If polls are accurate, Trump wins now.

Dave Nagle, March 24 2024, “If Biden loses, it will be because Democrats defeated him,” Iowa Capital Dispatch, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/03/24/if-biden-loses-it-will-be-because-democrats-defeated-him/

A second limitation on the president’s chances is the realistic observation that many on the far left are reluctant to support him. Ironically, Trump faces the same erosion of support from his moderate GOP base. It almost seems the election will be decided by attrition. Our commander-in-chief may well gain former Trump voters, but at the same time lose leftist Dems at the same or higher rate. I am inclined to believe that more Republican moderates will vote for Biden, if only as the lesser of two evils. Purist Democrats, who expect perfection from their elected leaders, could well vote simply “none of the above.”

Recent polls should also temper Democratic optimism. In Michigan, a state the president must carry, Trump comes in a 40% in a CNN poll released March 22, while Biden was at 34%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 18% and independent Cornel West had 4%. Biden is running only 16 points above a fringe candidate.

Nationally, the latest CBS News poll shows Trump at 52% and at Biden 48%. Firmly illustrating the president’s problem was that, within Michigan, Biden’s approval rating was an astonishing low 70%, while Trump’s stood at 80%.

This brings us to the beauty of business, art, and the science of political life. Each individual voter has the right to cast their ballot as they deem appropriate. The narrow view holds that they should vote for who they feel is the best candidate irrespective of whether that individual has a realistic chance of prevailing. The late Sen. George McGovern rose in the polls just before the 1984 caucus results were announced by urging caucus attenders to “vote your conscience.”

But what good is an individual’s belief if their vote results in the election of the person they most want to defeat? This year, the day after the election, if you are a Democrat and didn’t vote for Biden, when you are asked “Who did you vote for?” tell the truth and say with pride, “I voted to make Donald Trump president.”

Trump will win, not because significant numbers of Republicans left him, which they will, but because more Democrats didn’t back their own party’s nominee.