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[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

What history tells us: Harris critics also have plenty to point to when criticizing her electoral history. Her toughest race was her first race, for California attorney general, when she was the worst-performing statewide Democratic candidate on the ballot, winning her seat by about 1 percentage point.Read that again. She nearly lost to a Republican in California.

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

Reporters who have been covering her tenure point out that she seems most at home when she’s having more roundtable-style conversations, not necessarily in one-on-one interviews or while giving stump speeches.

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

That’s one edge the governors and senators who have been talked about as potential alternatives to Biden have: They wouldn’t carry the same baggage from the Biden administration. Harris will likely be seen as tied to Biden’s legacy, which stands as another reason to look elsewhere.

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

Critics of the KHive — as the online superfans of the vice president call themselves — and the VP argue that Harris is still really unpopular with the American public. They argue that the polls don’t actually show that much of an advantage for Harris in battleground states or with the popular vote; they point to her failed 2019 presidential campaign and her tepid vice presidential tenure as proof she’s not a particularly good candidate or politician and would likely run an uneven campaign.

[Liam, principal at Bracewell LLP and a former National Republican Senatorial Committee aide, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

After three weeks of gazing into the political abyss, Democrats have cycled through the stages of grief, accepted the inherent risk of a presidential shake-up, and euphorically embraced a candidate they would have feared leading their ticket just a month ago. The swap leaves them with four months to climb out of the deep hole Biden dug over the past three and a half years.

[Josh, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

I am honestly shocked at how the 2024 Democratic Party coup of President Joe Biden went down. The president has clearly been physically and mentally impaired for years now, as some of us repeatedly pointed out when it was less fashionable to do so. The much-discussed CNN presidential debate revealed precisely no new information for anyone paying even the slightest attention. And in a presidential election that will once again come down to the Rust Belt — and the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, in particular — it is bizarre for Democrats to swap out the man who talks ceaselessly about his hardscrabble Scranton upbringing for a left-wing Californian with more baggage than an Acela train.

[Helen, Politico Magazine, 7-21-24, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

‘It doesn’t matter whom the Democrats pick. They can’t stop what’s coming.’

[Christian Paz, Vox senior politics reporter, 7-21-24, Vox, “Does Kamala Harris give Democrats a better chance to win?,” https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/361750/biden-drop-out-harris-endorse-polls-against-trump-democrats-dnc, accessed: 7-21-24, ES]

What the data says: The major problem in comparing these Harris figures to Biden’s actual standing against Trump is that Biden’s numbers factor in every negative thing that he and his campaign have endured so far. Biden backers would point to the fact that opinions of Harris could still change for the worse as her theoretical campaign becomes not so theoretical anymore, and that her performing about as evenly as Biden against Trump is not that great of a sign when there is more uncertainty about how Harris would even campaign.

[Sara & Molly, 7-21-24, Forbes, “Here’s How Kamala Harris Performs In Polls Against Trump – As Biden Drops Out And Endorses Harris”, , accessed: 7-21-24, AngH]

A flurry of polls conducted in the wake of the June 27 presidential debate showed Harris performing roughly the same as Biden against Trump (who has been leading the president by a slim margin for months), and more recent polls after the attempted assassination of Trump show similar trends.

[Emily Brooks, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, Caroline Vakil, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, Julia Manchester, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, 7-21-24, “Republicans see opportunity in Harris presidential run after Biden exit,” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4785145-republicans-opportunity-harris-biden, 7-21-24, EP]

John Ullyot, a Republican operative who was a senior adviser to Trump’s 2016 campaign, said that both Biden and Harris are “very weak candidates.”

[Emily Brooks, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, Caroline Vakil, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, Julia Manchester, ‘The Hill’ staff writer, 7-21-24, “Republicans see opportunity in Harris presidential run after Biden exit,” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4785145-republicans-opportunity-harris-biden, 7-21-24, EP]

But the overwhelming consensus among Republicans is that if they can’t go up against Biden, Harris is the most favorable of the other options.

[Curt, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

Congratulations to the Democrats for couping an incumbent president. Donald Trump is now the de facto president. The only time, Grover Cleveland in 1892, that a former president has run in the general after leaving office: He won. Explosive powder has now been thrown into that mix. Anyone now sharing the stage with Trump will look much, much smaller.

[Joshua, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

History offers no road map to the next three months. We’re driving off road. But we know a few things.

(Nicholas, Katie, 7-22-24, New York Times, “How Kamala Harris Will Try to Put Trump on Defense”, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/22/us/politics/kamala-harris-trump-presidential-election.html)

From the beginning of President Biden’s ill-fated re-election bid, Democrats struggled to frame the race as a choice between two radically different visions, rather than a referendum on Mr. Biden’s age and abilities.

(Louie, 7-21-2024, USA Today, “Biden drops out. Democrats can finally focus on beating Trump”, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/07/21/biden-stand-down-2024-election/74483782007/)

President Joe Biden finally dropped out. The angst and guessing are finally over. Democrats can finally focus on beating Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and rallying voters who have been waiting.

[Ed, 7-21-24, Intelligencer, “Kamala Harris Needs to Move Fast for the Nomination, But Not Too Fast,” INTELLIGENCER, NEW YORK MAG, accessed July 21, 2024, , accessed 7-21-14]

It’s Kamala Harris’s moment.

[Robin, 7-21-24, Sacramento Bee, “Kamala Harris can beat Donald Trump and prove America is ready for a female president | Opinion,” THE SACRAMENTO BEE, accessed July 21, 2024, https://www.sacbee.com/opinion/article290253104.html

Harris’ sudden candidacy represents hope that is desperately needed among the centrist and left-leaning American electorate, many of whom could not imagine President Joe Biden beating Trump. Now that the party has listened to voters and Biden has been convinced to step aside, it’s time for us to line up behind Harris.

[Bill, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

Incumbent presidents who preside over growing economies with low unemployment and wages rising faster than inflation, and who have not sent American ground troops to fight and die in unpopular wars, consistently win reelection. Economic improvement fosters confidence that the existing administration can ably address any remaining problems. All evidence suggests that Joe Biden was on track to lose reelection largely because of concerns about cognitive decline. Now that Biden will not be the nominee, Democrats have a fantastic opportunity to return the race to traditional fundamentals.

[Michael Starr, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

Kamala Harris is ready to energize our base. She has the prosecutor’s grit and the charisma to go head-to-head with Trump. Young people, women and communities of color will see themselves in her fight. Don’t buy the tough talk from Trump’s camp. They know they’re in for a real battle. This is an entirely new race with an entirely new tone.

[Andra, 7-21-24, Politico Magazine, “15 Experts Predict What Biden’s Dropout Means for the 2024 Election”, , Accessed 7-21-24, AMH]

Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election removes one attack arrow from the Republican quiver. But regardless of whom the Democrats select as their nominee, they will need to craft a compelling, forward-looking message and respond deftly to the dissatisfaction among a significant segment of the electorate that made Biden vulnerable long before his disastrous debate performance on June 27. If they don’t, those who pushed Biden out of this race will probably still feel unsettled in a month or two.