No terror threat – US counterterrorism has been, and will continue to be sufficient.

U.S. national security suffered in 2017. Russia is running amok, allies are losing faith in American security and prosperity commitments, and the liberal order is in crisis. Surrounding these clouds, however, a silver lining stands out: counterterrorism. U.S. counterterrorism proved successful this year, especially against jihadist movements that have plagued the United States and the world since 9/11. Jihadist terrorism still poses a problem, of course, and other forms of terrorism have risen too in intensity, but a look at the terrorism balance sheet for 2017 shows a net positive. Yet, the U.S. disengagement from the Middle East provides fertile soil for terrorist groups to grow. Long-term counterterrorism success requires a reexamination of U.S. policy in the Middle East at large. The collapse of the Islamic State’s caliphate in Iraq and Syria represents the biggest counterterrorism success. The Islamic State will go underground and otherwise try to adapt, but losing their territory dealt a big blow: only three years ago, the group seemed deeply rooted in Iraq and Syria and was metastasizing in Egypt, Libya and other countries in the Muslim world. In addition to the U.S. assault on the Islamic State’s territory, the group’s virtual presence is under siege due to counterterrorism efforts, with both the quality and quantity of its propaganda suffering. Even with the collapse of the Islamic State’s caliphate, so-called “homegrown violent extremists” (HVEs) will likely attack, the group will strive to restore itself in Iraq and Syria, and frustrated, would-be foreign fighters may also strike. Some of the Islamic State’s thousands of foreign fighters will also return home, posing an additional danger. Regardless, the collapse of the caliphate dealt a big blow to Islamic State. Setting aside the fall of the caliphate, the counterterrorism picture looks positive from the perspective of U.S. homeland security. In 2017, nine people died on U.S. soil from jihadist terrorist attacks (a security guard killed in Denver, two Americans and six foreign tourists, killed during the car-ramming attack in New York City). That’s nine too many but it should not obscure that the overall number is low. This low number probably stems from a mix of strong U.S. counterterrorism measures abroad, aggressive investigations and better defenses at home, and the overall weakness of jihadist networks in the United States.