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Prospects for a Saudi-Israel diplomatic breakthrough appear to have cooled lately amid Riyadh’s rapprochement with Tehran and domestic ferment in Israel. But a narrow focus on these obstacles misses deeper, more encouraging trend lines, including Saudi public receptivity to people-to-people contact already underway in business and sports. Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman has stirringly referred to Israel as a “potential ally,” and the transformative post-oil future he is mapping out for the kingdom offers the promise of bilateral cooperation in commerce, high-tech, and tourism, among other sectors. Notwithstanding Riyadh’s deal with Iran, the Saudis and Israelis still share a common threat in the Islamic Republic and a common interest to address it.

The key to a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement, writes Segal Executive Director Robert Satloff in this new Institute Policy Note, is the U.S. role. While cautioning that a “Sadat to Jerusalem” moment is unrealistic for Saudi Arabia and Israel in the near future, especially given competing priorities for Riyadh, he argues that President Biden could—if he so chooses—negotiate a historic three-way, win-win-win arrangement that not only establishes formal Saudi-Israel relations but also advances a range of important American interests.

The likelihood is growing that by the end of 2023, if not sooner, Saudi Arabia will agree to normalize relations with Israel, paving the way for most Arab and Muslim relations to establish and strengthen ties with Israel. It won’t happen without US mediation and guarantees, which the Biden administration is now contemplating after almost three years of treating Saudi Arabia as a pariah nation. What factors contributed to America’s change of heart? What will the US, the Saudis, and Israel gain from normalization? And is this all win-win for Israel, or does it have anything to lose?

1. Reversing China’s Momentum

Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel, a priority for Joe Biden's administration, was at the heart of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to Riyadh from June 6 to 8. The Americans have given themselves until the end of the year, before being caught up in the 2024 presidential campaign, to make progress on this issue, which is also a priority for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The monarchy, which is in return negotiating for increased military cooperation with Washington and support for its civilian nuclear program, is showing signs of opening up.

"It's quite clear that we believe that normalization [with Israel] is in the interest of the region, that it would bring significant benefits to all," said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Thursday. "But without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people, without addressing that challenge, any normalization will have limited benefits. And therefore, I think we should continue to focus on finding a pathway toward a two-state solution, on finding a pathway toward giving the Palestinians dignity and justice," added Farhan.

Given Israel’s fractious right-wing government and the Arab Sunni states’ rapprochement with Iran, “the dream of peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia should have been relegated to the realm of science fiction,” writes Ben Caspit. “Surprisingly, it remains real.”

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “dreams” of Israeli-Saudi normalization, a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Caspit. For Netanyahu, another historic star turn as statesman would be a reprieve from the agony of Israeli domestic politics. The country is bitterly divided over his right-wing government’s judicial reform program. There are few rewards for Israel’s longest serving prime minister in the unruly coalition politics, demonstrations in the streets and remonstrations from Washington over the controversial legislation.

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is “very optimistic” that Israel and Saudi Arabia will normalize relations before March 2024, he said in a briefing on Sunday.

“Israel is interested in advancing a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia,” Cohen said. “This is an attainable agreement…the Saudis are interested in it, as well.

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. spoke today with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to discuss a broad range of global and regional issues of mutual concern. The President underscored his iron-clad, unwavering commitment to Israel’s security and condemned recent acts of terror against Israeli citizens. The two consulted on our close coordination to counter Iran, including through regular and ongoing joint military exercises. They noted that U.S.-Israel partnership remains a cornerstone in preventing Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapon. The President stressed the need to take measures to maintain the viability of a two-state solution and improve the security situation in the West Bank. To that end, he welcomed Israel’s willingness to consider new steps to support Palestinian livelihoods, and recognized promising steps by the Palestinian Authority to reassert security control in Jenin and other areas of the West Bank. He expressed concern about continued settlement growth and called on all parties to refrain from further unilateral measures. The two leaders agreed to consult with regional partners with the aim of convening a meeting soon in the Aqaba/Sharm format as soon as possible. They also consulted on progress towards establishing a more integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Middle East, including through efforts to deepen and expand normalization with countries in the region and beyond. Finally, President Biden reiterated, in the context of the current debate in Israel about judicial reform, the need for the broadest possible consensus, and that shared democratic values have always been and must remain a hallmark of the U.S.-Israel relationship.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday reaffirmed the Biden administration’s commitment to normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia as he wrapped up his first solo visit to the Kingdom.

At a press conference in Riyadh, the top US diplomat said he discussed the matter of normalization in his meetings, “and we will continue to work at it and to advance it in the days, weeks and months ahead.”

Brett McGurk, President Biden’s senior Middle East adviser, arrived in Saudi Arabia this weekend for talks with Saudi officials that will focus on the administration's efforts to reach a normalization agreement between Israel and the kingdom as well as other issues, two U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: McGurk's trip, first reported by the NYT, is part of an effort by the White House to make a diplomatic push for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal in the next six to seven months before the presidential election campaign consumes President Biden’s agenda, as Axios reported last month.

For years, Michael Prado has provided bottled water to his neighbors in Sultana, a town of about 785 people in California’s Central Valley. That’s because most wells in town have been contaminated by runoff from agriculture, says Prado, who is president of the Sultana Community Services District. Only one well meets state standards for safe drinking water—he’s glad the town has it, but it’s not enough.

“We’ve been crossing our fingers and toes that the drought [wouldn’t] dry our well up. Due to the fact that we live in an agricultural area and this is a little community, we would be devastated,” he says. Prado worries that if the town’s remaining up-to-standard well dries up, even more residents will have to boil tap water before using it or rely on bottled water. “We are in dire need of a new well,” he says.

The clock is ticking for the farm bill as it is set to expire at the end of September. Farmers and ranchers aren’t the only ones with eyes on the clock either. Last week, the American Farm Bureau joined with a diverse group of agricultural, environmental, forestry, wildlife, nutrition and hunger advocates to launch the “Farm Bill for America’s Families: Sustaining Our Future” campaign. Together, we are calling for an effective 2023 farm bill this year, and we’re inviting others to join us. We know the farm bill matters for all Americans, and we cannot afford a delay. At Farm Bureau, we are committed to ensuring that the 2023 farm bill provides the tools and resources all farmers and ranchers need. Our advocacy work is already in full gear. It’s been all hands on deck, across state and national staff and grassroots members and leaders, in laying the groundwork for the next farm bill. And you better believe that we will be studying the new bill backwards and forwards to ensure it aligns with our grassroots policies. When we speak as the united Voice of Agriculture, we make a real difference. We also know that when we lock arms across agriculture and beyond, lawmakers take extra notice. Finding common ground with a diverse group of stakeholders is truly powerful in showing everyone how important the farm bill is for our nation. With 260 members of Congress who have never worked on a farm bill and 71% of adults saying they don’t know much, if anything, about the bill, now is the time to engage with consumers, leaders and lawmakers alike. We need all Americans to understand the broad impact the farm bill has—and to urge their members of Congress to pass an effective 2023 farm bill. That’s why Farm Bill for America’s Families is highlighting how the farm bill is critical to food security, job creation, conservation, risk management and addressing hunger.

The farm bill is critical to food security, job creation, conservation, risk management and addressing hunger. The farm bill, as I’ve said often, could really be called a food and farm bill because of its far-reaching impact. Farmers know first-hand how important farm bill programs like crop insurance are to keeping farms running through tough times like weather disasters, high inflation, and supply chain disruptions. Risk management programs have an impact well beyond the farm, too, as they help ensure we can keep growing the food, fiber and fuel all Americans depend on. More Americans are recognizing the important role our food supply plays in national security, given the supply chain and global disruptions we’ve seen like the war in Ukraine.

Both Golden Harvest and United Way have experienced pandemic-level requests for assistance in the last few months. The number of neighbors needing help is on the rise. Yet, government assistance has either lessened since the COVID-19 pandemic or been taken away completely – and the situation is only worsening.

At United Way of the CSRA, we serve the community by supporting dozens of programs at non-profits in our 12-county footprint, and these organizations serve as frontline resources to struggling neighbors who see the faces of these needs each day. Over the last few months, we’ve seen more calls and web inquiries from residents who need assistance with food, clothing, shelter, and other essential resources in our community.

Sen. Roger Marshall is pushing to open up the amendment process on the annual defense bill in a bid to advance a contested measure that would crack down on credit card swipe fees.

The Kansas Republican on Thursday told POLITICO that he was not trying to hold up any votes on the National Defense Authorization Act, though he expressed serious concern with the amendment process.

The House Agriculture Committee will release the draft of a digital asset market structure bill this week and mark it up next week, along with the House Financial Services Committee, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson, R-Pa., told reporters at a breakfast briefing today.

The bill is produced as part of the committee’s jurisdiction over the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Financial Services Committee has jurisdiction over the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the two committees have been working closely together on the CFTC provisions of the bill.

As Speaker Kevin McCarthy visited a natural gas drilling site in northeast Ohio to promote House Republicans' plan to sharply increase domestic production of energy from fossil fuels last month, the signs of rising global temperatures could not be ignored. Smoke from Canadian wildfires hung in the air.

When the speaker was asked about climate change and forest fires, he was ready with a response: Plant a trillion trees.

Nebraska’s Congressional delegation met with state commodity groups and other stakeholders Monday for several farm bill listening sessions.  Congressmen Don Bacon, a member of the House Ag Committee, says lawmakers likely removed the biggest hurdle by agreeing on work requirements in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance program when the debt ceiling was increased.  “That was going to be the biggest point of contention, and I think it’s already off the table. They already debated it for two months and they came up with a handshake deal.” Senator Pete Ricketts says he’s prioritizing keeping chocolate milk in schools after USDA proposed a ban on the product due to concerns about childhood obesity. “Sometimes these (young people) that’s the only solid meal that they’re getting all day.  We want them to have a healthy meal that involves dairy that’s a part of having strong bones.  This is a huge mistake.” Congressman Adrian Smith says the farm bill needs to include programs and funding that help increase productivity for producers.  “We want the agility for producers to be able to innovate for the future, hopefully smooth things out economically for themselves and to also constantly be thinking about the future.” Congressman Mike Flood says he’s working to secure funding to add more researchers to a USDA precision ag research facility at the University of Nebraska’s Innovation Campus.  “To find ways to grow corn with less water, apply the right amount of nitrogen, do what we can every step of the way to protect the environment and make sure our farmers and ranchers are profitable.”

There is some growing optimism that this year’s Farm Bill will be passed on time. Former House Ag Chair, Frank Lucas says that Congress has overcome one of the most important hurdles to get it done this year. “One of the most important things we had to do was pass a piece of legislation dealing not only with the debt ceiling but setting spending levels for the next few years. The allocation process in the House and Senate is going on,” Rep Lucas states. “As we wait for those final numbers in the House, Chairman Thompson is now moving us in the direction of not just hearing here in DC, but also field hearings around the country laying the groundwork.” However, despite a push to get the bill passed on time, Lucas also emphasizes a one-year extension is better than a weak legislation. “If a one-year extension means that we have a better set of budget numbers a year from now if it helps facilitate a strong five-year Farm Bill, then yes, I will take an extension. After all, we got the ’14 Farm Bill two years after the previous bill was set to come to an end. We had to do the extensions, but it ultimately goes to the ’14 bill that became the base bill in ’18 that I believe will be the base bill then in 2023 to 2024, depending on what happens,” he adds. Today, the Senate Appropriations Committee is debating the ag budget before lawmakers take a 4th of July recess.

Adding to the interest is that few pieces of legislation are expected to pass with Republicans controlling the House and Democrats in the majority in the Senate. The farm bill is an exception.

”It is one of the few pieces of legislation that people suspect will get across the finish line,” said Anne MacMillan, chair of the food and agriculture practice group for Invariant, which last year was paid $36.2 million to lobby — the fifth-highest among all firms, according to the research group OpenSecrets.

Time is running out to get an on-time Farm Bill across the finish line. The current Farm Bill expires at the end of September.

“Farm bills aren’t about Democrats and Republicans,” says Republican Senator John Boozman from Arkansas, Ranking Member of the Senate Ag Committee. He was in Indiana this week and told us that it’s not partisan politics slowing them down. “We’re actually working very, very close together with Senator Stabenow.”

Ranking Member John Boozman says the Senate Ag Committee is working hard and moving in the right direction to complete a farm bill.

“Right now we’re actually getting text down on paper—that’s a good thing,” he says. “We’re trying to get this done by October 1st when it runs out, but we want to get it done for sure by the end of the year.”

It is worth noting that the sovereign wealth fund model may weaken a publicly-funded guaranteed income program’s potential to be redistributive – shrinking income inequality by raising tax burdens on wealthy individuals and corporations and distributing it to those at the bottom of the income hierarchy. Investing large sums of public money in sovereign wealth funds could undermine this objective if the best strategy for growing the fund is investment in large corporations, “blue-chip-stocks”, and private equity firms.51 Such an approach could perpetuate the funneling of money upward on the income spectrum, and further harm the environment by encouraging investment in unsustainable extractive industries like oil and natural gas.