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Democrats would not have had such a good election night without the support of independent voters.

These mystical swing voters don’t affiliate themselves with a specific party, tend to be more ideologically moderate, and represent a plurality of voters in the United States. But they are also hard to reach, often less politically engaged, and frequently confused with “weak partisans” (less energetic Democrats or Republicans) because they can have ideological leans.

In the end there was no red wave. And there was no blue wave.

There was an independent wave.

As outlined in our recently released book, “The Independent Voter,” my co-authors Jacqueline Salit and Omar Ali and I outline how political scientists and the media have been extremely skeptical and dismissive of independent voters. They often conclude that independents are uninformed, uninvolved “leaners” or “shadow partisans” who are likely voters for Democrats or Republicans but just don’t want to say so out loud.

We believe that conclusion is based on the two-party bias that is baked into the U.S. political system. That bias has misshaped the research and analytical tools used to understand this community of Americans.

However, other scholars, including me, disagree with the assertion that most independents are really leaning toward a party. We think there is more volatility in their voter patterns when tracked over time.

Some researchers have argued that independents' responses to questions asking whether they lean toward the Democratic or Republican parties are significantly affected by short-term factors related to whatever campaign is happening at the time, such as particular candidates and specific issues. This is one reason it would be useful if surveys asked all respondents - not just independents - how closely they identify with one party or the other.

Independent voters who live in communities with lots of gun violence are very concerned about gun safety and gun regulations, our research has found. That should not be surprising.

But what is surprising is our companion finding: Democrats and Republicans who live in those same communities have views on gun violence and gun regulations that line up more closely with their party leaders’ views than with the experiences of their daily lives.

At first glance, becoming president looks like simple arithmetic: Carry at least 90% of your party’s adherents and win more independents than the other candidate and voilà, you’re in the White House.

That’s how Donald Trump won in 2016. It’s also how Joe Biden defeated Trump four years later. The equation works as long as there is near-parity between the parties, as in 2020 when the electorate was 36% Republican, 37% Democratic and 26% Independent.

Their focus is on the economy. To the extent they do care about politics, it is focused heavily on the economy, with a plurality (33%) ranking it as their top issue in the 2024 election.

Swing voters say they want Biden to take more action — not less. Sixty-one percent say that “Biden needs to take more action to solve our country's problems” (compared with 49% of likely voters overall), while 22% say that “Biden has taken too much action that has made our country’s problems worse.”

I’ve always been partial to the theory that a candidate or party that wins independent voters will win an election. And if independents are key, then the Trump campaign may want to keep a close eye on recent polling.

So far in the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump has enjoyed consistent support from independents despite losing their votes by 13 points in 2020. For example, the April New York Times/Siena poll had Trump winning likely voters overall by 1 point and likely independent voters by 4 points. The April Fox News poll of registered voters had Trump winning registered voters overall by 1 point and independent voters by 2 points.

Based on exit poll data immediately available following the 2022 midterm elections, we estimate that 27% of youth (ages 18-29) cast a ballot in 2022, making this the midterm election with the second-highest youth voter turnout in almost three decades. We also estimate that youth turnout was even higher in some battleground states.

After hovering around 20% turnout in midterm elections since the 1990s, young people shifted that trend in 2018 and largely maintained that trend in 2022, with more than a quarter of young people casting a ballot. Youth are increasing their electoral participation, leading movements, and making their voices heard on key issues that affect their communities.

They protest, they identify with political parties and they vote. They were born after 1990.

Young people reaching the age to vote for the first time (18 years old) are more involved in the political process today than the generations before them were at the same age.

As the 2024 presidential election looms, concerns over youth voter turnout is quickly becoming a sweeping concern among politico pundits.

Just 49% of young Americans ages 18-29 plan to vote in the 2024 presidential election compared to the 57% who planned to vote in the last election, according to the Harvard Institute youth poll.

GREEN BAY, Wisconsin, April 21 (Reuters) - Thin with a boyish face and earrings in both ears, 23-year-old Isayah Turner does not look like a stereotypical Trump supporter, who tend to be middle aged or older.

Nevertheless, Turner drove two hours from his home outside Milwaukee on a recent Tuesday to see Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, one of a contingent of young voters there that some opinion polls suggest could be a growing and important demographic for Trump.

Former President Trump appears to be making stunning inroads with young voters as he stakes out youth-friendly positions that defy GOP orthodoxy and contradict past statements.

Why it matters: The prospect of Trump coming within striking distance of winning young voters — which shows up in poll after poll — would have seemed unthinkable at the outset of the cycle.

Yet data from the NPR poll shows that the war in Gaza ranks relatively low among Americans’ concerns. Respondents were asked which issue is most important to them when thinking about the upcoming presidential election. Most were anxious about inflation (18%), followed by economic growth (11%), the state of democracy (9%), income inequality (8%), abortion (7%), immigration (7%), poverty (6%), health care (4%), taxes (4%), and the war in Gaza (4%).

In its recent poll, Quinnipiac asked voters whom they thought would do a better job handling the economy – Biden or Trump – regardless of how they intend to vote. Trump performed significantly better than Biden among total voters, receiving 54% support compared to Biden’s 42% support. The real shock, however, comes when that question is broken down by age group: 66% of voters aged 18-34 think Trump would do a better job of handling the economy, while only 29% of young voters feel the same way about Biden.

The youth vote could be critical to both political parties in the upcoming presidential election.

In a close election, votes from young adults will be important, according to Valley political experts. Their support and votes won two presidential elections for Barack Obama and the 2020 election for Joe Biden.

Monday’s poll also found that young voters want to see improvements made regarding the economy and daily expenses.

Eighty percent of respondents said lowering health care prices and expanding coverage are important goals for America to achieve.

Voters under the age of 30 have largely been part of the Democratic camp since former President Barack Obama won two-thirds of them in 2008. That same age group may have helped put President Joe Biden over the top in 2020, and assisted Democrats in broadly overperforming expectations in the 2022 midterms. And there's some evidence that these young voters are staying liberal even as they age, defying the trend of previous generations. That's especially true of millennials, the now-27 to 42 year-olds who were so taken with Obama's first campaign. (Throughout this analysis, we use the Pew Research Center's definitions of millennials and Generation Z.)

Young voters are consistently more liberal than the general electorate is on a range of issues, according to a 538 analysis. We took a look at data from the Cooperative Election Study, a Harvard University survey of at least 60,000 Americans taken before the 2020 elections and the 2022 midterms, and found notable differences between younger voters and the general electorate on key issues like the environment, abortion and immigration. That could make a big difference in the general election — that is, if young voters actually show up to vote.

Some observers argue the labor movement in America is "having a moment," but for the four largest public-sector workers' unions—AFSCME, SEIU, NEA, and AFT—the "moment" is defined by declining membership and waning relevance.

In the four years since the landmark 2018 Supreme Court decision Janus v. AFSCME, which barred public-sector unions from collecting mandatory fees, those unions have seen a loss of more than 200,000 members.

Democrats in Michigan have warned the White House that President Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict could cost him enough support within the Arab American community to sway the outcome of the 2024 election in a state he almost certainly can’t afford to lose in his bid for reelection.

The situation has prompted the White House to discuss ways to alleviate tensions with some of the state’s prominent Democrats, including several who have been vocal critics of the president about the war.

“Donald Trump has never had a real job before,” said Robinson, a 35-year Ford employee who started on the assembly line and now works in quality control. “He’s never come in there and shot six bolts and put in four push pins 600 times a day on the assembly line.”

“He’s never shoveled crap,” Robinson continued. “He’s never done a hard day’s work. Not physical work like you do in the plant. And he has a solid gold toilet at home. So, I mean, how can he really empathize with your life?”