Gaza isn’t a problem for Biden’s electability – Muslim and Arab Americans are a small part of the electorate, and they’ll vote for Biden anyway.

Mark Mellman, interviewed by Ryan Lizza (Chief Washington Correspondent for POLITICO), “Why This Pollster Says the Press Is Wrong About the Politics of Israel,” POLITICO, 23 March 2024, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/03/23/this-pollster-isnt-worried-that-israel-will-sink-joe-biden-00148665.

Q: Let’s start with the politics of Israel. We recently had Rep. Veronica Escobar on this show. She said that Gaza was the Democrats’ biggest vulnerability. Do you agree that it’s as big a problem or a bigger problem than, say, the border or Biden’s age?

A: I think there’s absolutely no evidence of that whatsoever. The reality is we’ve asked people whether they approve or disapprove of the way the president’s handling this war. And the truth is, the majority of people say they disapprove of the way he’s handling this war. It has nothing to do with which side he’s on. The next largest number think he’s too pro-Palestinian, and the smallest number think he’s too pro-Israel.

So it’s not being supportive of Israel that’s the problem, it’s something else. And the reality is, when we ask people whether they are more likely to vote for the president because of what he’s done in this war, more people are likely to vote for him than against him.

Most people say, “You know what? It really doesn’t matter to me.”

Q: The argument on the other side, on the left — and we’re really just talking about the crass politics of Biden’s position on Israel — is that this is a problem for him in Michigan, where there is a very large Muslim and Arab American population and where Biden had a slim margin in 2020; and it’s connected to why young voters and non-white voters are showing much less support for Biden than at this stage in 2020.

A: If you look at the exit polls, about 1 percent of the Michigan electorate is Muslim American. So it’s large compared to other places. In Nevada, Muslims register 0 percent of the electorate. So much larger than that, but not really very large.

For example, the Jewish community in Michigan is about 2 percent of the electorate. In Nevada, it’s about 4 percent of the electorate. So, you have to look at this in a number of different ways. First, are you really losing support among these groups because of this issue?

Again, there just is not evidence of that. There’s evidence that he’s lost support among those groups, but there’s really no evidence — and again, we’ve asked the questions directly — there’s no evidence that it’s because of this that he’s lost support.

Q: And you’re talking specifically about the Muslim American or non-white voters and young people?

A: I’m going to come back to the Muslim voters in just a second. But with those younger voters —

Q: You don’t see evidence that Israel is costing Biden there?

A: You don’t. And they’re telling us that the economic issues are what’s really most important to them, telling us that in poll-after-poll.

They’re not as pro-Israel as their elders are, those younger voters. We definitely have problems with them. But they’re not saying that they’re voting against Joe Biden because of this issue.

The Arab American voter, potentially different situation, no question about it. My point about them is that they’re a relatively small proportion of the electorate. Number one.

Number two, it is very hard for me to imagine that — and I don’t speak for the Muslim community, obviously, in any way, shape or form — but it’s hard for me to understand, as an analyst, that a Muslim American is going to go vote for the islamophobe-in-chief, Donald Trump, against Joe Biden; the guy who instituted a Muslim ban, the guy who wants to deport Palestinians when he becomes president. People aren’t going to vote for him.

Now, people say, “Well, they may not vote for Trump, but maybe they don’t vote at all. Or maybe they vote for Cornell West or whatever.” Certainly possible.

But again, the closer we get to this election, the clearer it’s going to be to everyone that if you are otherwise a Biden voter who votes for a third party or stays home, you’re voting for Trump. And that’s going to be very clear to the Muslim community. It’s going to be very clear to the Jewish community; it’s going to be very clear to every community that cares about preventing Donald Trump from taking back the White House.