Independents are not “secret partisans” – their measuring methodologies are flawed
Reilly 6/10/24 [Dr. Thom, professor in the School of Public Affairs, Co-Director at the Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University; “Why is it so hard to know how many independent voters there are?”; The Conversation; https://theconversation.com/why-is-it-so-hard-to-know-how-many-independent-voters-there-are-231568] /sb
However, other scholars, including me, disagree with the assertion that most independents are really leaning toward a party. We think there is more volatility in their voter patterns when tracked over time.
Some researchers have argued that independents' responses to questions asking whether they lean toward the Democratic or Republican parties are significantly affected by short-term factors related to whatever campaign is happening at the time, such as particular candidates and specific issues. This is one reason it would be useful if surveys asked all respondents - not just independents - how closely they identify with one party or the other.
In our January 2023 article "The Fluid Voter," my colleague Dan Hunting and I analyzed ANES data on political identification and voting choices from 1972 to 2020. We observed significant volatility in loyalty to party among independent voters over more than one election. We also found evidence that a sizable number of independents move in and out of independent status from one election to another. We argue there is a need to look at long-term voting behavior of specific voters.