Elections DA Harris Supplement - Michigan 2024 FWZ

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Harris Wins
UQ---Swing States
Harris wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan depending on her VP pick.
Rebekah Castor 7/22 [Fox 29, “Kamala Harris could beat Trump with this VP pick, swing state poll says”, https://www.fox29.com/news/kamala-harris-beat-trump-vp-poll]//IG
PENNSYLVANIA - As Kamala Harris emerges as the likely candidate for the Democratic Party's nominee, speculation grows over which running mate could help her win the 2024 Election.
President Joe Biden announced his exit in a letter posted to social media on Sunday, followed by his endorsement of Harris.
"Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this."
If nominated, Harris will take on former President Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, in the presidential race, but who will she choose as her running mate?
In Pennsylvania, 47 percent of voters said they would vote for Harris if she ran alongside Shapiro. Meanwhile, Trump and Vance received 46 percent of the votes.
However, only 42 percent backed a Harris-Shapiro ticket in Michigan, compared to 47 percent for Trump-Vance.
Shapiro has yet to comment on any speculation, praising President Biden on social media following his announcement.
"President Biden is a patriot who has served our country honorably in the Senate, as Vice President, and as one of the most consequential presidents in modern history. President Biden has gotten an incredible amount done to move our country forward, defend our democracy, and protect real freedom. I am proud to work by his side and am grateful for his leadership and his unwavering commitment to delivering for Pennsylvania — the Commonwealth that raised him."
The Pennsylvania governor did endorse the vice president, stating he would "do everything I can to help elect Kamala Harris as the 47th President of the United States."
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was also tested as a potential running mate for Harris with less favorable results.
In Pennsylvania, 42 percent said they would vote for Harris-Whitmer, while 47 percent chose Trump-Vance.
Results were tied in Michigan with both tickets receiving 46 percent.
Optimism that Harris will win swing states with young voters and people of color.
Erin Doherty 7/24 [politics reporter covering breaking news and the 2024 election,Axios, “Harris' big test: reclaiming swing states for Dems”, https://www.axios.com/2024/07/24/kamala-harris-swing-states-test-2024-trump]//IG
For all of the enthusiasm and cash Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is generating for Democrats, her true tests are about to begin. Why it matters: To beat Donald Trump, Harris will have to overcome President Biden's polling deficits — and questions about how well she'll fare with working-class voters in the crucial "Blue Wall" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. The Californian likely will need to win all three without "Scranton Joe" — the monicker Biden used to remind Pennsylvania voters of his working-class roots when he won the presidency in 2020. Early national polls suggest Harris' entry has given Democrats a bump in a tight race, but the presidential election is a state-by-state contest. Harris appears to be energizing many young and minority voters. A big question is whether she also can maintain Biden's recent success among older voters — and stem Democrats' losses among groups such as Latino men and whites who didn't go to college. In a strategy memo released early Wednesday, Harris' campaign argues she can. She aims to do so partly by focusing on women's reproductive rights and contrasting Trump's legal problems with her history as a prosecutor. Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 was aided by his gains among whites who didn't attend college, a group that helped Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center. Driving the news: Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive, said he doesn't expect Harris to match Biden's numbers in rural parts of the state. But, he said, Harris "is going to boost turnout and support from African American voters, diverse voters and younger voters." "It could be a net positive for the ticket," Ceisler said. Another thing that might help in must-win Pennsylvania: Harris is considering Josh Shapiro, the state's popular Democratic governor, as her running mate. Putting him on the ticket could alter the calculus there. What they're saying: In its memo, Harris' campaign argues that she's positioned to expand Biden's winning coalition from 2020. "Her net favorability is 19 points higher than Trump's among white, college-educated voters, and 18 points higher than Trump's among voters over 65," the Harris campaign writes. It also claims that the roughly 7% of voters who remain undecided are "disproportionately Black, Latino and under 30" — voting populations more likely to favor Harris. By the numbers: Few polls have been released since Biden left the race Sunday and Harris jumped in. Reuters released a national poll Tuesday showing Harris with a 2-point lead over Trump, (44%-42%). The same poll the previous week had Trump with a 2-point lead, suggesting that the Democrats' candidate switch led Trump to lose ground instead of picking up a post-convention bump. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates that Harris' entry reset the race, which the poll says is statistically tied. Swing-state polls are done less frequently, and don't yet reflect the historic twists and turns of the past two weeks. The latest batch showed Trump ahead in most of the six states likely to decide the election — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In a New York Times/Siena College poll — taken before Biden dropped out and the assassination attempt against Trump — Harris fared better than Biden, and was essentially tied with Trump in Pennsylvania. Harris also polled stronger than Biden with Black voters and younger voters. In Michigan, Real Clear Politics found that Trump led by about 2 points from an average of Trump-Harris polls. State of play: Trump's team is zeroing in on the three "Blue Wall" states, with a particular eye on Pennsylvania. His running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, plans to campaign frequently in Pennsylvania in the next few months, hoping to use his background as a Rust Belt native to woo working-class voters. Zoom in: Harris could try to neutralize Vance with her own VP selection. Besides Shapiro, Democratic Govs. Roy Cooper (North Carolina) and Andy Beshear (Kentucky) are VP contenders with broad appeal among moderate Democrats. Harris "and whoever her running mate is are going to have to work Pennsylvania very hard," Ceisler said. "She's going to have to introduce herself to the electorate — and she can't let herself be painted as some far-left 'woke' activist from San Francisco, because she's not." What to watch: The "Blue Wall" states aren't the only places where Harris' emerging coalition will be tested. Democratic strategist Tony Cani, the Biden campaign's Arizona deputy director in 2020, said recent Democratic victories relied on high turnout among young voters and people of color. He's hoping Harris will re-engage those voters who were on the fence about Biden, who trailed Trump by several points in Arizona polls. The bottom line: Tharon Johnson, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist, said the 2020 Biden-Harris campaign was successful because of its broad coalition of voters. "She's got to extend that hand to that working-class ... moderate [and] independent voters that I think are actually up for grabs," Johnson said.
Harris winning in swing states – votes in North Carolina
Doran and Thomas 7/21, Reporter, fact-checker, Latin champ. Now digging into North Carolina politicians and government. 2019 to present: Reporter, WRAL-TV; 2017 to 2019; Reporter/Multimedia Journalist, WRIC-TV, Richmond, VA; 2015 to 2017; Reporter/Multimedia Journalist, WTAJ-TV, State College, PA (Thomas Doran and Aaron Thomas, July 21 2024, “Will Kamala Harris help democrats win North Carolina if she’s the party nominee”, WRAL news, July 24 2024, https://www.wral.com/story/will-kamala-harris-help-democrats-win-north-carolina-if-she-s-the-party-nominee/21535280/) DH
If Harris earns the nomination, polling conducted before Biden's decision shows she might have a higher hurdle to clear than Biden did in North Carolina. North Carolina delegates and Gov. Roy Cooper, rumored to be on a short list of possible Harris running mates, endorsed the vice president Sunday.
Democratic delegates from North Carolina unanimously endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to be the party’s presidential nominee Sunday after a whirlwind of political maneuvering in the hours after President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection campaign.
Biden said Sunday afternoon on social media that he won’t seek reelection and endorsed Harris to take his place atop the ticket. The move came weeks after an uneven debate performance that caused many Democrats to question the viability of his campaign.
Biden's decision gives Democrats a chance to repair its image with voters in key battleground states — including North Carolina, where he lost to the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, by less than 75,000 votes.
Biden doesn’t get to automatically pick his successor.
A presidential nominee isn’t decided until Democratic delegates from across the nation vote for a candidate at the party’s convention next month. The process is usually easy: delegates typically vote for the candidate who won the primary in their state. With Biden out of the race, the party’s delegates are slated to attend the convention while unassigned.
North Carolina’s delegates expressed their endorsement as delegates from other states — including Colorado, Alabama and Tennessee — started to do the same, and as other North Carolina political leaders started to close ranks behind Harris.
"This November, it’ll be a prosecutor going up against a felon," North Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton said in a statement late Sunday, referencing Harris' background as San Francisco's district attorney and California's attorney general. "It will be experience going up against extremism."
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, rumored to be on a short list of possible Harris running mates if she wins the nomination, endorsed Harris ahead of the party’s announcement.
"She has what it takes to defeat Donald Trump and lead our country thoughtfully and with integrity,” Cooper said Sunday on X, formerly known as Twitter. “I look forward to campaigning for her as we work to win NC up and down the ticket.”
Cooper later spoke with Harris by phone to express his support.
Added U.S. Rep. Deborah Ross, a Raleigh Democrat: “The path forward is clear — we must unite behind Vice President Kamala Harris to defeat Donald Trump. Together, we can win in November and build on the historic progress forged by President Biden.”
While support for Harris was growing Sunday, she will still need the support of the majority of the party’s hundreds of delegates across the nation.
Biden’s endorsement of Harris will carry weight with delegates who were pledged to him, but it’s not a slam dunk — they can choose to support someone else.
Democratic National Committee Chairman Jaime Harrison, in a statement, promised “a transparent and orderly process to move forward as a united Democratic Party with a candidate who can defeat Donald Trump in November.”
The Democrats haven’t gone into a convention without a clear nominee since 1968, the infamous Chicago convention that ended in violence in the streets over candidates’ positions on the Vietnam War and civil rights.
Biden’s endorsement was already paying dividends late Sunday.
The Durham County Democratic Party announced its endorsement of Harris hours before the state’s delegates declared their support for the vice president. Biden’s backing underpinned the decision, said Emerson Kirby, a vice chairwoman for the county party.
“She's ready to run this nation and I think that the continued support that we're seeing so quickly only speaks to that,” Kirby said.
Harris wins – she can easily gain in swing states
Zurcher 7/23/24 [Anthony; July 23, BBC North America correspondent, “Has Kamala Harris got what it takes to beat Trump?”, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c035dp3glypo]
This renewed sense of Democratic presidential enthusiasm comes with a dollar sign attached. According to the Harris campaign, the vice-president raised more than $80m (£62m) in new donations in the 24 hours since Mr Biden’s announcement – the biggest one-day total of any candidate this election cycle. That, along with the nearly $100m she inherits from the Biden-Harris fundraising coffers, gives her a firm financial footing for the campaign to come.
Ms Harris, if she becomes the nominee, also defuses one of the most effective attacks the Republicans have levelled against their opponent: his age.
For months, the Trump campaign has been pounding Mr Biden for being feeble and easily confused – characterisations that were reinforced for many Americans after the president’s halting debate performance four weeks ago.
The vice-president, at age 59, will be a more energetic campaigner and able to make a more coherent case for her party. She could also turn the 78-year-old Trump’s age against him, as he would become the oldest person ever elected president.
Ms Harris may also be able to shore up support from black voters, who polls indicate had been drifting away from Mr Biden in recent months. If she can combine that with more backing from other minorities and younger voters – Barack Obama’s winning coalition from 2008 and 2012 – it could help her gain ground against Trump in the handful of swing states that will decide this year’s election.
Her background as a prosecutor could also burnish tough-on-crime credentials. While her law-enforcement resume was a liability when she ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2019 – and led to derisive “Kamala is a cop” attacks from the left – it could help her in a campaign against Trump.
UQ—Undecided/Swing
Harris will consolidate the democratic base and will win over undecided voters.
Garrison 7/24/24 [7/24/24, Joey Garrison is a White House correspondent for USA TODAY, “Kamala Harris campaign maps out 'path to victory,' raises $126 million in three days”, USA TODAY, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/24/kamala-harris-campaign-charts-path-to-victory-over-trump/74521667007/] HongruiH
WASHINGTON — Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign for president outlined her "path to victory" against former President Donald Trump in a memo Wednesday, touting $126 million now raised since President Joe Biden announced his exit from the 2024 election.
Jen O'Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris campaign, said in the memo that Harris is in "a strong position to win," pointing to three main factors: Harris' "well-documented support" among Black, Hispanic, and young voters, each core Democratic constituencies; an opportunity to expand Democrats' growing advantage with college-educated voters; and Harris' appeal with undecided voters.
After Biden dropped out, Harris quickly secured enough Democratic National Committee delegates to become the presumptive Democratic nominee and coalesced the party's establishment behind her bid. Yet the coming days are critical as she looks to define her candidacy amid attacks from Republicans and prove to Democrats she has a plan to beat Trump, the Republican nominee.
More:Harris campaign vetting at least 7 Dems for VP, including Whitmer, Cooper, Kelly, Shapiro
Harris energizes the Democratic base, O'Malley Dillon said, pointing to a net approval rating that is 54 percentage points ahead of Trump with Black voters, 25 percentages better than Trump among young voters, 21 points better among women voters, and 30 points higher than Trump among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters.
She said Harris performs better than Trump among undecided, independent, and third-party Latino voters as well as Latino voters who are skeptical of both Biden and Trump.
Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks at West Allis Central High School during her first campaign rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 23, 2024.
Yet beyond the base, O'Malley Dillon said Harris is well-positioned to improve on Democrats' strong performances in 2020 and the 2022 midterms that were buoyed by suburban voters who are turned off by Trump. The group includes Democrats, independents and some Republicans.
Among white college-educated voters, O'Malley Dillon said Harris' net favorability is 19 percentage points higher than Trump. She said Harris tops Trump's net favorability among voters 65 and older by 18 percentage points.
"The Vice President has been at the forefront on the very issues that are most important to these voters – restoring women’s reproductive rights and upholding the rule of law following January 6, Donald Trump’s criminal convictions, and the Supreme Court’s immunity decision" O'Malley Dillon said.
Harris will win swing states—undecided voters favor her
Dixon & Boehm 6/24 (Kristal Dixon & Jessica Boehm; BA of Arts Mass Communications University of West Georgia, trained in US Census Bureau Research, award winner from the Georgia Press Association, Reporter on government accountability, BA/MMC Journalism and Mass Communication Arizona State University of Downtown Phoenix, outstanding graduate award from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism with 4.0 GPA, reporter for Axios Phoenix; 6/24/24; Axios, DA: 6/24/24, https://www.axios.com/2024/07/24/kamala-harris-swing-states-test-2024-trump) AM
For all of the enthusiasm and cash Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is generating for Democrats, her true tests are about to begin.
Why it matters: To beat Donald Trump, Harris will have to overcome President Biden's polling deficits — and questions about how well she'll fare with working-class voters in the crucial "Blue Wall" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The Californian likely will need to win all three without "Scranton Joe" — the monicker Biden used to remind Pennsylvania voters of his working-class roots when he won the presidency in 2020.
Early national polls suggest Harris' entry has given Democrats a bump in a tight race, but the presidential election is a state-by-state contest.
Harris appears to be energizing many young and minority voters. A big question is whether she also can maintain Biden's recent success among older voters — and stem Democrats' losses among groups such as Latino men and whites who didn't go to college.
In a strategy memo released early Wednesday, Harris' campaign argues she can. She aims to do so partly by focusing on women's reproductive rights and contrasting Trump's legal problems with her history as a prosecutor.
Biden's victory over Trump in 2020 was aided by his gains among whites who didn't attend college, a group that helped Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center.
Driving the news: Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive, said he doesn't expect Harris to match Biden's numbers in rural parts of the state.
But, he said, Harris "is going to boost turnout and support from African American voters, diverse voters and younger voters."
"It could be a net positive for the ticket," Ceisler said.
Another thing that might help in must-win Pennsylvania: Harris is considering Josh Shapiro, the state's popular Democratic governor, as her running mate. Putting him on the ticket could alter the calculus there.
What they're saying: In its memo, Harris' campaign argues that she's positioned to expand Biden's winning coalition from 2020.
"Her net favorability is 19 points higher than Trump's among white, college-educated voters, and 18

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