DA Updates - Michigan 2024 GLW

DA Updates – GLW
Elections DA
NEG
Harris Wins
Harris has room to grow—united front is key
Laura Santhanam 7/23, staff writer for PBS, “Harris and Trump are tied, poll finds. Here’s why strategists say that’s good for Democrats”, PBS, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/where-harris-and-trump-stand-after-biden-leaves-the-race, July 23, 2024
Trump vs. Harris
More so than for Harris, people have made their minds up about Trump. Eight percent of Americans said they were not sure how they felt about him, compared to Harris’ 15 percent. Another 49 percent said they hold an unfavorable view of Trump, while 43 percent find him favorable.
For Republicans to control the narrative, Ayres said they have “got to drive home the case that the economy was better when Donald Trump was president than when the Democrats were in office,” adding that is “their strongest argument, particularly for non-white respondents.”
Harris’ element of the unknown could prove to be an asset on the campaign trail. In the days ahead, she stands to gain from “exciting waves of news,” Parkhomenko said, including the Democratic National Convention and the selection of her own vice president.
To keep up the momentum for Harris, Parkhomenko said Democrats need to stay focused and build on the unity forged over the last few days. He also said they must find a balance between debunking disinformation from the Trump campaign, “but at the same time, highlighting what we’re going to do in the next four years. It’s not just what we’ve done” during the Biden administration.
“Harris has far more room to grow, and Trump has hit his ceiling,” Democratic strategist Tory Gavito said. “Trump is stagnant at 46 percent, and he should be soaring right now.”
The one sure thing to come out of the last two weeks that have felt like a year in political time: Americans are more interested and engaged in the upcoming presidential election than they’ve been in months.
Kamala’s ahead now
James Bickerton 7/24 [James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world politics. He has covered the intersection between politics and emerging technology, such as artificial intelligence. James joined Newsweek in July 2022 from LBC, and previously worked for the Daily Express. He is a graduate of Oxford University. “Kamala Harris' Chances of Winning Election Are Increasing” ] GF https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-chances-winning-election-are-increasing-1929485
The odds of Vice President Kamala Harris being elected as president in November improved noticeably over the past 24 hours according to a number of leading bookmakers, following the publication of a poll putting her two points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in a straight matchup.
On Tuesday morning, betting companies Bet365 and William Hill were offering odds of 7/4 (36.4 percent) on Harris being elected to the White House this year, but this has since been cut to 6/4 (40 percent) for the former and 11/8 (42.1 percent) for the latter as of 5 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Over the same period, the odds of Harris winning in November went from 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 11/8 (42.1 percent) according to Sky Bet, another leading bookmaker.
Harris emerged as the clear favorite for the Democratic presidential nomination after President Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 contest on July 21 and endorsed his vice president. The move came after intense focus on the age and cognitive ability of the 81-year-old president following his debate with Trump on June 27, where at several points Biden appeared to lose his train of thought mid-sentence.
Tuesday evening saw the publication of a major Ipsos/Reuters poll suggesting Harris is now ahead of Trump in the presidential contest, either in a head-to-head or with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included. In a straight matchup, the survey of 1,018 registered voters put Harris on 44 percent against 42 percent for Trump. When Kennedy was included, Harris's lead extended to four points, with the Democrat on 42 percent against 38 percent for Trump and eight percent for the independent. The survey was conducted on July 22 and 23.
In his endorsement of Harris on Sunday, Biden said: "My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it's been the best decision I've made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it's time to come together and beat Trump. Let's do this."
Harris Leads NOW
Lange 7/23 (Jason L. A correspondent, writing enterprise and breaking news stories about the United States. Currently focus on politics and data journalism. ‘Exclusive: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42% in US presidential race, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds’ 2024 Reutershttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-44-42-us-presidential-race-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2024-07-23/ ) BC
July 23 (Reuters) - Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week's poll before his Sunday exit from the race.
The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, followed both the Republican National Convention where Trump on Thursday formally accepted the nomination and Biden's announcement on Sunday he was leaving the race and endorsing Harris.
Harris, whose campaign says she has secured the Democratic nomination, led Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a difference within the 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in a July 15-16 poll, and Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll, both within the same margin of error.
While nationwide surveys give important signals of American support for political candidates, a handful of competitive states typically tilt the balance in the U.S. Electoral College, which ultimately decides who wins a presidential election.
A pollster with Trump's campaign played down any polling showing an increase in Harris' support, arguing that she was likely to see a temporary rise in popularity because of widespread media coverage of her new candidacy.
"That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while," pollster Tony Fabrizio said in a memo circulated to reporters by Trump's campaign.
Candidates often expect a bump after formally accepting their party's nomination at stage-managed, televised conventions such as the one that Trump had last week. But the poll showed no sign of that.
Bump or not, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll underscored the rationale for Biden dropping out of the race and for Harris replacing him on the ticket.
HARRIS SEEN AS SHARPER THAN BIDEN, TRUMP
Some 56% of registered voters agreed with a statement that Harris, 59, was "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 49% who said the same of Trump, 78.
Only 22% of voters assessed Biden that way.
Biden, 81, ended his reelection effort after a debate with Trump in which he often stammered and failed to aggressively challenge attacks by Trump that included falsehoods.
Some 80% of Democratic voters said they viewed Biden favorably, compared to 91% who said the same of Harris. Three quarters of Democratic voters said they agreed with a statement that the party and voters should get behind Harris now, with only a quarter saying multiple candidates should compete for the party's nomination.
When voters in the survey were shown a hypothetical ballot that included independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, an advantage outside the margin of error. Kennedy, favored by 8% of voters in the poll, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the Nov. 5 election.
Harris campaigned in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin on Tuesday. She won support from major party figures and attention has since turned to who she will pick as her running mate.
Many respondents in the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they knew nothing about the Democrats seen as potential picks to join Harris' ticket.
About one in four registered voters said they had never heard of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, a former Democratic presidential candidate who had the highest favorability rating - 37% - of the potential Harris running mates in the poll.
One in three had not heard of California Governor Gavin Newsom, with about the same share saying they looked on him favorably. Half of registered voters in the poll had never heard of Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and two thirds knew nothing of Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The poll, which was conducted online, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters.
Harris Wins—Polls
Kamala is gaining in polls
Dorn 24 [Sara; July 25; Forbes news reporter; Graduate from the University of Dayton; Previously wrote for the New York Post; “Trump Vs. harriss 2024 Polls: Trump Loses 5 Points In Latest Major Survey --- But Still Leads Harris,” https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/25/trump-vs-harris-2024-polls-harris-leads-trump-in-latest-survey/]
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a neck-and-neck contest nearly 100 days before the election, with the latest poll showing Harris gaining five points on Trump compared to President Joe Biden’s standing in the wake of his consequential June 27 debate against Trump. KEY FACTS A New York Times/Siena poll of 1,142 voters conducted July 22-24 shows Trump up by one point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters and up two points, 48% to 46%, among registered voters—the latest survey showing Harris making a dent in Trump’s lead over Biden, who trailed Trump by six points in the groups’ early July survey. Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters in a six-way matchup with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%) on the ballot, according to the Times/Siena survey. Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democrat saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. Two polls taken since Biden dropped out show Harris leading: Morning Consult’s weekly presidential race poll, conducted July 22-24 among 11,297 registered voters, shows her with 46% support, compared to Trump’s 45%, while she is up 44% to 42% over Trump in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday. Four other polls show Trump winning: he leads Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in another Morning Consult poll; by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll; and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sunday-Tuesday that also found Kennedy with 5% support. Polls consistently show Harris outperforms Biden—Ipsos and Reuters’ previous poll taken July 15-16 found Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll found Trump led by one point—though it’s unclear how polls taken when Harris was still only a hypothetical candidate will differ from those taken after she became the likely nominee. The CNN/SSRS survey and Morning Consult polls also found Harris performs better than Biden against Trump—Biden trailed Trump by six points in Morning Consult surveys taken before he exited the race and by six points in CNN/SSRS surveys taken in April and June. In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden.
Harris Wins—Outperforming Biden
Harris is outperforming Biden in key battlegrounds, her vice president shortlist can help convince swing states
Dorn 24 [Sara; July 25; Forbes news reporter; Graduate from the University of Dayton; Previously wrote for the New York Post; “Trump Vs. harriss 2024 Polls: Trump Loses 5 Points In Latest Major Survey --- But Still Leads Harris,” https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2024/07/25/trump-harris-swing-state-polls-harris-trails-trump-in-most-key-battlegrounds-but-outperforms-biden/]
Former President Donald Trump has a narrow edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five crucial swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, according to new polls by Emerson College—results similar to national polling that shows Trump beating Harris, but by fewer points than he would Biden. KEY FACTS Michigan: Trump leads Harris by one point here (46% to 45%), with 9% of voters undecided, according to an Emerson College survey of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4) conducted July 22-23—a slight decline from Trump’s three-point lead against Biden in a July 15-16 Emerson poll. Wisconsin: Harris and Trump are tied here at 47%, with 5% undecided, according to Emerson’s poll of 845 registered voters (margin of error 3.3); Trump led Biden here by five points. Georgia: Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in an Emerson poll of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4), after leading Biden by six points in the group’s previous poll. Arizona: Harris is down by five points (49% to 44%) among the 800 registered voters surveyed (margin of error 3.4), with 7% of voters undecided, while Trump led Biden here by seven points earlier this month. Pennsylvania: Trump leads by two (48% to 46%) in the latest survey of 850 voters (margin of error 3.3), compared to his five-point lead over Biden. WHAT TO WATCH FOR Several names on Harris’ reported shortlist for vice president could help her shore up votes in the crucial swing states. Voters are partial to possible contenders who currently represent their states, the Emerson poll found. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters prefer their senator, Mark Kelly, 57% of Democrats in Pennsylvania prefer Gov. Josh Shapiro, and 36% of Michigan Democrats surveyed prefer Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has said she wouldn’t accept an offer for the No. 2 spot. None of the possible picks Emerson asked about received more than about 20% support among Democrats in Wisconsin and Georgia, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in addition to Kelly, Shapiro and Whitmer.
Harris Wins—Democrat Base
Harris has garnered a lot of support quickly
Shane Goldmacher et. al 7/25 [Shane Goldmacher, Ruth Igielnik, and Camille Baker are all writers at the New York Times, “Harris Narrows Gap Against Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds”]//GF https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/25/us/politics/poll-kamala-harris-donald-trump.html
Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden.
Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process.
Her swift reassembling of the Democratic coalition appeared to help narrow Mr. Trump’s significant advantage over Mr. Biden of only a few weeks ago. Ms. Harris was receiving 93 percent support from Democrats, the same share that Mr. Trump was getting from Republicans.
Overall, Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 47 percent among likely voters in a head-to-head match. That is a marked improvement for Democrats when compared to the Times/Siena poll in early July that showed Mr. Biden behind by six percentage points, in the aftermath of the poor debate performance that eventually drove him from the race.
Mr. Trump leads Ms. Harris 48 percent to 46 percent among registered voters. He had led among registered voters by nine percentage points over Mr. Biden in the post-debate poll.
The survey provides a snapshot of the presidential race in the middle of one of the most volatile and unpredictable periods in modern American history. Democrats suddenly have a new nominee. And, less than two weeks after Mr. Trump survived an assassination attempt, his favorability rating rose to the highest level it has ever been in a national New York Times survey.
In some ways, the poll showed a reset to where the race was before Mr. Biden imploded on a debate stage in Atlanta: months of a narrow but steady Trump edge in the national polling averages. But in other ways, the new poll provided intriguing hints at how a Harris candidacy could remake the political coalitions and map that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election.
Ms. Harris was faring better among groups that Mr. Biden had been the weakest in, especially younger voters and nonwhite voters. At the same time, some Democrats fear she might not retain the same strengths that Mr. Biden has had among older voters, for whom the poll does show some erosion of Democratic support.
The poll showed Ms. Harris garnering about 60 percent support from voters under 30 and Hispanic voters, groups Mr. Biden had consistently struggled with. Among voters under 45, Ms. Harris was ahead by 10 percentage points, less than three weeks after Mr. Trump had held a narrow edge with that group over Mr. Biden.
ImageKamala Harris stands on a stage as a crowd of supporters wave signs reading “Kamala Harris for President.”
In the new Times/Siena poll, Vice President Kamala Harris was faring better among the groups that President Biden had been the weakest in, especially younger voters and nonwhite voters. Credit...Erin Schaff/The New York Times
Because the survey was of voters nationwide, the impact of Ms. Harris’s candidacy in particular battleground states was not immediately clear. But a Democratic candidate with greater appeal to younger and more diverse voters could put renewed focus on the Sun Belt states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, which had been threatening to slip off the swing-state map for Mr. Biden.
Ms. Harris has emerged as the Democratic Party’s expected nominee after a tumultuous few weeks. Mr. Biden stepped aside on Sunday, following a month of drawn-out questions about his mental faculties following a poor debate performance at the end of June. In the interim, Mr. Trump escaped an assassination attempt, named Senator JD Vance of Ohio as his running mate and formally accepted his party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention.
Ms. Harris is on a glide path toward next month’s Democratic convention as she seeks to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to serve as an American president.
“Her being president or even being in the running is very important just for history,” said Summer Nesbitt, a 27-year-old school tutor near Detroit who supports the vice president. But Ms. Nesbitt, who is Black, added that she found some of Ms. Harris’s explicit appeals to Black voters a turnoff. “I don’t think that you have to try to pretend to be more down or be more Black just so you can get the Black vote. Just be yourself.”
Voters are more tuned into the race. Just before the June debate, only 48 percent of voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the presidential campaign. That figure now stands at 64 percent, though the interest of independents continues to lag behind th

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