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2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Pause Now

AI Innovation Stalling

Technology Processes, 5-23-2024, Manufacturing Business Technology, https://www.mbtmag.com/artificial-intelligence/news/22910681/study-managers-buy-ai-hype-but-results-stall, 7-29-2024, | AC

New research from , the global cloud enterprise software company, has found that executive and board leadership have ‘bought the AI hype’ but organizations are unable to deliver operationally on expectations. The new global study of 1,700 senior decision makers, Industrial AI: the new frontier for productivity, innovation and competition, found that the promise of AI is being held back by technology, processes, and skills. Half of respondents remain optimistic that with the right AI strategy, value can be realized in the next two years, and a quarter believe in the next year. Expectations failing to meet reality 84% of executives anticipate massive organizational benefits from AI, with the top three areas where AI is expected to deliver high impact value: product & service innovation, improved internal & external data availability, and cost reductions & margin gains. The hype has become so high that 82% of senior decision-makers acknowledge that there is significant pressure to adopt AI quickly. However, this same group of respondents state that they are concerned that a failure to plan, implement and communicate properly means AI projects will stall in pilot stage. Many organizations have not prioritized elements of development, nor have the infrastructure required to reap the rewards or the skills to deliver on that promise. The study found that over a third (34%) of businesses had not moved to the cloud. While this is not essential to AI adoption, it is indicative of an unprepared enterprise unlikely to be able to scale AI across their business. According to IFS, a robust Industrial AI strategy requires a potent combination of cloud, data, processes, and skills. 80% of respondents agree that the lack of a strategic approach means they have insufficient skills in-house to successfully adopt AI. This sentiment is seen elsewhere in the research with 43% of respondents rating the quality of AI resources in their business, in terms of human skills, as passable and not where it needs to be. Christian Pedersen, Chief Product Officer, IFS, commented: “AI is poised to become the most transformational enterprise tool ever seen, but our research reveals that there are still fundamental misunderstandings about how to harness its power within an industrial setting. It is telling that AI is expected to significantly reduce costs and raise margins, but a lack of robust strategy means most businesses are under-skilled and under-prepared to achieve these ambitions. We built IFS.ai specifically with these challenges in mind. AI value simply will not be found in a single AI capability but instead by delivering AI across all products and business processes. This supports customers' decision cycles and provides the data and AI services required to realize value faster.” Pedersen continued: “Achieving this at scale needs a clear-eyed strategic focus, including the high-impact use cases specific to their industry, having a cloud-based infrastructure in place which has industrial AI embedded, and investing early in developing the skills needed. Adopting this approach will turn the tide of disillusionment, and deliver the benefits that boards and the C-suite are demanding.” Outlook optimistic but planning needed The unfortunate reality of the skills gap means that in terms of AI readiness, many businesses are falling behind. IFS found that nearly half of respondents (48%) were most likely to say that they are gathering proposals and were much less likely to have a clear strategy and perceivable results (27%). A fifth of respondents are in the research phase, with uncontrolled tests taking place and a further 5% are lacking a coordinated approach and do not have anything in motion yet. Despite initial challenges, there is still optimism with respondents most likely to feel AI could make a significant difference to their business in 1-2 years (47%), and a further quarter (24%) believe it could be within a year. In particular, respondents are most optimistic about the impact of AI in smart production and/or service delivery on effectiveness & business and operational management (22%) in the future. One fifth see the biggest impact being on innovation with new products and services (20%), growth & business model decision-making (20%), empowering people and increasing talent retention (19%), and customer experience and customer service (19%). Action needed on data readiness To reap these benefits, enterprises need to leverage the most strategic asset they have—their data. The right data volume and quality is critical for the success of AI applications. Respondents recognize how important real-time data is to successful AI projects, with over 4 in 5 (86%) stating this. Yet despite this recognition, less than a quarter (23%) of respondents have completed their data foundation with it supporting both data-driven business decision making and real time response to changes, suggesting that more work needs to be done to get data AI ready. Moreover, under half (43%) of respondents have a majority structured data, with some unstructured. Pedersen commented: “The lack of maturity at the data foundation layer needs to be addressed as part of an overall AI strategy, otherwise AI simply will never be the magic bullet that can turbocharge the enterprise. Clearly enterprises need support on data management and migration. While AI is seen as a shiny new tool that will revolutionize business, like all technology, it is never that simple. The power of Industrial AI is that it can touch all facets of a business, from product innovation and customer experience to productivity and ESG. Its potential is massive if executives and organizations can combine vision, strategy, technology and skills. Now is the time to step back, take stock, and build a true Industrial AI plan and turn the hype into reality.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Pause Now

AI improvements are slowing now.

Mims 24 [Christopher Mims, BA in neuroscience and behavioral biology, Technology Columnist @ WSJ; “The AI Revolution Is Already Losing Steam,” 5/31/24, The Wall Street Journal; https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-ai-revolution-is-already-losing-steam-a93478b1]

The rate of improvement for AIs is slowing, and there appear to be fewer applications than originally imagined for even the most capable of them. It is wildly expensive to build and run AI. New, competing AI models are popping up constantly, but it takes a long time for them to have a meaningful impact on how most people actually work.

These factors raise questions about whether AI could become commoditized, about its potential to produce revenue and especially profits, and whether a new economy is actually being born. They also suggest that spending on AI is probably getting ahead of itself in a way we last saw during the fiber-optic boom of the late 1990s—a boom that led to some of the biggest crashes of the first dot-com bubble.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Pause Now

AI will slow down---the internet is too small.

Seetharaman 24 [Deepa Seetharaman, BS & BA in Journalism and History, Tech Reporter @ WSJ; “For Data-Guzzling AI Companies, the Internet Is Too Small,” 4/1/24, The Wall Street Journal; https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-training-data-synthetic-openai-anthropic-9230f8d8?mod=dhjem10point]

Companies racing to develop more powerful artificial intelligence are rapidly nearing a new problem: The internet might be too small for their plans.

Ever more powerful systems developed by OpenAI, Google and others require larger oceans of information to learn from. That demand is straining the available pool of quality public data online at the same time that some data owners are blocking access to AI companies.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Pause Now

AI stocks and investments are slowing now.

Alpert 7/26 [Bill Alpert, Bachelor’s degree in American Studies, Master’s degree in journalism and a law degree, Senior writer @ Barron's; “AI Doubts Are Growing. Investors Could Be Making a Mistake.,” 7/26/24, Barron’s; https://www.barrons.com/articles/earnings-reports-ai-stocks-chatgpt-e107bcf2]

The megacap tech stocks that have driven the market all year are officially sputtering. Since the second week of July, the Magnificent Seven stocks—from Amazon.com to Tesla —have lost altitude like fuel-spent rockets.

And this past week was worse. Alphabet reported slower revenue growth in its YouTube business. Lower electric-vehicle prices and deliveries crimped Tesla earnings. The Mag 7 trajectory turned lower still.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Pause Now

Momentum towards an AI pause now.

Schmidt 23 [Gregory Schmidt, came to The Times in 2007, Previous business editor at The Miami Herald, Bachelor’s degree in writing from the University of Tampa, master’s degree in mass communications from University of Florida.; “Elon Musk and Others Cite for Calling Pause on A.I., Citing ‘Risks to Society’,” 3/29/23, New York Times; https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/29/technology/ai-artificial-intelligence-musk-risks.html]

More than 1,000 technology leaders and researchers, including Elon Musk, have urged artificial intelligence labs to pause development of the most advanced systems, warning in an open letter that A.I. tools present “profound risks to society and humanity.”

A.I. developers are “locked in an out-of-control race to develop and deploy ever more powerful digital minds that no one — not even their creators — can understand, predict or reliably control,” according to the letter, which the nonprofit Future of Life Institute released on Wednesday.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Inev

AI is inevitable

Master Sri Akarshana ’23, an entrepreneur, author, international speaker, and philanthropist, “The Advancement Of Artificial Intelligence Is Inevitable. Here's How We Should Get Ready For It,” Entrepreneur, 06/16/2023, https://www.entrepreneur.com/en-ae/growth-strategies/the-advancement-of-artificial-intelligence-is-inevitable/454155 , Accessed 07/29/2024 by NT-SH  

But as AI advances, the question of whether AI is avoidable grows within our daily conversations, and, more specifically, about how can we balance the use of AI and humans in various industries. Several factors suggest AI is indeed inevitable. One of the most significant is the growth in computational power over the past few decades. Powerful processors and algorithms have enabled computers to perform increasingly complex tasks, from facial recognition to natural language processing. Additionally, there is an ever-increasing demand for AI applications in the healthcare, finance, and transportation industries. 

As these industries (and several more) become more reliant on automation and data analytics, the need for AI solutions will only grow. Furthermore, the potential benefits of AI are significant. For instance, AI has the potential to revolutionize healthcare, with predictive analytics and machine learning models helping doctors diagnose diseases and develop personalized treatment plans. AI can also aid in improving transportation by enabling autonomous vehicles to navigate roads safely and efficiently, reducing the number of accidents and traffic congestion. 

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Inev

AI is inevitable and it is time for governments to do something about it

Helen Lewis, 7-20-2024, Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/tony-blair-interview-on-ai/679112/, 7-29-2024, | AC

At first glance, Tony Blair is an unlikely evangelist for the wondrous possibilities of artificial intelligence. As prime minister of Great Britain from 1997 to 2007, he never carried a mobile phone. He didn’t get an official email address until 2003, and even wrote his 2010 memoir, A Journey, in longhand. But now this ex-politician finds himself one of the most prominent advocates for artificial intelligence outside Silicon Valley. He believes that AI will create as big a shift in our lives as the Industrial Revolution did, and that governments have been too slow to recognize the technology’s potential. It is a fitting coda to a career characterized by trying to skeptical audiences. As the leader of Britain’s Labour Party, Blair saw his job as trying to reconcile the left to the inevitable triumph of capitalism over socialism. One of his was to persuade the party to drop its commitment to nationalized industry, and as prime minister, he welcomed private contractors into the state-funded National Health Service. Trying to synthesize Silicon Valley’s most hyped technology with the public sector’s resistance to change is a classic Blairite project. Now, after decades spent thinking about how governments work, he is utterly convinced that AI will transform the world. “Government is all about process, and AI is all about automating process,” he told me when I visited the London headquarters of the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. And if we ever reach artificial general intelligence—an AI that can outperform humans on most tasks—the effect will be “just massive; everything is going to change.” Like many journalists, I view AI with a default level of skepticism, even suspicion. The wide eyes and hungry wallets of its champions make me twitch, and I wonder if these new god-kings truly understand that running a country is far more complicated than raising Series A funding for your internet-enabled . Sometimes, the Californian enthusiasm for innovation can blur into naivete. Blair recently appeared on a hosted by the Substack author Dwarkesh Patel, during which he was asked—I’m paraphrasing, but only just—why politicians shouldn’t put the private sector in charge of education and health care, because businesses are clearly superior to the state. Blair was left to explain, delicately, that “you can’t just hand everything over to the private sector, because in the end, the public will expect the government to take account of the public interest.” In other words, if Jeff Bezos or Sam Altman screwed up our welfare system, we couldn’t vote them out and give Elon Musk a try instead. What many citizens want from the state is not sexy innovation, but boring dependability. Still, when technological changes sweep through society, governments can either embrace or resist them—and unless Britain and other countries step up, big choices about the future will be made for them by a handful of private companies. That’s why Blair has positioned himself as the bridge between the utopian dreamers of the Bay Area and the overstretched civil servants who actually have to make cumbersome bureaucracies work—between the people who are excited that AI might , and the people who will have to manage the unemployment line if it does. The Tony Blair Institute has received in funding from Oracle chairman Larry Ellison’s foundation, among others. (Blair does not take a salary.) Where Blair is undoubtedly right is that tech giants now dominate the world. When he came to power in 1997, the most valuable company was General Electric, and tech firms held only three spots in the top 15. Today, the picture has flipped, with Microsoft, Apple, and the chipmaker Nvidia vying for the top spot—and all of them worth far more than GE was a quarter century ago. Wasn’t the internet equally transformative during his time in power? “It changed the way people interact with each other and all of that,” he said. “But it didn’t offer, for example, possibilities of doing drug discovery completely differently.” (He means Google DeepMind’s program, which uses machine learning to model protein structures, and therefore suggest molecules that might merit further research by pharmaceutical companies.) The internet, he said, “made government significantly more efficient, but not transformatively more efficient.” As for privacy concerns, he brushed them aside: “What is your most precious data?” he asked me. Probably my medical and financial records. He shrugged. “You already give that to people.” Blair has another reason for being interested in AI: He thinks it could boost economic growth, saving the British government from billions of pounds in tax hikes. In the ’90s and early 2000s, Blair and his chancellor of the exchequer, Gordon Brown, were able to redistribute money to the needy because of the strong economy—they among children and pensioners. “Basically, the rule was, if growth is reasonably significantly over 2 percent, life’s fantastic,” he told me. “If it’s much under 2 percent, it’s terrible. And I know that sounds ridiculous, but in government, that was more or less how it was.” Last year, though, British economic growth was an 0.1 percent, and it is not to reach 2 percent again until 2027. Blair also believes that AI could fix the many friction points that make interacting with the state so painful. Artificial intelligence could be used to prefill forms for welfare claimants, he believes, and to provide natural-language support for those struggling to access benefits, as well as personalized tutoring to school pupils. In the health service, AI might provide early diagnoses of degenerative and ; one London hospital is already using machine learning to automate of children’s bones to see if they are developing properly. “There are virtually limitless possibilities going to be opened up in health,” Blair said. “For new treatments, better diagnosis, you [being] able to take much more charge of your own health. You will have an AI nurse, probably an AI doctor, just as you’ll have an AI tutor.” As a politician, Blair always exuded conviction—he was often caricatured as an evangelist, and eventually some voters complained that his charm had duped them into accepting his evidence for the Iraq War. Talking breezily about and , he is totally convincing. Yet as he spoke, I could hear the dismissive tabloid phrasing forming in my mind: Tony Blair wants to replace the health service with chatbots. If the AI revolution happens on the scale suggested by its greatest champions, it will undoubtedly create losers. by the Tony Blair Institute suggests that “adoption of AI across the public-sector workforce could save around one-fifth of workforce time at a comparatively low cost.” Hmm. Workforce time, or overall head count? If I were reading that as a 50-something civil servant, the future would sound less exciting than terrifying. But Blair prefers not to fixate on the downsides. As a politician, he has always been defined by optimism. He celebrated his election victory with a song called “Things Can Only Get Better,” and was briefly popular with the artists, fashion designers, and pop stars of the Cool Britannia era. (The Spice Girls even asked him to be in the video for “Wannabe.” He declined.) When he left office, though, his otherwise positive record was tarnished by his decision to join George W. Bush in the invasion of Iraq. Blair spent several years unpleasant authoritarians and trying to bring peace to the Middle East. His Labour Party fell under Jeremy Corbyn, who had won the party leadership as the anti-Blair: uncompromising in his socialism, skeptical of NATO and Western military interventions, and a believer in a big state supported by higher taxes on the rich. The Brexit vote in 2016 led Blair to reengage with British politics at a time when he felt both the left and right had made serious errors. The decision to hold the referendum, he told me, “was all about the psychodrama within the Conservative Party rather than the country. And I think that’s honestly not a politically partisan thing to say.” Blair saw Brexit as an expression of nostalgia—a concession that Britain’s best days were behind it. “That must never be true for a country, and you can never think like that,” he said. Today, he enjoys working in developing countries whose leaders feel adamantly that things, for them, can only get better. “There is an introspection about Britain that I think is worrying, and of which Brexit was a part.” And so, in an extraordinary reinvention, Blair decided to claw himself back from persona non grata to elder statesman. In September 2016, three months after the referendum, he wound up most of his , and after nearly a decade in the well-remunerated wilderness, he founded the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. “He is no longer Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, but Prime Minister of Tony Blair Inc.,” my former Atlantic colleague Tom McTague last year. The institute, which now employs nearly 1,000 people, has offices in Accra, Abu Dhabi, and San Francisco. The day before we met, Blair had hosted an AI summit featuring Demis Hassabis, a co-founder of DeepMind, Britain’s most influential AI firm; former prime ministers of Italy and Finland; the newly minted Labour health minister, Wes Streeting; and will.i.am of the Black Eyed Peas, who is now a tech entrepreneur. (If you ever want to have an out-of-body experience, may I recommend listening to your childhood prime minister explain how the “My Humps” guy now co-presents a radio show with an .) Blair’s image rehab has been helped by the transformation of his political party under Keir Starmer, the new prime minister. In the past four years, Labour has moved back to the Blairite center on taxes, foreign policy, and the use of private companies in the health service—and on July 4, it won a Blair-size majority as a result. Like Margaret Thatcher, Britain’s other transformational leader of the past half century, Blair desperately wants to move forward, and he is not hobbled by introspection. Did Labour’s landslide leave Blair thinking about his own victory in 1997, I ask—or perhaps make him reappraise it? “It’s an interesting question,” he said. “I haven’t really thought about it. I suppose the answer must be no.” In Britain today, his opinion matters again. Our interview was carefully scheduled for after the election, to avoid the risk of headlines that would distract from Starmer’s ultracautious strategy. His new influence means the has already begun to mutter about him being the power behind Starmer’s throne. But Blair seems to have moved on to a more existential matter: trying to reassure people that AI will help more than it hurts. As he and I speak, investors are throwing money at buzzy companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, while everyone else is scrambling to catch up with them. Experts who believe that an artificial superintelligence is possible, or even imminent, argue about whether that superintelligence will wipe out humanity. AI is quickly insinuating itself into our lives. It has already changed my workday—I tell Blair that I will feed our interview into an AI transcription service, which saves me hours of work that were once a routine part of my job. Still, today’s generative AI has “hallucinations,” dreaming up fake quotes or citations. That’s what people fear: supposedly infallible cutting-edge computer systems going awry, and users’ complaints being dismissed. Two years ago, Blair was on a stage in the Bahamas with Bill Clinton and the crypto wunderkind Sam Bankman-Fried. (Clinton and Blair were in suits; Bankman-Fried, inevitably, wore a T-shirt, shorts, and sneakers.) SBF is now in jail for fraud, his billion-dollar company reduced to a smoking ruin. People were cynical about bitcoin, I told Blair. And they were right. “Yeah,” he replied, dismissively. “But you know, there were a thousand people who were engaged in the Industrial Revolution and turned out to be fraudsters or shysters, or their inventions didn’t work, or the thing broke. When the Wright Brothers were flying the first planes, they crashed them all.” The key questions about AI, he told me, are: “In the broad sweep, is it going to improve things? And will it make a big difference? And I think it will.” His vision of AI is one that frees humans to do the things only humans can do, that saves governments from the trap of low growth and high taxes, that remakes the state to be as forward-looking as the tech giants that dominate the stock market. That vision is optimistic, unburdened by too much doubt and introspection, and biased toward action: in other words, extremely Blairite.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Inev

AI is inevitable and will benefit us.

Lundqvist 23 [Sonny Lundqvist, Digital Credential: Machine Learning On-Device for Apple and Android Devices completed @ Malmö University of Applied Sciences, decade of experience in the Salesforce Marketing Cloud domain, solution architect @ Fluido, a leading Salesforce partner in Nordics, AI Ambassador; “Embracing AI: the inevitable fusion of human ingenuity and artificial intelligence,” 11/17/23, Fluido; https://www.fluidogroup.com/blog/embracing-ai-the-inevitable-fusion-of-human-ingenuity-and-artificial-intelligence/]

In the ever-evolving landscape of technology, artificial intelligence (AI) stands as a beacon of transformative power, much like fire, steam, and electricity did in their respective eras. But as we stand on this precipice of change, a crucial understanding must be embraced: AI is not a harbinger of human obsolescence but a tool for amplifying human potential. This paradigm shift, where humans equipped with AI outpace those without, is not just a technological revolution; it's a redefinition of human capability and productivity.

The Synergy of Human and AI

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Inev

Developments in AI are inevitable and we should embrace it.

Taylor 23 [Josh Taylor, Masters in Journalism, BA in Computer Science, Guardian Australia Journalist; “Rise of artificial intelligence is inevitable but should not be feared, ‘father of AI’ says,” 5/26/23, The Guardian; https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/07/rise-of-artificial-intelligence-is-inevitable-but-should-not-be-feared-father-of-ai-says]

The man once described as the father of artificial intelligence is breaking ranks with many of his contemporaries who are fearful of the AI arms race, saying what is coming is inevitable and we should learn to embrace it.

Prof Jürgen Schmidhuber’s work on neural networks in the 1990s was developed into language-processing models that went on to be used in technologies such as Google Translate and Apple’s Siri. The New York Times in 2016 said when AI matures it might call Schmidhuber “Dad”.

2024 Michigan Evidence
AI (General) › UQ---Inev

Spread of AI is inevitable

Betsy Reed 23, 5-6-2023, Betsy Reed is an editor at the Guardian "Rise of artificial intelligence is inevitable but should not be feared, ‘father of AI’ says", https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/may/07/rise-of-artificial-intelligence-is-inevitable-but-should-not-be-feared-father-of-ai-says

The man once described as the father of artificial intelligence is breaking ranks with many of his contemporaries who are fearful of the AI arms race, saying what is coming is inevitable and we should learn to embrace it.

Prof Jürgen Schmidhuber’s work on neural networks in the 1990s was developed into language-processing models that went on to be used in technologies such as Google Translate and Apple’s Siri. The New York Times in 2016 said when AI matures it might call Schmidhuber “Dad”.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---Trade

Extinction

Nouriel Roubini 17, Professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and Chairman of Roubini Macro Associates, was Senior Economist for International Affairs in the White House's Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration, 1/2/17, ““America First” and Global Conflict Next”, Project Syndicate,

Trump, however, may pursue populist, anti-globalization, and protectionist policies that hinder trade and restrict the movement of labor and capital. And he has cast doubt on existing US security guarantees by suggesting that he will force America’s allies to pay for more of their own defense. If Trump is serious about putting “America first,” his administration will shift US geopolitical strategy toward isolationism and unilateralism, pursuing only the national interests of the homeland.

When the US pursued similar policies in the 1920s and 1930s, it helped sow the seeds of World War II. Protectionism – starting with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which affected thousands of imported goods – triggered retaliatory trade and currency wars that worsened the Great Depression. More important, American isolationism – based on a false belief that the US was safely protected by two oceans – allowed Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan to wage aggressive war and threaten the entire world. With the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the US was finally forced to take its head out of the sand.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---Trade

Innovation sinks trade

Sarah Lund and Bughin 19---Susan Lund is the leader of the McKinsey Global Institute. Jacques Bughin is a senior partner at McKinsey and a director of the McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey’s business and economics research arm. Next-generation technologies and the future of trade”, Vox EU CEPR, 4-10-2019, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/next-generation-technologies-and-future-trade)

Automation and additive manufacturing change production processes and the relative importance of inputs, and may reduce goods trade

The diffusion of automation and artificial intelligence technologies suggests that multiple industries will experience a profound shift in the importance of capital versus labour (McKinsey Global Institute 2017). The growing adoption of automation and AI in manufacturing makes labour costs less important and other factors – such as proximity to consumer markets, access to resources, workforce skills, and infrastructure quality – more important.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---Environment

Destroys the biosphere

Ari Joury, 24 – Ari is a PhD and spent years modelling climate risks[Ari Joury, "Technological innovation alone will not create a more sustainable world," No Publication, 1-26-2024, https://wangari.substack.com/p/technological-innovation-alone-will, accessed 7-19-2024]rice

The result is the world that we are living in: We live in unprecedented comfort, but we are borrowing much of that comfort from the future. Humanity has crossed six out of nine planetary boundaries. To name a few, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have ever been in the known history of the planet, the biosphere is being disrupted by genetic and functional variants, and land-system changes are threatening entire ecosystems. Humanity is close to crossing the seventh boundary, too, by rendering the oceans too acidic for healthy marine life.

Technology has helped use resources to build valuable goods, but we have not been able to replace and restore these resources as quickly as we produce goods. Our consumption of goods also leads to pollution in many forms, further degrading natural resources that we all depend on.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---Econ/Health

*Innovation harms econ growth---empirically proven across multiple countries.

Dempere et al. 23 [Juan Dempere, ; Muhammad Qamar, ; Hesham Allam, ; Sabir Malik, ; “The Impact of Innovation on Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, and Self-Employment: A Global Perspective,” 7/5/23, Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI); https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/7/182]

The academic literature studying the relationship between innovation and economic growth is extensive. Some articles have focused on the positive relationships between economic and innovation-related dimensions at the firm level, such as between innovation and firm productivity and exports (Cassiman et al. 2010) and between research and development (R&D) and productivity (Tsai and Wang 2004; Zhang et al. 2012). Other articles have focused on the positive relationship between economic growth and innovation at the country level (Castellacci and Natera 2016).

However, not all previous studies have found a positive and significant relationship between innovation and economic growth. For example, Afzal and Gauhar (2020) studied the relationship between financial innovation and economic growth among 164 countries from 1990 to 2017 and found that these variables are negatively and significantly associated. Likewise, Mohamed et al. (2021) found a significant, negative relationship between innovation and long-term Egyptian economic growth. In the same way, Freel and Robson (2004) studied the impacts of business innovation activities and company growth performance in Scotland and Northern England. They found a short-term, negative relationship between product innovation and sales growth or productivity. Correspondingly, Coad et al. (2021) also suggested innovation’s adverse economic impact through excessive patent protection and monopoly powers, harming economic progress and consumer welfare by boosting social inequality.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---Econ/Health

Innovation is harmful to health, and the economy.

Alex Coad et al, 20 -- [Alex Coad, "Editorial: the dark side of innovation," Taylor & Francis, 9-15-2020, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13662716.2020.1818555, accessed 7-18-2024]rice

While large part of the innovation literature is focused on the private returns from innovation, its impact often goes beyond the producer-consumer relationship, affecting the public sphere. The dichotomy between private and social benefits (costs) may prove useful not only to understand the underinvestment in R&D, but also to understand the overinvestment in specific technologies.

Some public health dangers are not known until long after the innovation’s introduction; some were known by firms, some of whom may try to mislead consumers and regulators. Sometimes, dangers are common knowledge, although harmful products continue to be used (e.g. every year people start smoking despite knowing that it is harmful). Other problems are more subtle: investment in expensive high-tech medicine has an opportunity cost that may reduce investment in upstream improvements in public health that have a bigger positive impact…

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---General

Innovation means the development of civilization-destroying technologies.

Ladish 20 [Jeffrey Ladish, director of Palisade Research, B.A. in Evolutionary Biology and Human Systems; “Absent coordination, future technology will cause human extinction,” 2/3/20; https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awyDhCjptukxKdwih/absent-coordination-future-technology-will-cause-human]

Nick Bostrom, of the Future of Humanity Institute, uses an evocative metaphor to describe the future of humanity’s technological development:

One way of looking at human creativity is as a process of pulling balls out of a giant urn. The balls represent possible ideas, discoveries, technological inventions. Over the course of history, we have extracted a great many balls — mostly white (beneficial) but also various shades of grey (moderately harmful ones and mixed blessings).

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---General

Leads to existential threats---ecosystem collapse, democracy decline, inequality, etc.

Coad et al. 20 [Alex Coad, editor at the journals ‘Research Policy’ and ‘Small Business Economics,’ Ph.D. Economics; Paul Nightingale, Professor Of Strategy (SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit), Ph.D. changing technology of technical change, MSc Innovation Management, BSc Chemistry; Jack Stilgoe, lecturer in the Department of Science and Technology Studies, Ph.D; Antonio Vezzani, Associate Professor, PhD in Economics, MSc. Economics and Institutions, B.A. in Political Science; “Editorial: the dark side of innovation,” 9/15/20, Routledge; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13662716.2020.1818555]

While large part of the innovation literature is focused on the private returns from innovation, its impact often goes beyond the producer-consumer relationship, affecting the public sphere. The dichotomy between private and social benefits (costs) may prove useful not only to understand the underinvestment in R&D, but also to understand the overinvestment in specific technologies.

Some public health dangers are not known until long after the innovation’s introduction; some were known by firms, some of whom may try to mislead consumers and regulators. Sometimes, dangers are common knowledge, although harmful products continue to be used (e.g. every year people start smoking despite knowing that it is harmful). Other problems are more subtle: investment in expensive high-tech medicine has an opportunity cost that may reduce investment in upstream improvements in public health that have a bigger positive impact.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Innovation Bad › Innovation Bad---General

Innovation is dangerous---it has a litany of risks with various examples.

Coad et al. 20 [Alex Coad, editor at the journals ‘Research Policy’ and ‘Small Business Economics,’ Ph.D. Economics; Paul Nightingale, Professor Of Strategy (SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit), Ph.D. changing technology of technical change, MSc Innovation Management, BSc Chemistry; Jack Stilgoe, lecturer in the Department of Science and Technology Studies, Ph.D; Antonio Vezzani, Associate Professor, PhD in Economics, MSc. Economics and Institutions, B.A. in Political Science; “Editorial: the dark side of innovation,” 9/15/20, Routledge; https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13662716.2020.1818555]

In recent years, policymakers have seemingly neglected that innovation has a direction, and usually take it for granted that ‘innovation is good’ and hence, ‘more innovation is better’. For example, when they directly compare the performance of countries using indicators such as R&D spending or patenting, more is assumed to be better. Understanding the downsides of innovation, and how those downsides are distributed, might therefore help inform better policy. This editorial, and the special issue, seeks to provide a bit more balance by giving space to suggestions that innovation is not always a force for good.

To do so, we discuss some dimensions we deem useful to conceptualise the link between innovation and its possible harmful effects (section 2); we present a (non-exhaustive) list of conceptually distinct types of harms (section 3); we then discuss three broad unanswered questions from a more practical to a more theoretical perspective (section 4) and, finally; we conclude presenting the papers of this special issue.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Link---1NC

Patents essential to military innovation

Charles Figer 20, 11-17-2020, "Patents provide benefits to AFMC inventors, warfighters", Air Force Materiel Command, https://www.afmc.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2417116/patents-provide-benefits-to-afmc-inventors-warfighters/

Instead, intellectual property, in the form of patents, is an intangible product of the work of scientists and engineers that has unseen benefits throughout the Air Force Materiel Command and the entire Department of Defense.

In 2020 alone, the Air Force filed more than 100 patent applications and received more than 80 issued patents.

2024 Michigan Evidence
Innovation (General) › Link---1NC

Stringent patent laws damaged US tech leadership

Cecilia Rilkap and Bengt-Ake Lundvall 21, 12-10-2021, Lundvall is an emeritus professor in economics at the Department of Business and Management at Aalborg University. Rikrap is a Head of Research and Associate Professor in Economics at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP). "AI Policies and Politics in China and the US Between Techno-Globalism and Techno-Nationalism", SpringerLink, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-89443-6_7

There is little doubt that the porousness of national borders, allowing knowledge to flow between countries, has been one important factor behind major technological developments. However, this relative openness has not served all countries equally well. Companies in lead countries have accumulated IPRs and their states have joined forces to impose rules for latecomer countries that limit their freedom to engage in catching up strategies. Since the mid-1990s, a stringent international IPRs regime was established through the TRIPS agreement and other bilateral trade agreements that limited access to knowledge as well as reverse engineering learning (Drahos, 1995; Dreyfuss & Frankel, 2014). Nelson and Ostry (1993) saw the US transnational companies as moving the world towards techno-globalism. Tech giants may be a case in point. With a strong focus on IPRs and tech giants harvesting knowledge and data from abroad, the US imports knowledge and data as well as intellectual rents. Hosting the enterprise vanguards of both the first and the second phase of the ICT revolution has cemented its role as the world’s technology leader. This is fundamental for its geopolitical hegemony since its control of the dollar as world currency and its worldwide military presence in part rely on its technological lead (Schwartz, 2019). Therefore, it is not surprising that the US, when confronted with a serious contender in a strategic technology, steps back from the techno-globalism implicit in the Washington Consensus and engages in radical forms of techno-nationalism. As we demonstrated in earlier chapters, tech giants are specialized in digital services and, through their privileged access to data, they established themselves as AI world leaders. While they establish innovation networks with scholars, knowledge institutions and enterprises around the world, they do so to strengthen their technological dominance. Through their harvesting of data and knowledge in host countries, they absorb financial wealth as well as technological capabilities that are in part entered to their own state.