China Relations DA - Michigan 2024 HHIRS

Disadvantage---China Relations
Notes
The DA is pretty simple---Chinese relations high and good---but plan disrupts that and leads to hence impact
The impacts on the first shell are the relations scenario, but you also can read links on decoupling and trade war as well to access those impact
The second shell is IP Theft good---it says that IP theft is vital to Chinese economy and without it creates Chinese economic collapse which leads to hence impact
The first shell is more straightforward with more ev to substantiate it, but you can read the second shell as a case turn as well
Regards,
Genevieve’s strongest soldiers
*Thanks to Harris (who wrote the above message), Ethan, June, Sid, Joshua, Neil, Beatrix, and Andreas who all at various points contributed something to the DA.
1NC Shell
1NC---Relations
U.S. and Chinese diplomatic relations increasing now---China realizes stabilizing relations is key to Xi agenda Brunnstrom and Martina 6/12 – David Brunnstrom reporter at Reuters when it comes Internation law, long running writer. Michael Martina foreign policy correspondent at Reuters. Senior US diplomat believes China determined to l with stabilize relations. https://www.reuters.com/world/senior-us-diplomat-believes-china-determined-stabilize-relations-2024-06-12//HarrisC
WASHINGTON, June 12 (Reuters) - The United States believes China's primary focus currently is its economy and that it is determined to work to stabilize bilateral relations with the United States, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said on Wednesday.
Campbell told Washington's Stimson Center think tank China needed to reassure investors and others that it has a plan for its economy and would not be looking to create frictions that could escalate in unpredictable and dangerous ways.
"It's very hard for China to take certain steps without harming its own economy," Campbell said. "And I think we now understand that economic performance is central right now to what is important to President Xi."
Campbell was addressing questions about stepped up pressure China has put on U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, which has included run-ins with the Philippines over rival maritime claims in the South China Sea and increased military activity around Taiwan.
The U.S. and China have taken steps to reengage at high levels diplomatically after relations sank to their lowest point in decades, but serious frictions remain, including China's support for Russia in its war in Ukraine, and worries that Beijing might act against Taiwan as Moscow did against Kiev.
"The hope will be that we'll be able to settle on certain things that are necessary for the sustainment of the global economy, that are unexceptional with respect to national security," Campbell said of the efforts in dialogue with China.
"Ultimately, that requires both strengthening, extending and also careful coexistence, and that's really the nature of the diplomatic challenge that we have in front of us. It is one of the most difficult challenges in the history of American foreign policy."
The protection of IP will be seen as getting a ‘strategic advantage’---undermines relations with China Harjani and Sworn 22 – Manoj Harjani is a Research Fellow with the Future Issues & Technology research cluster at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Hannah Elyse Sworn is a Senior Analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. US–China economic competition rests on intellectual property. https://eastasiaforum.org/2022/06/29/us-china-economic-competition-rests-on-intellectual-property//HarrisC
Intellectual property (IP) has long been a sore point in relations between Washington and Beijing. US officials have repeatedly targeted China for widespread counterfeiting since its economic ‘opening up’ in the late 1970s. But after enduring a punishing series of legal reforms to join the World Trade Organization in 2001, the Chinese government is still under fire for weak enforcement, forced technology transfers and state-sponsored IP theft. Now China’s growing ability to produce IP indigenously is driving the evolution of US–China economic relations.
In 2021, China was the world’s top patent filer for the third year in a row. Chinese firms have filed approximately 75 per cent of global artificial intelligence patents in the past decade and 40 per cent of all 6G patents, while the United States accounted for only 35 per cent of the latter. The country’s ability to produce IP across a number of critical and emerging technologies has been framed as evidence that China is surpassing the United States in knowledge production.
While the significant growth in China’s patent filings point to genuine improvement in its ability to innovate, focussing on the number of filings is misleading. China’s production of more IP does not automatically translate into a strategic advantage in economic competition with the United States. Rather, it is high-quality IP that has assumed a critical role amidst globalisation and the emergence of global value chains, providing exclusive rights to license processes, brands and technologies essential for manufacturing.
Value chains are hierarchical. At the apex, owners of high-quality IP dictate the terms of — and reap a greater proportion of profits from — economic activity taking place lower down in the value chain where the IP is paid for and used in assembly. ‘Moving up’ the value chain enables firms to capture a higher share of value added, giving countries a strategic advantage in dictating the terms of international trade.
IP has become integral to economic power. The United States’ near-monopoly over high-quality IP ownership has allowed its firms to capture a disproportionate share of value added globally. US efforts to produce, regulate and protect IP can be framed as seeking to protect its power to shape the global economy.
China’s leadership has doggedly pursued its own innovation pathway to maintain economic growth and avoid the middle-income trap by moving up the value chain. But regardless of Beijing’s intentions, this threatens US economic power conferred to it through greater IP ownership.
Although China’s leadership is well aware of the importance of IP quality over quantity, success in capturing value added has evaded China’s grasp. China’s IP receipts of US$8.6 billion in 2020 do not come close to the United States’ enormous US$113.8 billion. This is likely due to China’s IP tending more toward adaptive innovation — over half its domestic filings are utility patents. These have lower eligibility requirements, protection periods and retention rates, indicating lower IP quality.
US-China cooperation solves hotspot escalation and warming, but relations are key.
Flannery 22 – Russel Flannery says, “I'm a senior editor and the Shanghai bureau chief of Forbes magazine. Now in my 22nd year at Forbes, I compile the Forbes China Rich List. I was previously a correspondent for Bloomberg News in Taipei and Shanghai and for the Asian Wall Street Journal in Taipei. I'm a Massachusetts native, fluent Mandarin speaker, and hold degrees from the University of Vermont and the University of Wisconsin at Madison.” (“Two Areas Where the U.S. And China Can Still Work Together,” Forbes, 10/08/2022, https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2022/10/08/two-areas-where-the-us-and-china-can-still-work-together/?sh=373ac4ba6783)
U.S.-China relations are at their worst in decades, experts routinely declare. A long list of disagreements includes Taiwan, Russia and the semiconductor trade. Is there still any hope for collaboration between the two powerful countries?
A forum organized by the Asia Society's new Center for China Analysis on “China’s Future: What It Means for Asia and the World” in New York on Monday highlighted at least two areas that are still of promise: the fight against cancer and the push to a carbon neutral future.
Cancer kills nearly 10 million people globally each year, with China and the U.S. suffering the most loss of life. “This is a common enemy of humanity,” said Dr. Bob Li, Physician Ambassador to China and Asia-Pacific from the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, or MSK, in New York.
His suggestion to quicken progress in the fight against it: More collaboration between the U.S. and China in clinical trials that would help bring new treatments to patients faster. “Clinical trials have evolved over the last few decades, particularly in the last decade where international clinical trials have become a reality. And this is where China has actually really demonstrated its contribution,” said Li, who is also a Senior Fellow on Global Public Health at the Center for China Analysis.
Trials involving China with a lung cancer EGFR inhibitor pill, for instance, accelerated their use in treatments in the U.S. and helped to save lives, said Li, who highlighted a “cure4cancer” program being launched by the Asia Society this year that seeks to widely promote that goal.
Widening participation in trials not just with China but globally is “critical” to the cancer fight, noted Dr. Selwyn Vickers, a pancreatic cancer surgeon and researcher who took up a new post as president and CEO at MSK in September. “It'd be shortsighted not to understand that international engagement is going to be critical in order for us to accomplish the goal of curing cancer,” Vickers said. “The fundamental part of the mission in MSK is to be able to lead the world in this space. And probably the most practical way to do it is in clinical trials.” Diversity among participants is important for trials to be effective because of “the broad diversity that represents the scope of cancer disease in the world,” Vickers said. “And then there obviously needs to be efficacy.”
Kate Logan, a fellow at the Center for China Analysis, highlighted the potential benefits of U.S.-China collaboration toward environmental goals. President Xi Jinping said in 2020 that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
China has the resources and commitment to achieve its goals, she said. “China has the most massive renewable buildout in the entire world, and is investing incredibly in all these different technologies that we need to decarbonize,” said Logan, a graduate of the Yale School of the Environment and Middlebury College. “It's not really an issue of money or technology. It really is an issue of motivation and where the policy plays out in practice.”
Private actors have room to advance their efforts in China through organizations such as the Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, a Beijing non-profit founded by Chinese environmentalist Ma Jun where Logan directed international outreach and green supply chain initiatives. Logan is also co-founder and former producer of Environment China, a podcast on solutions to China's environmental challenges.
To be sure, collaboration between the U.S. and China can only be substantial with mutual decisions by governments to give it space to develop, said Asia Society CEO and founding chair of the Center for China Analysis Kevin Rudd. The former Australian prime minister and Mandarin-speaking China expert explored the topic in his 2021 book, “The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the U.S. and Xi Jinping’s China.”
The two countries as a first precondition to that end need to identify red lines around critical issues that could escalate into crisis, with guard rails around them to reduce the risk of war by accident, Rudd explained. That would cover geopolitical hotspots such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Korean peninsula as well as cyberspace, each of which brings “risks on a daily basis,” Rudd said.
“Second, if you do that, then you can have what I describe as non-lethal strategic competition” that would cover foreign policy, economics, technology and ideology areas, Rudd said.
Other event speakers and panelists at the Asia Society event included former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, as well as Wu Guoguang, senior research scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions; Chris Johnson, president of political risk consultancy China Strategies Group; Evan Medeiros, former top Asia advisor to President Barack Obama and current Asia studies scholar at Georgetown University; and Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. Guest attendees included business leaders Joe Tsai and Ray Dalio.
Leaders in both countries can then provide “political and diplomatic capital in the relationship to encourage collaboration between China and the United States in areas of common strategic interest, by which I mean, global public health, by which I mean global action (on) climate change (and) by which I mean continued global financial stability,” Rudd said.
“Rational grounds for hope exist because these two countries, these two cultures, these two civilizations have things in common,” Rudd said. The two sides need to apply a “magnifying glass to what they have in the common interest and the common interests they wish to pursue. And, unfashionable as I sound, some of the common values that they share.”
nonnuclear attack submarines.76
1NC---IP Theft
Intellectual property theft is key to the Chinese innovation machine.
Huang 19 [Yukon; senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “China’s Record on Intellectual Property Rights Is Getting Better and Better”, The Economist, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/16/china-intellectual-property-theft-progress] Charalambous
Speculation about the on-and-off U.S.-Chinese trade talks centers on whether the two sides will eventually settle for a truce or push for a “complete deal,” which U.S. President Donald Trump remains adamant he will obtain. Any grand bargain will require progress on a key structural issue: intellectual property (IP) rights. According to some reports, Chinese IP theft has cost the United States $225 billion to $600 billion a year. No wonder, then, that getting China to better protect IP is a point of rare consensus among both the White House and the Democratic leadership.
But history tells us to be cautious; Washington’s demands are unrealistic. Countries do not enact strong IP rights systems until their ability to innovate at home displaces reliance on outside knowledge. The United States’ own centurylong drift toward strong protections is a case in point.
Economists see the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge as key to sustainable economic growth. That is true for both developing and developed economies, although they differ greatly in their abilities to generate innovation. It is only natural, then, that developing countries would primarily seek to upgrade their stocks of knowledge and technology through acquisition rather than invention. China and others see such efforts as vital to evading the middle-income trap.
Reduced innovation deals final blow to the Chinese economy.
Garcia-Herrero 23 [Alicia; Senior fellow at Bruegel, PhD in Economics from George Washington University and Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, “CHINA’S QUEST FOR INNOVATION: PROGRESS AND BOTTLENECKS”, issue 8, p.g.2] Charalambous
1 Introduction
The Chinese economy is at a crossroads. The investment-driven growth model which the government relied upon for the last four decades is running out of steam, fiscal deficits are widening and public debt is rising. Furthermore, population aging is becoming more visible and the pandemic had some scarring effects which have taken a toll on both consumer and business confidence. The very rapid rise in wages since the global financial crisis is pushing China to move up the ladder in its production capabilities so it can be productive enough to continue to raise wages and avoid the middle-income trap. Pressure on the economy is further intensified by the recent increase in geopolitical tensions and fears of decoupling between the US and China.
Against such a challenging backdrop, the central leadership is doubling down on its push towards a new type of development philosophy, one in which consumer demand and indigenous innovation serve as the two pillars for further economic progress. China’s leadership is aware that only an innovation-centred economy can mitigate its structural deceleration, or, using the terms of our previous article on China’s long-term growth prospects defy gravity (García-Herrero, 2023).
The vision of the central government was best summarised in an article by Chen Jin et al (2018) from Tsinghua University, in which the authors proposed a new innovation paradigm for China, dubbed as “Holistic innovation”. Holistic innovation combines previous approaches to innovation, often embedded in a specific cultural context and implemented by isolated actors within the entirety of the ecosystem. In this new paradigm, under the umbrella of a strategic vision set by the Chinese state, actors engaging in innovation (research institutions, firms, government agencies) should seek synergies between internal and external resources for innovation, align every department of their organisation with the overall strategic goal of innovation and collaborate with all relevant institutions in the ecosystem.
Chinese economic collapse causes a global recession and nuclear instability---extinction.
Weichert 23 [Brandon; M.A. in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from the Institute of World Politics in Washington DC, former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst at The Washington Times, “What Happens If China Collapses?”, Indian Strategic Studies, https://www.strategicstudyindia.com/2023/10/what-happens-if-china-collapses.html] Charalambous
China’s property market, which accounts for about 30 percent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP), has been in freefall since the collapse of Evergrande Bank in the Fall of 2021. The fallout from that, as well as the disastrous “Zero COVID” policies of President Xi Jinping, has prompted the largest correction of China’s economy in recent history.
There are now serious discussions among China experts that China is collapsing.
Whether the total collapse of China—a truly nightmare scenario—or something less destabilizing occurs, it’s important to understand how a collapsing China could negatively impact the world.
The first thing to remember is that China is a 4,000-year-old country. It has endured countless regime changes before. China has been invaded, colonized, and reconstituted over that period of time. In fact, China was enmeshed in a lawless warlord era for the first few decades of the twentieth century, following the collapse of the Qing Dynasty. Ultimately, Mao Zedong’s Communist Party took power and effectively created a new dynasty.
When Mao died and was succeeded by Deng Xiaoping, the ideological underpinnings of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were weakened. Deng prioritized the embrace of the capitalist West and the remaking of the Chinese economy from a purely Marxist structure to a state capitalist model.
This model has been the engine of China’s historic growth over the last 40 years.
China’s State Capitalist Model: Part Strength, Part Weakness
Yet, that highly centralized model is susceptible to collapse. Whereas the American economy – until very recently – was highly decentralized, and risk was spread out, China’s economy, while being more decentralized than it was under Mao, is still far more centralized today than Western economies.
That means when there are economic headwinds afflicting the nation, as there always are in any country, political stability is threatened.
In the case of China, a country with a large, and growing, nuclear weapons capability – as well as other forms

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