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Ever since Donald J. Trump won the presidency, Democrats have stuck to a winning electoral playbook: From congressional races to presidential ones, they’ve nominated well-liked, moderate candidates who could appeal to nearly any voter who disliked Mr. Trump and his allies.

It hasn’t always been easy for Democrats to follow this playbook. But when the stakes have been highest, they’ve managed to do so — from preventing the nomination of Bernie Sanders by elevating Joe Biden four years ago, to pushing Mr. Biden to abandon his re-election campaign.

Donald Trump has threatened to leave NATO so many times — or has appeared to, anyway — that for many of his critics, it’s a question of when, not whether, he’d ditch the 75-year-old alliance if he’s reelected president in November. In truth, Trump would be unlikely to quit NATO outright, according to interviews with former Trump national security officials and defense experts who are likely to serve in a second Trump term. But even if he doesn’t formally leave the organization, that doesn’t mean NATO would survive a second Trump term intact. In return for continued U.S. participation, Trump would not only expect that European countries drastically increase their spending on NATO — his main complaint when he was president — but also undertake what one defense expert familiar with the thinking inside Trump’s national-security advisory circle, Dan Caldwell, describes as a “radical reorientation” of NATO. “We don’t really have a choice anymore,” Caldwell told POLITICO Magazine, citing rising U.S. debt, flagging military recruiting, and a defense industrial base that can’t keep up with the challenge from both Russia and China. U.S. military personnel raise a flag. U.S. troops are deployed to Romania along with forces from other NATO member states as the alliance looks to boost security on its southeastern flank amid Russia's war in Ukraine. | Andreea Alexandru/AP Neither Trump nor his campaign has yet named a new national security team or openly embraced a new agenda for NATO. The campaign did not respond to several requests for comment for this article. But the former officials and experts who spoke for this article — some on the record and some on condition of anonymity — are engaged in an ongoing debate within Trump world over how hard to push the Europeans toward a security architecture more to Trump’s liking. According to these officials, the U.S. would keep its nuclear umbrella over Europe during a second Trump term by maintaining its airpower and bases in Germany, England and Turkey, and its naval forces as well. Meanwhile, the bulk of infantry, armor, logistics and artillery would ultimately pass from American to European hands. Parts of this plan were floated in an article published in February 2023 by the Trump-affiliated Center for Renewing America, but in the months since, there’s been an emerging and more detailed consensus among Trump supporters on an outline of a new concept for NATO. President Joe Biden and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg hold a meeting. Meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington earlier this month, outgoing NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (left) announced that 23 of the 31 non-U.S. NATO members will now make the alliance’s 2 percent target. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images The shift they envision would involve “significantly and substantially downsizing America’s security role — stepping back instead of being the primary provider of combat power in Europe, somebody who provides support only in times of crisis,” said Caldwell, who recently served as a senior advisor to Russell Vought, the former senior Trump administration official who in May was named policy director for the Republican National Convention and who is expected to play a senior role in a second Trump administration. Vought is also president of the CRA.

London — With six months to go until the presidential election, America's NATO allies are planning to boost their defense spending ahead of the potential disruption of a second Donald Trump presidency.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is preparing a funding plan to try to insulate the 75-year-old military partnership from any changing political realities that might affect the alliance, according to Oana Lungescu, who until last year was the longtime lead NATO spokesperson for Stoltenberg.

Donald Trump would yank the United States out of the Paris climate accord for the second time if he wins the presidency again in November, a campaign spokesperson told POLITICO Friday.

The statement comes after years of conservatives laying the groundwork for Trump to withdraw from the global agreement intended to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gases causing climate change. Their efforts include drafting executive orders for Trump to quickly sign if he regains the White House, a lawyer familiar with the process told POLITICO.

During Trump's first term, his administration rolled back dozens of environmental protections, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution. Trump pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement on climate change; tried to weaken regulations on power plant emissions; opened part of Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas development; and eased a rule that was designed to reduce polluted wastewater from coal plants.

If Trump’s reelected, environmental groups will almost certainly file lawsuits challenging the administration’s actions. Some of those cases could end up before the U.S. Supreme Court, which Trump reshaped in his first term to create a 6 to 3 conservative supermajority.

In the first week of a new Trump administration, President Joe Biden’s climate wins would get put through the shredder.

First to go could be the executive orders, including the one protecting 13 million acres in Alaska from oil drilling and another aiming to dramatically increase the number of EVs on the road.

A second presidential term for former President Donald Trump could reignite global inflation as his America-first policies drive up costs across the world, analysts warned.

The high tariff, low tax economic agenda, which defined Trump’s first term — and is inflationary in its own right — would prove even more damaging this time around, the analysts said, as the “inflation mindset” persists.

Like many reporters, I’ve been operating in Casaubon mode for much of the past eight years, searching for the key to Donald Trump’s mythologies. No single explanation of Trump is fully satisfactory, although Atlantic staff writer Adam Serwer came closest when he observed that the cruelty is the point. Another person who helped me unscramble the mystery of Trump was his son-in-law Jared Kushner. Early in the Trump presidency, I had lunch with Kushner in his White House office. We were meant to be discussing Middle East peace (more on that another time), but I was particularly curious to hear Kushner talk about his father-in-law’s behavior. I was not inured then—and am not inured even now—to the many rococo manifestations of Trump’s defective character. One of the first moments of real shock for me came in the summer of 2015, when Trump, then an implausible candidate for the Republican presidential nomination, said of Senator John McCain, “He’s not a war hero … I like people who weren’t captured, okay?”

I did not understand how so many ostensibly patriotic voters could subsequently embrace Trump, but mainly I couldn’t understand his soul sickness: How does a person come to such a rotten, depraved thought?

Many presidential candidates get cozy with Hollywood. But Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is in a category all by herself where entertainment industry relationships are concerned.

From her friendships with power players like Disney’s Dana Walden and CAA’s Bryan Lourd, to her connections to a network of Black creatives like Beyoncé, Octavia Spencer and producer Reggie Hudlin and his wife Chrisette, to common cause with advocates for LGBTQ rights and climate protection, Harris is practically without peer in being able to mobilize an army of cultural influence to propel forward her historic bid for the presidency.

Vice President Harris raised $81 million in the first 24 hours after President Biden stepped aside and endorsed her as the Democratic nominee, her campaign said, touting it as the highest 24-hour fundraising haul of any presidential candidate in history.

“The historic outpouring of support for Vice President Harris represents exactly the kind of grassroots energy and enthusiasm that wins elections,” campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz said in a statement. “Already, we are seeing a broad and diverse coalition come together to support our critical work of talking to the voters that will decide this election.”

President Joe Biden forfeited his reelection bid, now making former President Donald Trump the oldest presidential nominee of a major political party, and now Democrats expect Vice President Kamala Harris to attack his age.

Prior to Biden dropping out, his campaign team worked to sooth voters’ concerns that the 81-year-old president was too old, too frail, and too weak to run the country for another four years.

In an unofficial video doing the rounds on TikTok, a beaming Kamala Harris jives through the street with school children decked out in a glittery LGBT pride jacket while holding an umbrella. The clip then cuts to images of Donald Trump with notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein — all set to a diss track by rapper Kendrick Lamar.

In the four days since Harris became the lead candidate to replace Joe Biden as Democratic presidential nominee, the internet has exploded with memes of the US vice-president giggling, dancing and telling zany stories.

For all of the enthusiasm and cash Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign is generating for Democrats, her true tests are about to begin.

Why it matters: To beat Donald Trump, Harris will have to overcome President Biden's polling deficits — and questions about how well she'll fare with working-class voters in the crucial "Blue Wall" swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Of all the reasons Kamala Harris is better equipped than Joe Biden to defeat Donald Trump in November—her relative youth, the fact that she’s a former prosecutor challenging a convicted felon—her biggest advantage may be her record on abortion. Harris served as the Biden administration’s de facto advocate for reproductive rights; it is her voice, not Biden’s, that’s been loudest in objecting to abortion bans and to curtail and. According to the , she is the vice president to have paid an official visit to an abortion clinic. As a senator, she famously grilled the Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh on abortion, him, “Can you think of any laws that give the government the power to make decisions about the male body?” (He could not.) As California’s attorney general, Harris the anti-abortion activists who pretended to be researchers from a biologics company and illegally recorded videos that were edited to suggest that Planned Parenthood sold fetal parts. (After Harris left the AG’s office for the Senate, her brought criminal charges, and Planned Parenthood eventually more than $2 million in damages from a lawsuit against the activists.) It also doesn’t hurt that Harris is running against a notorious misogynist who selected for his running mate a man who said as recently as 2022 that he would support a nationwide abortion ban. In the tiny sliver of time in which she’s been the potential presidential nominee, Harris has already reenergized Democratic voters, especially abortion-rights advocates. Laudatory press statements have been issued by abortion-rights groups including (formerly NARAL) and EMILY’s List, which to donate millions to her campaign. If Harris is the nominee, Democrats will have the opportunity to make reproductive choice the leading issue of the 2024 campaign. And that might be enough to win. ​​Since the Supreme Court, stacked with Trump-appointed justices, issued its ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in 2022, Americans’ for abortion rights has soared to the highest levels since Gallup began measuring abortion attitudes, in 1995. Over the past two years, , including solidly red ones, have asked their citizens to vote directly on laws either expanding or constricting abortion rights, and every single time, abortion rights have won. Only about that abortion should be illegal in all circumstances—about as many as Jesus will return to Earth in their lifetime. So many voters are in favor of at least some abortion rights that Republican lawmakers across several states are to make it more difficult or even impossible for citizens to vote directly on ballot initiatives and constitutional amendments, even as they continue to push unpopular abortion bans through legislatures and the courts. Abortion bans have irrevocably altered the lives of untold American women, but they’ve been political gifts to Democrats—one of the few advantages the party has this year. Voters have clearly expressed their displeasure with the current state of the economy, the border, and public safety, all of which have dragged down Biden’s approval ratings. from early July (before Biden dropped out) showed that Trump had more voters’ trust on the border, the economy, the war between Israel and Hamas, and crime and safety. But abortion was the issue for which Trump received the least trust, and Biden the most. And that’s polling on Joe Biden, a man who has been at best uncomfortable with and at worst hostile to abortion rights for most of his career. As a young senator, he that the Supreme Court had gone too far in Roe v. Wade. In the 1990s, he boasted about voting some against federal funding of abortions; in 2006, he said, “I do not view abortion as a choice and a right.” By 2012, Biden was emphasizing his support for a woman’s right to choose. As Barack Obama’s running mate, he maintained his belief that life begins at conception but said, “I just refuse to impose that on others.” And after the Supreme Court overturned Roe during his presidency, he called on Congress to codify that right. But he still takes pains to avoid even uttering the word abortion, in his State of the Union address despite its inclusion in the prewritten text. His June 27 debate performance reached its nadir when he was asked an easy-win abortion question and responded by bungling the premise of Roe, struggling to rebuke a Trump fantasy about abortions “even after birth” (which do not exist), and saying that “the deal” with abortion was at least partly about “young women who are being raped by their in-laws.” When Florida banned abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, Biden gave a sprawling speech in Tampa in which he used the word abortion just twice and quickly moved on to other issues, according to a analysis. When Harris appeared in Jacksonville for a Biden-campaign event the next week, she spoke almost exclusively about reproductive rights, and said abortion 15 times. Trump, like Biden, has proved malleable in his abortion politics, from “I’m very pro-choice” in 1999 to “I am pro-life” in 2011. In 2016, he said, “There has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions if the procedure ever became illegal (then quickly reversed his position), and he has more recently “the most pro-life president in American history” and that he “was able to kill Roe v. Wade.” But this year, public opinion has swung so hard against abortion restrictions that even Trump, who said in 2016 he was sure that voters would look the other way if he , pushed his party to scale back its stated opposition to abortion in its 2024 platform. Trump didn’t mention abortion once during a record-length convention speech in which he found time to pontificate on Hannibal Lecter and a potential RNC in Venezuela. That say-nothing strategy might have worked if the contest had remained between Trump and Biden. But instead, Harris seems poised for the nomination, and Trump picked a staunchly anti-abortion running mate in J. D. Vance. Although he started trying to soften his stance when he became Trump’s VP pick, Vance previously voiced support for a on abortion (though he acknowledged that it was unlikely in the current political climate) and for that outlaw the procedure without exceptions for rape or incest. Against these candidates, and with a single-issue advantage like this, talking about abortion nonstop is in Democrats’ best interests. Abortion is certainly not the only issue voters care about, or even the one they care about the most, so Harris would be remiss if she made it her campaign’s sole focus. Democrats have plenty of successes to tout from the Biden administration, including rescuing the post-COVID economy, investing big in infrastructure, and overseeing declining murder rates. But focusing on abortion and reproductive freedom offers Democrats a rare opportunity to pick up swing voters and turn out dedicated pro-abortion-rights Democrats. Forty-one percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, including more than a quarter of self-described conservative Republicans, say abortion should generally be legal, according to a conducted in April. In a Wall Street Journal from March, 39 percent of suburban women in swing states chose abortion as their most important issue—more than any other option. And because many people seem to see abortion of health, family, and personal freedom, the issue dovetails quite neatly with Democrats’ other (limited): health-care access and protecting democracy from the threat of autocracy during a second Trump term. A Democrat like Harris, who speaks forcefully and passionately about abortion rights, is an ideal foil for Trump and Vance. Her position is strong in a nation where anger over abortion bans remains vigorous. A candidate who can galvanize abortion-rights voters is exactly what Republicans fear and Democrats need. If Harris makes reproductive freedom a cornerstone of her campaign, she just may be the woman who finally breaks the presidential glass ceiling—and who keeps Democrats in the White House.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Joe Biden might not often use the word “abortion” when he talks about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, but Vice President Kamala Harris sure does. She’s also toured a Minnesota Planned Parenthood clinic where the procedure is performed and routinely links the fall of Roe to the larger issue of rising maternal mortality nationwide.

Now that Harris is running for president in place of Biden, Democrats and advocates for reproductive rights are hoping that her bluntness on abortion — coupled with the administration’s policies — will help sway voters to deliver them not just the White House but key congressional seats as well.

Vice President Kamala Harris begins a 103-day sprint for the presidency in a virtual tie with former President Donald J. Trump, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, as her fresh candidacy was quickly reuniting a Democratic Party that had been deeply fractured over President Biden.

Just days after the president abandoned his campaign under pressure from party leaders, the poll showed Democrats rallying behind Ms. Harris as the presumptive nominee, with only 14 percent saying they would prefer another option. An overwhelming 70 percent of Democratic voters said they wanted the party to speedily consolidate behind her rather than engage in a more competitive and drawn-out process.

Former President Donald Trump has a narrow edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five crucial swing states President Joe Biden won in 2020, according to new polls by Emerson College—results similar to national polling that shows Trump beating Harris, but by fewer points than he would Biden. KEY FACTS Michigan: Trump leads Harris by one point here (46% to 45%), with 9% of voters undecided, according to an Emerson College of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4) conducted July 22-23—a slight decline from Trump’s three-point lead against Biden in a July 15-16 Emerson . Wisconsin: Harris and Trump are tied here at 47%, with 5% undecided, according to Emerson’s poll of 845 registered voters (margin of error 3.3); Trump led Biden here by five points. Georgia: Trump is up by two points in the state (48% to 46%), with 7% undecided, in an Emerson poll of 800 registered voters (margin of error 3.4), after leading Biden by six points in the group’s previous poll. Arizona: Harris is down by five points (49% to 44%) among the 800 registered voters surveyed (margin of error 3.4), with 7% of voters undecided, while Trump led Biden here by seven points earlier this month. Pennsylvania: Trump leads by two (48% to 46%) in the latest survey of 850 voters (margin of error 3.3), compared to his five-point lead over Biden. WHAT TO WATCH FOR Several names on Harris’ reported could help her shore up votes in the crucial swing states. Voters are partial to possible contenders who currently represent their states, the Emerson poll found. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters prefer their senator, Mark Kelly, 57% of Democrats in Pennsylvania prefer Gov. Josh Shapiro, and 36% of Michigan Democrats surveyed prefer Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has said she wouldn’t accept an offer for the No. 2 spot. None of the possible picks Emerson asked about received more than about 20% support among Democrats in Wisconsin and Georgia, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, in addition to Kelly, Shapiro and Whitmer.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a neck-and-neck contest nearly 100 days before the election, with the latest poll showing Harris gaining five points on Trump compared to President Joe Biden’s standing in the wake of his consequential June 27 debate against Trump. KEY FACTS A poll of 1,142 voters conducted July 22-24 shows Trump up by one point, 48% to 47%, among likely voters and up two points, 48% to 46%, among registered voters—the latest survey showing Harris making a dent in Trump’s lead over Biden, who trailed Trump by six points in the groups’ early July survey. Harris and Trump are tied at 42% among registered voters in a six-way matchup with third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%) on the ballot, according to the Times/Siena survey. Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they were Biden, the Times/Siena survey found, with nearly 80% of voters who lean Democrat saying they would like Harris to be the nominee, compared to 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago. Two polls taken since Biden dropped out show Harris leading: Morning Consult’s weekly , conducted July 22-24 among 11,297 registered voters, shows her with 46% support, compared to Trump’s 45%, while she is up 44% to 42% over Trump in a conducted Monday and Tuesday. Four other polls show Trump winning: he leads Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in another poll; by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist ; and by three points, 44% to 41%, in an conducted Sunday-Tuesday that also found Kennedy with 5% support. Polls consistently show Harris outperforms Biden—Ipsos and Reuters’ previous poll taken July 15-16 found Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll found Trump led by one point—though it’s unclear how polls taken when Harris was still only a hypothetical candidate will differ from those taken after she became the likely nominee. The CNN/SSRS survey and Morning Consult polls also found Harris performs better than Biden against Trump—Biden trailed Trump by six points in Morning Consult surveys taken before he exited the race and by six points in CNN/SSRS surveys taken in April and June. In a stark contrast with sentiment surrounding Biden’s mental fitness, 56% of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris was “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% for Biden.

July 23 (Reuters) - Vice President Kamala Harris opened up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign and passed the torch to her, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

That compares with a marginal two-point deficit Biden faced against Trump in last week's poll before his Sunday exit from the race.

The odds of Vice President Kamala Harris being elected as president in November improved noticeably over the past 24 hours according to a number of leading bookmakers, following the publication of a poll putting her two points ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in a straight matchup.

On Tuesday morning, betting companies Bet365 and William Hill were offering odds of 7/4 (36.4 percent) on Harris being elected to the White House this year, but this has since been cut to 6/4 (40 percent) for the former and 11/8 (42.1 percent) for the latter as of 5 a.m. ET on Wednesday. Over the same period, the odds of Harris winning in November went from 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 11/8 (42.1 percent) according to Sky Bet, another leading bookmaker.