Interdependence prevents great power transition wars, independently of economic growth
Drezner 16 – nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, professor of international politics at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University
(Daniel W., May. “Five Known Unknowns about the Next Generation Global Political Economy.” )
Globalization therefore creates powerful pressures on governments not to close off their economies through protectionism or military aggression. Interdependence can also tamp down conflicts that would otherwise be likely to break out during a great power transition. Of the 15 times a rising power has emerged to challenge a ruling power between 1500 and 2000, war broke out 11 times.109 Despite these odds, China’s recent rise to great power status has elevated tensions without leading to anything approaching war. It could be argued that the Sino-American economic relationship is so deep that it has tamped down the great power conflict that would otherwise have been in full bloom over the past two decades. Instead, both China and the United States have taken pains to talk about the need for a new kind of great power relationship. Interdependence can help to reduce the likelihood of an extreme event—such as a great power war—from taking place.