Business Confidence DA - Michigan 2024 CPSW

Business Confidence DA
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Uniqueness - Small business confidence high---U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small business of index data proves
ASBN 7-1-24, Small business owners and entrepreneurs depend on ASBN’s extensive collection of articles covers a range of topics, including finance, marketing, technology, leadership and more. (ASBN, 7-1-2024, " Small Business Update: SMBs confidence soars amid economic challenges," America’s Small Business Network, accessed 7/6/2024, https://www.asbn.com/small-business-shows/small-business-update-us-chamber-commerce/small-business-update-smbs-confidence-soars-amid-economic-challenges/) //CPSW_AChiong
Small business owners are feeling more confident about their businesses despite today’s inflation, according to The Q2 MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index. In fact, the index score has now hit its highest score since 2019. Joining us on the latest episode of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Update to discuss this further is Tom Sullivan, the Vice President of Small Business Policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Key Takeaways
1. The Q2 MetLife and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index shows a remarkable rise in confidence among small business owners, reaching its highest score since 2019. This is a testament to the resilience and adaptability of small businesses in managing their cash flows despite ongoing economic challenges such as inflation and high interest rates.
2. Small business owners are not just optimistic, they are highly so about their revenue prospects for the next 12 months, with a staggering 73% expressing bullish expectations. This level of positivity is not just high, it’s the highest recorded since the index began seven years ago, indicating a strong confidence in post-election economic stability and growth opportunities.
3. Despite the increased confidence, small businesses continue to face significant challenges. Inflation remains a top concern, along with the high costs of goods, hiring, and borrowing. There is a notable disparity between the positive outlook on individual business performance and the more cautious view of the national economy, with only 34% of small businesses having a positive outlook on the broader economic environment.
4. The upcoming presidential election is temporarily halting economic activities, with businesses adopting a wait-and-see approach. However, there is an underlying optimism that the economic environment will stabilize after the election, allowing businesses to expand, hire new employees, and meet increased demand.
Link – <insert based on the topic area/affirmative (ex. Copyright, patents, trademarks) you’re debating, likely to say the plan harms small businesses/confidence>
Internal link - Small businesses are key to the US economy
Main & Bottorff 1/31 (Kelly Main and Cassie Bottorff, *Kelly Main is a digital marketing expert. She has spent the last seven years helping small to medium-sized businesses and startups launch and grow successfully through practical digital content. She is currently the Marketing Editor and Writer for Forbes Advisor SMB. Outside of Forbes Advisor, Kelly Main is a Columnist at Inc. Magazine where she covers startup, tech and productivity. She is a former Google Tech Entrepreneur with a successful exit and a former advisor in a U.K.-based startup incubator. Cassie Bottorff is an Editor at Forbes. “Small Business Statistics Of 2024,” 1/31/2024. Accessed 6/29/2024 https://www.forbes.com/advisor/business/small-business-statistics/) IL TG
While giants in technology and multinational corporations often capture the public’s attention, it’s small businesses that form the crux of the American economy. As we step into 2024, these businesses continue to evolve, reflecting not only their enduring role in job creation but also their significant contributions to innovation, economic dynamism and the country’s overall prosperity. The latest small business statistics for 2024 do more than just present a snapshot of the current state of affairs; they offer a window into the emerging trends and future directions.
Small Business Employment Statistics
1. Almost all businesses across the U.S. are small businesses
While large corporations often grab headlines, it’s small businesses that form the bedrock of the American economy. Recent data from the U.S. Small Business Administration reveals a remarkable figure: 33.3 million businesses[1] in the United States qualify as small businesses, making up 99.9% of all U.S. businesses. This number not only reflects the dominance of small enterprises in the business sector but also shows their significant role in generating employment and contributing to economic stability, a trend that remains relevant in 2024.
2. Nearly half of all U.S. employees are employed by a small business
The impact of small businesses on the U.S. job market is more significant than often perceived. Although a majority of small businesses, over 80%, operate without any staff, these entities still employ a total of 61.6 million people. This figure represents 45.9% of the entire U.S. workforce[1], a remarkable statistic especially when considering that fewer than 20% of small businesses have any employees. This data not only shows the importance of small enterprises in job creation but also their role in sustaining the economy. It’s clear that the growth of small businesses is integral to the nation’s employment health and overall economic success.
Impact – US Economy collapse causes extinction
Zoë Baird 20, A.B. Phi Beta Kappa and J.D. from the University of California, Berkeley, Member of the Aspen Strategy Group, CEO and President of the Markle Foundation, Former Trustee at the Council on Foreign Relations and Partner in the law firm of O’Melveny & Myers, “Equitable Economic Recovery Is a National Security Imperative”, in Domestic and International (Dis)Order: A Strategic Response, Ed. Bitounis and King, October 2020, p. 89-90
Broadly shared economic prosperity is a bedrock of America’s economic and political strength—both domestically and in the international arena. A strong and equitable recovery from the economic crisis created by COVID-19 would be a powerful testament to the resilience of the American system and its ability to create prosperity at a time of seismic change and persistent global crisis. Such a recovery could attack the profound economic inequities that have developed over the past several decades. Without bold action to help all workers access good jobs as the economy returns, the United States risks undermining the legitimacy of its institutions and its international standing. The outcome will be a key determinant of America’s national security for years to come. An equitable recovery requires a national commitment to help all workers obtain good jobs—particularly the two-thirds of adults without a bachelor’s degree and people of color who have been most affected by the crisis and were denied opportunity before it. As the nation engages in a historic debate about how to accelerate economic recovery, ambitious public investment is necessary to put Americans back to work with dignity and opportunity. We need an intentional effort to make sure that the jobs that come back are good jobs with decent wages, benefits, and mobility and to empower workers to access these opportunities in a profoundly changed labor market. To achieve these goals, American policy makers need to establish job growth strategies that address urgent public needs through major programs in green energy, infrastructure, and health. Alongside these job growth strategies, we need to recognize and develop the talents of workers by creating an adult learning system that meets workers’ needs and develops skills for the digital economy. The national security community must lend its support to this cause. And as it does so, it can bring home the lessons from the advances made in these areas in other countries, particularly our European allies, and consider this a realm of international cooperation and international engagement.
Shared Economic Prosperity Is a National Security Asset
A strong economy is essential to America’s security and diplomatic strategy. Economic strength increases our influence on the global stage, expands markets, and funds a strong and agile military and national defense. Yet it is not enough for America’s economy to be strong for some—prosperity must be broadly shared. Widespread belief in the ability of the American economic system to create economic security and mobility for all—the American Dream— creates credibility and legitimacy for America’s values, governance, and alliances around the world. After World War II, the United States grew the middle class to historic size and strength. This achievement made America the model of the free world—setting the stage for decades of American political and economic leadership. Domestically, broad participation in the economy is core to the legitimacy of our democracy and the strength of our political institutions. A belief that the economic system works for millions is an important part of creating trust in a democratic government’s ability to meet the needs of the people.
The COVID-19 Crisis Puts Millions of American Workers at Risk For the last several decades, the American Dream has been on the wane. Opportunity has been increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small share of workers able to access the knowledge economy. Too many Americans, particularly those without four-year degrees, experienced stagnant wages, less stability, and fewer opportunities for advancement. Since COVID-19 hit, millions have lost their jobs or income and are struggling to meet their basic needs—including food, housing, and medical care.1 The crisis has impacted sectors like hospitality, leisure, and retail, which employ a large share of America’s most economically vulnerable workers, resulting in alarming disparities in unemployment rates along education and racial lines. In August, the unemployment rate for those with a high school degree or less was more than double the rate for those with a bachelor’s degree.2 Black and Hispanic Americans are experiencing disproportionately high unemployment, with the gulf widening as the crisis continues.3 The experience of the Great Recession shows that without intentional effort to drive an inclusive recovery, inequality may get worse: while workers with a high school education or less experienced the majority of job losses, nearly all new jobs went to workers with postsecondary education. Inequalities across racial lines also increased as workers of color worked in the hardest-hit sectors and were slower to recover earnings and income than White workers.4
The Case for an Inclusive Recovery A recovery that promotes broad economic participation, renewed opportunity, and equity will strengthen American moral and political authority around the world. It will send a strong message about the strength and resilience of democratic government and the American people’s ability to adapt to a changing global economic landscape. An inclusive recovery will reaffirm American leadership as core to the success of our most critical international alliances, which are rooted in the notion of shared destiny and interdependence. For example, NATO, which has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy and a force of global stability for decades, has suffered from American disengagement in recent years. A strong American recovery—coupled with a renewed openness to international collaboration—is core to NATO’s ability to solve shared geopolitical and security challenges. A renewed partnership with our European allies from a position of economic strength will enable us to address global crises such as climate change, global pandemics, and refugees. Together, the United States and Europe can pursue a commitment to investing in workers for shared economic competitiveness, innovation, and long-term prosperity. The U.S. has unique advantages that give it the tools to emerge from the crisis with tremendous economic strength— including an entrepreneurial spirit and the technological and scientific infrastructure to lead global efforts in developing industries like green energy and biosciences that will shape the international economy for decades to come.
2NC/1NR - Uniqueness – Biz Con High - index data
Business confidence at a 4 year high – index data
Leo Gonzalez 6-21. BA in Journalism. “Small Business Owner Economic Confidence Skyrockets to Peak Levels Since Biden's Inauguration.” Reitinsight. 6-21-2024. https://reitinsight.com/posts/small-business-owner-economic-confidence-skyrockets-to-peak-levels-since-bidens-inauguration-2551 //A.Ivaturi. Date accessed: 6/27/24.
Economic Optimism Surges Among Small Business Owners
Economic optimism among small business owners is rising as the quarterly Small Business Confidence Index reaches its highest level since Joe Biden took office in 2021. Twenty-eight percent of small business owners say the current state of the economy is “excellent” or “good,” up five percentage points from the prior quarter. Still, inflation concerns linger, and President Biden’s approval ratings remain low. Even in the face of stubborn inflation, small business owners are striking a more positive tone. Optimism surrounding the economy is rising, and the CNBC Small Business Confidence Index reached its highest level since President Joe Biden took office, according to the latest quarterly data released on Thursday morning.
Economic Conditions and Small Business Confidence
Twenty-eight percent of small business owners describe the current state of the economy as “excellent” or “good,” up five percentage points from the prior quarter and up from 18% year over year, according to the Small Business Survey for Q1 2024. It’s the most optimistic respondents to the survey have been since CNBC and SurveyMonkey began asking this question in Q2 of 2022. The Small Business Confidence Index reading of 47 out of 100 marked the highest reading since Joe Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021. A recent string of data has found consumers and small business owners beginning to show more confidence about the economy, even as challenges linger.
Expert Insights on Small Business Optimism
“We’re kind of seeing a potential turn around the corner in terms of small business optimism,” said Sam Gutierrez, senior research scientist at SurveyMonkey, pointing to an uptick in survey responses about economic strength and the general direction in the fight against inflation after two years of stagnation in this survey data. The Q1 survey was conducted online from January 22 to February 1, 2024, among a national sample of 3,119 self-identified small business owners ages 18 and up using SurveyMonkey’s methodology.
Inflation Remains a Key Concern Inflation — which has proven to be stubborn based on the most recent data even as significant progress has been made in bringing prices down from a peak level — continues to weigh on owners, with nearly a third saying it is currently the biggest risk to business. That is more than double the amount who cite consumer demand, interest rates, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions as key issues. “Inflation is still top of mind,” Gutierrez said. “But we’re seeing this cautious optimism on inflation, and costs in general.” Confidence in the Federal Reserve
Confidence in the Fed to control inflation is now at 35% among small business owners, the highest it has been since the beginning of 2022. The percentage of business owners (29%) who say inflation has peaked, while it remains a minority of the survey audience, is also at its highest level since the beginning of 2022. Inflation is part of how owners surveyed say they will evaluate candidates for the 2024 election, with 60% of small business owners reporting inflation and interest rates are their top issue when it comes to deciding who to vote for in November, along with economic growth (60%), followed by tax policy (51%).
Real-World Impact of Inflation on Small Businesses Inflation woes have hit John Morman’s small business, Celtic Tides, over the course of the last year. Morman imports and sells items from Wales, Ireland, and Scotland, including kilts, jewelry, and more. The Lexington, Virginia-based business just celebrated its 25th anniversary. “When you deal with an imported item, rising costs hit us from several directions. The cost of international freight has risen. The cost of the items that are made in the places we buy our products from, their costs have all increased, the value of the dollar has dropped,” he told CNBC, adding that his costs have gone up by as much as 15% but he has passed on less than half of that to the consumer. Strategies to Cope with Rising Costs “We hold off on price increases, absolutely, as best we can. But inevitably, some of those costs do have to be passed on,” Morman said. Right now, Morman’s top concern is a lack of consumer spending, even though he’s feeling on the whole that this year will be better than the last. “It’s been a very strange year so far. There have been times when normally we would be busy and we haven’t been, and times when we would normally expect to be quiet and we’ve been busy, so the year so far is lagging behind last year. So as a community we’re, as I say, we’re a little concerned,” Morman said. “I think there is still a lot of concern over rising costs.” The Future Outlook for Small Business Owners
Despite ongoing concerns about inflation and economic challenges, the overall sentiment among small business owners is improving. The rising confidence is a positive sign for the economy as a whole, indicating that small business owners are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel. This increased optimism could lead to more investments, hiring, and expansion among small businesses, further boosting economic growth.
Conclusion In summary, the economic optimism among small business owners is at its highest level since President Joe Biden took office, as reflected in the latest CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index. While inflation remains a significant concern, there is a growing sense of cautious optimism about the future. Small business owners are beginning to feel more confident about the economy, which could have positive implications for overall economic growth and stability in the coming months.
Business confidence high – Index Data Proves
Cingari 6/21—Pierro Cingari 2024, accomplished financial writer with experience in the asset management and brokerage industry., 2024 (“US Private Sector Activity Exceeds Estimates, Fastest Growth In 2 Years – Will The Fed Welcome The Data,” BENZINGA Newswire, 06/21, Available Online at https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/us-private-sector-activity-exceeds-estimates-fastest-growth-in-2-years-%E2%80%93-will-the-fed-welcome-the-data-1033496525,DOA: 6-25-2024// St. Marks Adam)
The latest surveys by S&P Global reveal an American economy firing on all cylinders in June, with robust activity and cooling inflation creating a goldilocks environment, giving the Fed more leeway to cut interest rates.
S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) For June: Key Highlights
The Composite PMI rose to 54.6 in June, up by 0.1 percentage points from May and marking the highest level since April 2022.
The Services PMI rose from 54.8 in May to 55.1, topping estimates of 53.7 as collected by Econoday. It marks the strongest services sector expansion in two years. Services activity has now risen for 17 consecutive months.
The Manufacturing PMI also improved in its growth path, rising from 51.3 to 51.7, beating forecasts of 51.
S&P Global highlighted an improved business confidence for the

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