Dems lead.

MILWAUKEE — Senate Republicans were riding high after President Biden’s implosion on the debate stage in Atlanta — but they were soon confronted with polling showing Democratic incumbents leading in every single battleground state except Montana.

The polling showing Senate Democratic candidates doing better than the beleaguered Biden in their respective states raised alarms among GOP lawmakers that former President Trump may not have long enough coattails when it comes to Senate races.

National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Chair Steve Daines (R-Mont.) says the Democrats’ advantage in key states such as Ohio, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is simply a matter of incumbents’ name ID.

Daines points out that Republican candidates are polling more closely to their Democratic opponents in open-seat races in Arizona and Michigan.

But the stubborn fact remains that Democratic Senate candidates have run well ahead of Biden for months, suggesting that while voters have a poor opinion of Biden, that view isn’t translating to Democrats more widely.

A pair of polls by The New York Times/Siena College showed a pair of Democrats — Sens. Bob Casey (Pa.) and Tim Kaine (Va.) — outperforming Biden by 14 percentage points and 15 percentage points in their respective states.

The recent public polls reflect the sobering reality check Republican senators got when they attended a special briefing on the 2024 political landscape at the NRSC’s headquarters in Washington last week.

“We’re going to continue to run like we’re 5 points behind, because right now, the polls show that. But it’s not lost on us that as we turn the corner into Labor Day and to the finish, you’re going to see these races tighten up,” Daines said, noting that of the past 69 Senate races, 68 have mirrored the results of the presidential race. Sen. Susan Collins’s (R-Maine) reelection win in 2020 was the lone exception.

“You’re always concerned by that. Always concerned,” he said of the possibility that trend gets bucked. “That’s why there’s an intensity and a work ethic right now at the NRSC and amongst our candidates unlike any before.”

One Republican senator who attended the meeting said a mix of internal and high-quality public polling has Montana Republican candidate Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) by only 3 points despite Trump leading Biden in the state by 21 points — a margin reflected in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) average of polls.