Critical mineral shortages undermine geopolitical tensions---That causes U.S. China Conflict

Critical minerals undergird great power competition and war. These nonfuel minerals and mineral materials are vital to countries’ defense industrial bases, enabling the production of military platforms like tanks as well as munitions and artillery shells. Therefore, mineral supplies can help sustain military power, while mineral shortages can severely undermine it. For example, the Allied powers’ control of most of the world’s minerals before World War II proved instrumental in their eventual victory over the Axis powers.

Minerals remain important for military power today. Iron is used in steel, which is necessary for military components like ship hulls and tank armor. Copper is commonly used in munitions such as bullets and artillery shells. And lithium and other minerals have gained further relevance due to their use in new energy technologies, like high-capacity batteries. The U.S. Army aims to field an entirely electric non-tactical light-duty vehicle fleet by 2027, and the army’s climate strategy emphasizes installing battery storage systems and generating renewable electricity on its bases.

Yet, the importance of these minerals also makes them a dangerous vulnerability if their supply chains are not secure—and unfortunately, the U.S. and other NATO militaries rely on defense industrial bases with vulnerable mineral supply chains. Given their limited domestic mineral production, both the United States and Europe depend heavily on mineral imports, including from rival powers like China, which supplies minerals such as graphite, rare earth elements, and other battery minerals, and Russia, which provides aluminum, nickel, and titanium. In June 2023, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned the alliance to avoid becoming overdependent on Chinese minerals, just as many NATO countries previously became overdependent on Russian gas. Additionally, the U.S. government holds limited mineral inventories in its National Defense Stockpile, while the European Union (EU) has walked back its plans to develop a centralized mineral stockpile.

Mineral supply chain risks are rising as the adoption of renewable energy technology increases mineral demand and as the rearmament efforts of the U.S. and allied militaries in support of Ukraine use more minerals. Coupled with limited production and stockpiles, the U.S. and other NATO militaries face three serious risks that could lead to mineral shortages: foreign export controls; rising military demand amid great power competition, including the possibility of a U.S.-China conflict; and disrupted sea-lanes. The United States and other NATO countries must act now to address these supply chain risks.