Trump wins – sustained polling advantage

[Justin, “Who will win the 2024 presidential election?”, ]

Biden and Trump traded slight polling leads throughout the primary season. When it comes to actual figures, though, Trump has carried most of the weight in the majority of polls taken this year — a New York Times poll from May 13 of 1,000 Americans showed the former president leading Biden in five of six key battleground states. Biden led Trump only in Wisconsin with a margin of 47% to 45%. While the accuracy of this poll has been questioned, the Trump lead appears to be in line with a May 14 YouGov/Economist poll of 1,586 voters that had Trump leading 42% to 41% and a May 12 Morning Consult poll of 10,243 voters that had him leading 44% to 43%.

So if taking into account just the poll results by themselves, which all have margins of error under 4%, it seems that pollsters are predicting Donald Trump to return to the White House in 2024, and his dominant victories made it evident from the beginning that he would be crowned the GOP's nominee. However, the aforementioned neck-and-neck aspect of the race means polling could possibly sway, and recent polls have found that Biden has been gaining on Trump in the polls — and in some cases, beating him. This includes a pair of RMG Research polls from May 9, each of 2,000 voters. The first showed Biden leading Trump in a head-to-head matchup 44% to 42%. The second added independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the mix, which caused Biden's lead over Trump to increase from two points to three.