Democratic candidates lead now---Polls.
Rivers and Bialik 7-15 [Douglas and Carl; Douglas Rivers is a Chief Scientist, Carl Bialik is the U.S. Politics Editor and Vice President of Data Science; 7-15-2024; “Times/SAY24 swing-state polls show Biden trailing and Democratic Senate candidates leading”; https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/50061-postdebate-times-say24-swing-state-polls-biden-trails-democratic-senate-candidates-lead] Vikrant
The positive news for Democrats in the poll is the performance of their Senate candidates in the same states. There are Senate races in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin this year. In each state a Democrat holds the seat now; two are open races and three seats are being defended by incumbent Democrats. And in each state the Democratic candidate is running ahead of Biden, while leading their Republican opponent by a margin of at least 7 points.