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Haydn, “Collapse, Recovery, and Existential Risk,” in How Worlds Collapse: What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future, Routledge, 2023

A world dominated by totalitarian states would be more incompetent, more war-prone, less cooperative, and more inhibitive of progress than one dominated by democratic states. Our current world is not particularly competent, peaceful, cooperative, or progressive—a totalitarian-dominated world would be worse. It would increase the risk of another collapse and extinction and could shape the future toward less desirable trajectories (Beckstead, 2013).

(David, 2-22-24, The Gaurdian, “Adam Kinzinger: second Trump term could be ‘devastating for world order’”, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/22/adam-kinzinger-trump-interview-republicans)

A second Donald Trump presidency could spell the end of democracy in America and prove “devastating for the world order”, Adam Kinzinger, a Republican former congressman, has warned in an interview with the Guardian.

(Ben, 1-2-24, MSNBC, “If you thought the stakes for 2024 were already terrifying, we have some bad news”, https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/trump-2024-presidency-climate-change-rcna131928

American democracy is at stake in 2024 — and so is the fate of the Earth. Time is quickly running out on cutting greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to avert catastrophic climate change. If a Republican such as Donald Trump wins the presidency, the loss of American leadership on climate change in the crucial second half of this decade would ensure that the world blows past the threshold of calamity.

(Alex and Andrew Restuccia, “Trump Foreign Policy 2.0: Fewer Allies, Less Trade, More Loyalists,” Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-foreign-policy-2-0-fewer-allies-less-trade-more-loyalists-ac2429d0)

More White House loyalists

(Max, 1-31-24, Washington Post, "Opinion: If Trump wins, he will destroy the American-led world order”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/01/31/isolationism-trump-president-second-term/)

It has become a cliché to say that every election is the most important of our lifetimes, but the looming contest between President Biden and former president Donald Trump really is. This will be a referendum not only on the future of American democracy but also on the future of America’s role in the world.

(Peter, 2-19-2024, “The Real Challenge of Trump 2.0,” Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-challenge-trump-20)

What has changed is that the members of a new Trump administration will be far less likely to restrain his worst impulses. In Trump’s first term, many of the most important members of his national security team, as well as Republican allies on Capitol Hill, held more traditional Republican views. When Trump expressed a desire to go in a different direction, they had access and clout to explain why that might be a bad idea, and they often persuaded him. This is what played out, for example, in the Afghanistan strategy review of 2017. Just as important, for the many issues on which Trump simply did not engage, his traditional appointees were able to conduct a normal policy below his radar, as was the case with the 2018 National Defense Strategy. Finally, in the few areas where slow-rolling and end-running and other normal bureaucratic gimmicks were used to thwart a determined Trumpian policy flourish, the paucity of true-believing MAGA warriors at every level of the bureaucracy made it difficult for Trump to have his whims fulfilled. It is far from clear that there will be such guardrails this time around.

Derek, 1-23-24, POLITICO, "Poll: AI is looking more partisan”,

One of the nice things about covering the frontier of technology — large language models, quantum, virtual worlds — is that they’re decidedly less partisan than most policy issues. Sure, there might be disagreements, but these topics largely lack the clear battle lines, deep trenches or scorched-earth center of subjects like health care or climate change.

(Roehrenbeck, Mark Brennan, Ches Garrison, Telha Arshad, Ryan Thompson, 2024, Hogan Lovells, “Technology policy’s next big challenge: Divergent approaches to regulating AI”, https://www.engage.hoganlovells.com/knowledgeservices/news/technology-policys-next-big-challenge-divergent-approaches-to-regulating-ai)

AI is one of the current “shiny objects” in Congress, raising the attention of many Members of Congress who see the regulation of AI as a potentially bipartisan issue. In the first months of the new Congress, both the House and Senate have already held several hearings and introduced legislation on various aspects of AI regulation. Further, in April, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced an intensive effort to examine and understand AI technology and develop a legislative framework.

(Ryan, 8-9-23, AXIOS, “Exclusive poll: Americans distrust AI giants”, https://www.axios.com/2023/08/09/ai-voters-trust-government-regulation)

Majorities of American voters from both parties are worried about AI risks and support federal regulation to control those risks, according to new polling by a new AI-focused think tank, the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute, shared exclusively with Axios.

(Steven, 2-29-24, POLITICO, “What really worries people about AI”, https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2024/02/29/what-really-worries-people-about-ai-00144224)

Strong opinions on artificial intelligence are easy to come by these days — and not just from the techies paid to make it, or the policy wonks paid to regulate it.

(Lee Raine, Jason Husser, 5-15-24, “New survey finds most Americans expect AI abuses will affect 2024 election”, https://www.elon.edu/u/news/2024/05/15/ai-and-politics-survey/#:~:text=73%25%20of%20Americans%20believe%20it,people's%20impressions%20of%20the%20campaign.)

Seventy-eight percent of American adults expect abuses of artificial intelligence systems (AIs) that will affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, according to a new national survey by the Elon University Poll and the Imagining the Digital Future Center at Elon University.

(Leah, 9-17-20, POLITICO, “Poll: majority of Americans concerned about Big Tech’s economic, political power”, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/17/big-tech-economic-political-power-poll-417024)

About 65 percent of likely U.S. voters think the economic power held by tech companies like Amazon, Google, Facebook is a problem for the U.S. economy, according to a survey on antitrust and the tech industry to be released Thursday.

(Robin, 08-08-2021, The Washington Post, “Our patent system is broken. And it could be stifling innovation.”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/08/08/our-patent-system-is-broken-it-could-be-stifling-innovation

Patents are supposed to incentivize success. Across more than 200 years, they have emerged as an important tool for advancing society by encouraging inventors to create and share successful innovations, in exchange for the right to exclude others from the market for a limited period of time.

(Ingrid, 5-30-24, USA TODAY, “Trump is guilty. It won't matter at all this election.”,

President Joe Biden and the Democrats have gotten their wish and can now label former President Donald Trump as a convicted felon.

(Joe, 3-14-2024, UPI, “Long road to November vote: Short primary may not benefit voters,” https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2024/03/14/presidential-election-biden-trump-campaign/8431710431416/)

There is still a lot for Biden and Trump to do before Election Day.

(Susan, “Democrats Are Trailing Everywhere But at the Ballot Box,” US News, https://www.usnews.com/news/the-report/articles/2024-02-16/democrats-are-trailing-everywhere-but-at-the-ballot-box)

The media narrative is grim for president Joe Biden and his fellow Democrats: Biden's too old and his mental acuity is questionable, sayeth the pundits and the polls. Democratic base voters, particularly Black voters, are disenchanted with the president, leading a generally cranky Democratic rank-and-file to stay home this November.

(Nicholas, 11-16-2023, "Ignore the Polls and Pundits—Biden Will Win Reelection," Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/ignore-polls-punditsbiden-will-win-reelection-opinion-1844144)

The 2024 presidential election is just under a year out and it looks almost certain that, despite the fact that the supermajority of voters in both parties do not want it, we will be getting a rematch of the 2020 election. Poll after poll indicate this will be a very tight race, one where former President Donald Trump is often favored to win a second, nonconsecutive, term. So too are political pundits routinely calling President Joe Biden a weak incumbent, in danger of losing to his once and future foe. I would however take a contrarian view of the state of the race, issuing a call to ignore the polls and the pundits because Biden is cruising to reelection.

(Nagourney and Adam, 4-3-2024, New York Times, “Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.”, https://archive.ph/xIFJG#selection-503.0-506.0)

These days, Mr. Rosenberg, 60, a Democratic strategist and consultant who dates his first involvement in presidential campaigns to Michael Dukakis, the Democratic presidential candidate in 1988, is again pushing back against the polls and punditry and the Democratic doom and gloom. This time, he is predicting that President Biden will defeat Donald J. Trump in November.

(Justin, 6-11-24, "Who will win the 2024 presidential election?”, )

Who do the polls say will win the election?

(Nia-Malika, April 4, 2024, Bloomberg, “Anti-Trumpers Must Go Biden or Bust”, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-04/anti-trump-republicans-who-care-about-the-country-must-support-biden)

In the handful of swing states that will determine who wins the White House in November, there is a sizable number of anti-Trump Republicans who could vote for President Joe Biden. These are the kinds of voters who held Donald Trump to under 80% in the Wisconsin primary this week.