US tech leadership is key to strategic stability and deterrence – the impact is nuclear escalation

Will emerging technology cause nuclear war? For more than 70 years, the world has avoided major-power conflict, and many attribute this era of peace to nuclear weapons.1 In situations of mutually assured destruction, neither side has an incentive to launch a nuclear first strike because doing so will only result in self-annihilation. Maintaining secure, second-strike capabilities—the ability to absorb an enemy nuclear attack and respond with a devastating counterattack—is the key to deterrence.2 Recently, analysts have begun to worry, however, that new military technologies may call into question this model of global strategic stability.3

The world is experiencing a fourth industrial revolution (4IR) in which a wave of new and transformative technologies is being developed, including artificial intelligence (AI), additive manufacturing, quantum information technology, hypersonic missiles, biotechnology, and directed energy.4 While these technologies are expected to have profound implications for societies and economies, most are dual use and will also affect national security, including nuclear strategic stability.

According to an emerging conventional wisdom, new technology may upset nuclear strategic stability by calling into question the survivability of nuclear forces.5 The solution, according to some analysts, is for nuclear-armed states to eschew military applications of at least some of these technologies and lead an international effort to control their spread.6 But these studies too often consider new technology and nuclear strategy in the abstract without adequately considering the prevailing geopolitical context into which these new technologies have been introduced.

This article argues understanding the link between new technology and nuclear stability must consider the prevailing geopolitical context. For the past several decades, the United States, its Allies, and like-minded partners have formed the core of the existing international order.7 They have benefited from this system and would like to see it strengthened, revitalized, and defended. If the new technologies of the 4IR are incorporated into US, Ally, and partner militaries, then any advantages they provide will likely reinforce the prevailing distribution of power and existing sources of strategic stability.

In contrast, China and Russia are revisionist powers intent on disrupting or displacing the US-led system, and they would likely employ new technological advantages to pursue revisionist aims. The greatest danger from emerging technology for nuclear stability, therefore, may result from the possibility that new technology provides Russia or China an enhanced military advantage over vulnerable US Allies and partners, leading to a regional conflict with a significant risk of nuclear escalation.