The aff undermines the perception of willfulness to fight

(Jeffery, 6-17-12, Mater’s Thesis, “Coercion: A Credible and Capable United States Military Instrument of Power Key to Future US Foreign Policy Success,” http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a562347.pdf)

To accomplish foreign policy goals without resorting to war, the United States ¶ (US) will need to employ coercion to shape the environment to favor US interests. ¶ Successfully coercing nations to comply with US demands will require developing a clear ¶ strategy, with realistic and consistent goals, along with credible means to issue threats of ¶ escalating force that are capable of imposing the stated objectives. A credible and ¶ capable military instrument of power is a key to successful coercion. ¶ Coercion attempts to manipulate an adversary’s behavior to comply with demands ¶ levied by the coercer. The coercer uses the elements of national power to deter or, if ¶ necessary compel acceptance. Compellence is obtained by increasing the perceived or ¶ real cost of behavior to exceed the benefits gained by the adversary. Therefore, the ¶ coercer must develop a strategy that makes the adversary perceive the cost will be too ¶ high, as the adversary’s perception is essential to alter unwanted behavior. ¶ To increase the perception of cost, threats must be credible and capable in order to ¶ achieve escalation dominance over the adversary. Credibility is achieved by keeping all ¶ options available publicly, not unnecessarily limiting options or levels and types of force ¶ employed. Though force limits will likely be applied, keeping these limits secret from ¶ the adversary are important to winning the perception battle. Capability is achieved by ¶ making forces appear flexible to accomplish required missions. Eliminating undue public ¶ restrictions will make it more difficult for the adversary to counter the coercive force. ¶ However, threats should not be issued or implied unless the coercer has the will to ¶ employ the threat. ¶ 80 ¶ Political leaders will have greater success in remaining credible when they agree ¶ on when and how to employ US forces before making interventions in foreign affairs. ¶ The case studies show that actions or statements that reduce the appearance of ¶ commitment also reduce the credibility of US demands. Once credibility is undermined, ¶ the adversary will believe the US forces employed also lack the capability required to ¶ impose the unwanted demand. This lack of credibility and capability encourages the ¶ adversary to counter the coercion or simply wait until the coercer tires of the struggle.