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Populist nationalism leads to nuclear miscalc

Yang Shen 23, Politics and International Studies at the University of Leeds, 2023, SHS Web of Conferences, Vol 148, “The Rise of Nationalist Populist Leaders and Nuclear Order,” https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202214802023

Nationalist populists typically speak differently than conventional politicians. According to Block and Negrine [4], populists' specific kind of language includes combative, emotional, nationalistic, and confrontational discourse through which they engage with the dissatisfied frequently through grassroots, community-oriented, communicative practices and spaces. As a result, nationalist-populist speeches and announcements are more likely to be geared toward delighting home audiences, garnering their favour and votes, and therefore sustaining their political power. According to Olive and Maren's [1] analysis, the above-mentioned type of discourse that is utilised by nationalist populists may be referred to as "loose talks," and it is typically carried out through social media.

As Olive and Maren [1] pointed out, the release of nuclear policies is not likely to take place until after a drawn-out and careful procedure has been carried out by governments. This is one of the elements that goes into maintaining nuclear order. When it comes to addressing nuclear arsenals and nuclear strategy, for instance, heads of state or government frequently rely on words that have been painstakingly drafted and extensively scrutinised. As Freedman [5] points out, the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence is typically only demonstrated when governments are confronted with threats to their very existence, and only after a stringent government consensus has been reached. In addition, Rebecca [6] noticed that everything a politician says on social media platforms regarding a certain topic is quickly understood as the nation's viewpoint and given a feeling of authority. This is the case regardless of the context in which the politician makes the statement. In spite of this, given what has been said about the unique linguistic style used by nationalist populists, it will be difficult to comprehend the underlying meanings of nationalist populist discourses because of what has been said about this language style. This is owing to the fact that these discourses would be less likely to be the result of a thorough procedure, and they also violate the norm on when countries should display their nuclear deterrence. As a direct result of this, misunderstandings are likely to take place, which has the potential to heighten tensions between governments and may even increase the likelihood of nuclear strikes.

Using Trump and Putin as case studies, this paper will examine how nationalist populists undermine nuclear order and if they are likely to further increase the likelihood of nuclear wars. Since the United States and Russia are the two countries with the biggest nuclear arsenals and they both led by nationalist populist leaders.

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