We control uniqueness – farming is innovating already, solving the impact.

[Bjørn, “Food security: the seed of solution is already here,” NATO Review, 2-18-2011, , accessed 7-22-2021]

Several large-scale surveys that have looked at the effect of climate change on agricultural production and the global food trade system have four crucial findings in common. First, they envision a large increase in agricultural output – more than a doubling of cereal production over the coming century. In the words of one modeling team: “Globally, land and crop resources, together with technological progress, appear to be sufficient to feed a world population of about 9 billion people in 2080.” The most pessimistic models, expecting the most pessimistic climate impacts, expect a total reduction of agricultural production of 1.4% compared to a scenario without any climate change. Second, the impact of global warming on agricultural production will probably be negative, but in total very modest. The most pessimistic models, expecting the most pessimistic climate impacts, expect a total reduction of agricultural production of 1.4% compared to a scenario without any climate change. The most optimistic model forecasts a net increase in agricultural production from global warming of 1.7%. To put these numbers in perspective, the average growth rate for agriculture over the past 30 years was about 1.7. Third, while there will be little change globally, this is not true regionally. In general terms, global warming has a negative impact on developing nations’ agriculture but a positive impact on developed nations’ agriculture. This cruel reality is because temperature increases are helpful for farmers in high latitudes (bringing longer growth seasons, multiple crops, and higher yields) but mean lower productivity for those in tropical countries. [Lomborg_cropfield_2.jpg] In worst-case scenarios, this will mean a 7% decrease in yield in the developing world and a 3% increase in the developed world. This is an issue that we must address, but we should also note the bigger picture: total production even in the least developed countries is expected to rise by about 270%. Over the coming century, developing nations will inevitably become more dependent on food imports from developed countries. This is not primarily a global warming phenomenon: even without global warming, imports for least developed countries would double over the century because of demographics. Global warming causes the import increase to go from about 100% to %110-140%. We should keep in mind that developing country consumers in 2080 will be considerably better off than they are today. One modeling team points out that future developing nation consumers “are largely separated from agricultural production processes, dwelling in cities and earning incomes in the non-agricultural sectors. As in today’s developed countries, consumption levels depend largely on food prices and incomes rather than on changes in domestic agricultural production.” Fourth, overall, global warming will be responsible for up to 28 million more malnourished people in the most likely scenario. (Other scenarios show lower impacts, ranging down to global warming causing an overall reduction in the number of malnourished people by 28 million). The extent of hunger depends less on climate and more on economics It is important to put this into context. The world now has about 925 million malnourished. Over the coming century we will add at least 2-3 billion more people, yet it is likely that towards the end of the century, there will be ‘only’ about 108 million people starving.