Trump voters will help GOP flip Senate control
Gibson ‘7-15 [Brittany; July 15; Journalist Fellow at POLITICO; B.A in Journalism from Rutgers University; POLITICO; Low-propensity 'Trump voters' will help GOP flip Senate control”, https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/15/rnc-live-updates-coverage/nrsc-chair-on-senate-races-00168301]
If Republicans win one of those states — West Virginia is a near-lock after the retirement of Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin — and the presidency, they will capture control of the Senate. But Republicans' gains could go beyond those three, and Daines believes polls currently understate Republican candidates' chances. “The Trump voters are many of our lower-propensity voters. And they show up to vote when Trump’s on the ballot, and they don't show up in midterms,” Daines said. “And they also don't show up in polling data very well.” Daines’ team analyzed the last 69 Senate races that took place in presidential years, and in all but one contest, he said, “whichever party won the presidential [election] in that state, their party also won the Senate race.” The only exception: Maine in 2020, when now-President Joe Biden won the state while voters also reelected GOP Sen. Susan Collins.
In addition to those three Trump states, Democrats are also defending seats in a number of Electoral College battlegrounds — Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — that could tip with the top of the ticket. A out Monday in Pennsylvania showed Trump leading Biden there by 3 points, but Democratic Sen. Bob Casey was ahead of the GOP nominee, businessperson Dave McCormick, by 8 points.
The NRSC chair was also bullish on races in New Mexico and reliably blue Maryland, where former Gov. Larry Hogan is running.