The economy isn’t resilient—err neg—inflation could tip the scales

The US economy appears to be doing well, according to an IPC economic outlook report. In fact, by the end of 2023, unemployment dropped to 3.8%, and inflation continued to decrease. The markets appear to have stabilized.

But that’s not the whole story.

The financial markets have long been removed from the realities of the American economy. Stock prices rise and fall based on investor emotion, not asset quality. Checkr, a background check and verification company, surveyed 3,000 workers and managers to discover that employees are overworked and underpaid. More and more Americans are taking a second job to pay the bills.

Housing continues to be cost-prohibitive for millions of Americans, many struggling with inflation and price gouging. Private equity has bought a sustainable amount of resources, such as hospitals, clinics, housing, and advisory firms.

In other words, the economy hasn’t necessarily healed just because the numbers look a little higher than a few months ago. One catastrophic event might be enough to drive the economy into a downturn.