Military AI is far off, gradual, and won’t be autonomous.

Are the U.S., China, and Russia recklessly undertaking an “AI arms race”? Clearly, there is military competition among these great powers to advance a range of applications of robotics, artificial intelligence, and autonomous systems.

So far, the U.S. has been leading the way. AI and autonomy are crucial to the Pentagon’s Third Offset strategy. Its Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, Project Maven, has become a “pathfinder” for this endeavor and has started to deploy algorithms in the fight against ISIS. The Department of Defense also plans to create a “Joint Artificial Intelligence Center,” which could consolidate DoD AI initiatives.

At the same time, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army is prioritizing military innovation at the highest levels, pursuing a range of defense applications of AI, including swarm intelligence and decision support systems for submarines. The Russian military, meanwhile, is redoubling its efforts, seeking a range of capabilities from smarter missiles to enhanced electronic warfare.

These great powers are hardly alone; Israel, India, Japan, Korea, France, Australia, and the United Kingdom, and others are also exploring the potential of such new capabilities.

The prospect of AI-infused warfare is also drawing warnings and protest. There are calls to stop “killer robots” and fears of “weaponized AI.” In March, leading AI researchers called for a boycott of a Korean university and its defense industry partner, criticizing their efforts to “accelerate the arms race” for autonomous weapons. This month, Google employees urged their leaders to cease the company’s work on Project Maven and commit never to “build warfare technology.” Repeatedly, some of the world’s best-known technologists have warned of the consequences of an “AI arms race.”

However, the concept of an “arms race” is too simplistic a way to think of the coming AI revolution. To confront its challenges wisely requires reframing the current debates.

First and foremost, AI is not a weapon, nor is “artificial intelligence” a single technology but rather a catch-all concept alluding to a range of techniques with varied applications in enabling new capabilities. Just in the near term, the utility of AI in defense may include the introduction of machine learning to cyber security and operations, new techniques for cognitive electronic warfare, and the application of computer vision to analyze video and imagery (as in Project Maven), as well as enhanced logistics, predictive maintenance, and more.

Despite the active research and development underway, these technologies remain nascent and brittle enough that “fully autonomous” weapons (or even cars) are hardly imminent. Moreover, militaries – even those that care less about laws and ethics – may be unwilling to relinquish human control due to the risks.