bump from the US economy’s resilience, which continues to buck expectations and long-standing recession fears. However, we expect this to change during the summer months just ahead of the election, when signs of the economy’s strength will become more visible in the areas that voters care about most. By then we expect that inflation (which remains elevated) will have eased closer to 2%, and that interest rates will be falling (which we expect will start in June). Meanwhile, economic growth will stay firm (despite a gradual deceleration) and the labour market will remain strong (we expect positive real wage growth and a still-modest unemployment rate of 4.1% for the full year). The timing of these developments so close to the election should benefit Mr Biden, reinforcing his messaging on economic track record.
We believe that Mr Biden is also well positioned to appeal to voters on other priority issues. Immigration has become a top concern, and the record spike in illegal arrivals at the US-Mexico border will leave Mr Biden vulnerable to blame. However, any attacks by Mr Trump will lack some credibility, given his involvement in discouraging Republican lawmakers from backing proposals for significantly tighter immigration restrictions that Mr Biden endorsed. The fact that Mr Biden can link this to the ongoing dysfunction among Republicans in Congress should further support his standing with voters. Healthcare and abortion also continue to poll as top voter concerns, and we expect Mr Biden to have an edge on both issues, given that they represent key features of his platform and are traditionally areas where Democrats poll more favourably.
Biden has a clearer path to a “big tent” victory
Mr Biden also has a clearer path than Mr Trump to uniting his party while appealing to independent and swing voters. Such a “big tent” approach will be essential given the election’s “winner-take-all” system.
Mr Biden has struggled to generate enthusiasm around his campaign (in part owing to his old age) and has faced blowback from progressive Democrats. However, these problems have not translated into significant warning signs at the ballot box. He has won 84% of votes on average in the Democratic primaries so far and took about 90% of votes in most “Super Tuesday” races. Meanwhile, a progressive-led “uncommitted” protest vote has captured only an 11% share on average and is showing signs of losing steam. We expect that Mr Biden’s constant overtures to progressives (including on fiscal policy and increasingly on the Israel-Hamas war) will help to shore up their support by Election Day. Democrats’ widespread disdain for Mr Trump should have a similar effect across the party. “Culture war” topics (like abortion and LGBT rights) should also rally participation, including among independents, as occurred at the 2022 midterms. Meanwhile, Mr Biden’s more orthodox positioning than Mr Trump on a range of other policy issues (including trade and foreign policy) should attract support from moderates and some Republicans, as happened during the 2020 elections.
Mr Trump, in contrast, faces deep divisions within his party, which we believe he will struggle to overcome. His moderate rival, Nikki Haley, captured a quarter of the Republican primary vote on average, and has continued to win double-digit shares even after ending her campaign. Although some of her voters will inevitably back Mr Trump as the official nominee, many probably will not. Exit polls consistently point to a sizeable share of Haley voters who remain unconvinced by Mr Trump; Ms Haley’s refusal to endorse him (at least for now) will do little to relieve their scepticism, particularly as Mr Trump still faces a number of court challenges. Mr Trump probably could win over these voters (and Ms Haley) if he moderated his platform and tone; however, such a dramatic pivot is unlikely, given his commitment to his far-right base and his highly personalised campaign. This will prevent him from widening his appeal to independents, suburban voters and other critical groups. We expect that greater public exposure to his radical policy proposals, particularly during debates (which he has managed to dodge so far), will similarly work against him.
Biden’s fundraising advantage appears rock solid
Mr Biden also has a distinct fundraising advantage, which we expect will endure. According to latest data reported by the Federal Election Commission, the Biden campaign had US$56m in cash on hand by end-January—well above Mr Trump’s US$30.5m. Mr Biden also outraised Mr Trump that month (US$15.7m compared with US$8.8m), as did Ms Haley (US$11.5m). This mirrors a long-standing fundraising gap between the national party committees.
Although Mr Trump will get a fundraising boost now that he is the presumptive nominee, his prospects for closing the gap with Mr Biden are limited. His previous threats to blacklist Ms Haley’s donors will narrow his potential fundraising pool, with some of her large backers already confirming that they will not support him. Mr Trump’s mounting legal bills will also be a continuous drain on campaign resources.
B. <<<Link>>>
C. Trump reelection causes nuclear war.
Kimball, Executive Director of the Arms Control Association, ‘24
(Daryl, 2024, Arms Control Association, “Nuclear Dangers and the 2024 Election”, https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-01/focus/nuclear-dangers-2024-election)
As the new year begins, the existential risks posed by nuclear weapons continue to grow. A crucial factor in whether one or more of today’s nuclear challenges erupt into full-scale crisis, unravel the nonproliferation system, or worse will be the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
How the winner of the 2024 race will handle the evolving array of nuclear weapons-related challenges is difficult to forecast, but the records and policies of the leading contenders, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, offer clues.
A major responsibility for any commander in chief is to avoid events that can lead to a nuclear war with Russia over its war on Ukraine and with China over its claims to Taiwan. One indicator of Trump’s more confrontational approach came in 2019 when, at a meeting of senior officials from the five nuclear-armed states recognized under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), China proposed a joint statement reiterating that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” Two years later, Biden administration officials successfully pressed the group to reaffirm this Reagan-Gorbachev maxim, first enunciated in 1985.
Since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale attack on Ukraine and threats of nuclear use have raised the specter of nuclear conflict. To his credit, Biden has not issued nuclear counterthreats and has backed Ukraine in its struggle to repel Russia’s invasion. In 2022, Biden also joined leaders of the Group of 20 states in declaring that the use of nuclear weapons and threats of their use are “inadmissible.”
Well before Putin’s nuclear rhetoric turned ominous, Trump engaged in an alarming exchange of taunts with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2017. His threats of unleashing “fire and fury” against Pyongyang fueled tensions on the Korean peninsula and provide another clue how he might behave in a crisis with China, North Korea, or Russia in a second term.
Effective U.S. leadership on arms control will be critical to avoid a destabilizing, three-way arms race after the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty expires in 2026. As the treaty’s first expiration deadline of February 5, 2021, was approaching, Trump refused to agree to simple extension of the pact, focusing instead on a failed effort to cajole China into joining Russian-U.S. arms talks. This left the incoming Biden administration only days to reach a deal with the Kremlin to extend the pact by five years, and it did.
In June 2023, the Biden administration proposed talks with Russia “without preconditions” on a new, post-2026 “nuclear arms control framework.” As long as there is war in Ukraine, the best outcome likely is a simple deal committing both sides to stay below the current limit of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads until a longer-term framework is concluded. Biden also has pursued nuclear risk reduction talks with China, which continues its nuclear buildup begun during the Trump era. In November, senior Chinese and U.S. officials held the first such talks in years.
Meanwhile, Iranian leaders continue increasing their capabilities to produce weapons-grade uranium in response to Trump's 2018 decision to withdraw unilaterally from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and impose tougher U.S. sanctions to pressure Tehran into negotiating a new deal. They now are threatening to pull out of the NPT if the United States or other UN Security Council members snap back international sanctions against Iran.
Biden’s efforts to restore mutual compliance with the 2015 deal have been stymied by Iranian demands on matters outside the nuclear file and tensions over the war in Gaza. Avoiding a more severe crisis over Iran’s nuclear program will require more sophisticated U.S. diplomacy.
Kim has ramped up North Korean nuclear and missile development and stiff-armed overtures for talks with Washington ever since the disastrous 2019 Hanoi summit, when Trump flatly rejected Kim’s offer to dismantle the Yongbyon nuclear complex in return for limited sanctions relief, then walked out of the meeting. Renewed talks on curbing North Korea’s weapons program will require a recalibration of the U.S. approach.
Concerns about a possible nuclear testing revival also are rising. The Trump administration did not help when it declared in 2018 that the United States did not intend to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and in 2020 when senior Trump officials discussed resuming explosive testing to intimidate China and Russia. Biden, on the other hand, has reaffirmed U.S. support for the treaty; and his team proposed technical talks on confidence-building arrangements at the former Chinese, Russian, and U.S. test sites.
Most Americans do not vote based on candidates’ positions on nuclear weapons, but they are aware and deeply concerned about nuclear dangers. A 2023 national opinion survey found that large majorities believe that nuclear weapons are the most likely existential threat to the human race.
In 2024, the candidates’ approaches to these dangers deserve more scrutiny than usual. Presidential leadership may be the most important factor that determines whether the risk of nuclear arms racing, proliferation, and war will rise or fall in the years ahead.
Uniqueness
Uniqueness---Top---2NC
Biden needs anti Trump republicans support to win.
Henderson, politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, ‘24
(Nia-Malika, April 4, 2024, Bloomberg, “Anti-Trumpers Must Go Biden or Bust”, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-04/anti-trump-republicans-who-care-about-the-country-must-support-biden)
In the handful of swing states that will determine who wins the White House in November, there is a sizable number of anti-Trump Republicans who could vote for President Joe Biden. These are the kinds of voters who held Donald Trump to under 80% in the Wisconsin primary this week.
High-profile never-Trump Republicans like Chris Christie, Liz Cheney, Mike Pence and Mitt Romney haven’t said whether they will vote for Biden, but they speak to some of the concerns and the possibilities these voters offer.
What would it take to prod these crucial voters to back Biden over Donald Trump? Will endorsements matter or will taking it to Trump on his character and the threat he presents to democracy be good enough?
Obviously, the biggest forces will be the campaigns and candidates themselves and what unfolds over the next seven months. These voters have shown an affinity for Nikki Haley and a distaste for Trump’s behavior and numerous character flaws. But, like their more famous counterparts, they aren’t completely sold on Biden, for a variety of reasons. At least not yet.
Uniqueness---Experts---2NC
Political experts all agree Biden will win despite low polling.
Klawans, staff writer at The Week, ‘24
(Justin, 6-11-24, "Who will win the 2024 presidential election?”, https://theweek.com/politics/who-will-win-2024-presidential-election)
Who do the polls say will win the election?
Biden and Trump traded slight polling leads throughout the primary season. When it comes to actual figures, though, Trump has carried most of the weight in the majority of polls taken this year — a New York Times poll from May 13 of 1,000 Americans showed the former president leading Biden in five of six key battleground states. Biden led Trump only in Wisconsin with a margin of 47% to 45%. While the accuracy of this poll has been questioned, the Trump lead appears to be in line with a May 14 YouGov/Economist poll of 1,586 voters that had Trump leading 42% to 41% and a May 12 Morning Consult poll of 10,243 voters that had him leading 44% to 43%.
But while Trump has had the edge in the polls through most of the election season, a new element was added to the race at the end of May that could cause an unprecedented shift: the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in relation to his hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. Early polling data appears to show that the GOP nominee now being a convicted felon is moderately changing public opinion. A May 31 Reuters/Ipsos poll of 2,256 Americans found that 1 in 10 Republicans and 25% of independents are less likely to vote for Trump following his conviction. This is in line with a June 2 ABC/Ipsos poll of 781 Americans that found 49% of respondents thought Trump should end his campaign as a result of his conviction. It remains to be seen whether or not this will be enough to make a difference in November. Notably, the same Reuters poll found that the conviction made no difference to 56% of Republicans, while 35% of GOP voters said they were more likely to vote for Trump as a result of the conviction. However, the "potential loss of a tenth of his party's voters is more significant for Trump than the stronger backing of more than a third of Republicans," said Reuters, given that many of the 35% of Republicans would likely vote for him anyway.
But even prior to Trump's conviction, an April 16 NBC News/Hart Research poll also confirmed what many in the U.S. likely suspected: Voters are becoming increasingly apathetic about the 2024 election, on both sides of the aisle. The poll found that voters who said they had a "high interest" in the race reached a 20-year low, and that the majority had negative views about both Trump and Biden.
Other polls, still, have shown the two men evenly matched. The same Reuters poll found that Trump's conviction notwithstanding, Biden and Trump were tied at 36%, which is in line with a May 13 YouGov/Yahoo News poll of 1,198 voters that found them tied at 45%.
Post-conviction, there is starting to be a more even split in which candidate is carrying which poll. Out of the 13 most recent head-to-head matchups in FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate, Trump is leading Biden in six, Biden is leading Trump in four and the men are tied in three. It is likely that these figures will continue to fluctuate as the election inches nearer, and the two candidates are within two points of each other in all 13 polls.
Who do the pundits say will win the election?
While the polls may tell one story, political analysts, pundits and experts can tell another. Many who study politics seem to think that despite Trump leading in most polls throughout the majority of the campaign season, it will ultimately be Biden who will secure a second term in office.
Biden is "seen as a moderate figure who has not transformed a politically polarized country," Fox News' Juan Williams said for The Hill, and this "has contributed to his low approval numbers in 2023." However, Biden's low poll numbers "will be out the door in a one-on-one, 2024 rematch with Trump," Williams said.
"The Democrats have the power to make this year's race into a referendum on Trump rather than Biden," Williams said. "With the stock market up, unemployment down, wages rising, inflation slowing and the U.S. standing tall against Russia and China, Biden has a record to persuade swing voters."
Biden could also win reelection because "the strength of the president's record is only matched by the strength of his party," Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg said for MSNBC. Democrats have "won more votes in seven of the past eight presidential elections, something no party has done in modern American history," Rosenberg said, and in both of the prior two years "prevented the historical down ballot struggle of the party in power and had two remarkably successful elections." He added that polling numbers "[continue] to overly discount Trump's historic baggage and MAGA's repeated electoral failures." Also notable are Trump's aforementioned legal troubles; his sentencing in the hush money case is slated for July 11, just four days before he will be nominated at the Republican National Convention. He is facing possible jail time, meaning that Trump could potentially spend a portion of the remaining campaign behind bars.
The bad news for Trump comes as Biden is continuing to rake in cash, and recently raised a reported $26 million during a fundraiser with former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton in March. The president "appears to have gained an edge in part because the Democratic Party app

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