Intellectual property theft is key to the Chinese innovation machine.

Speculation about the on-and-off U.S.-Chinese trade talks centers on whether the two sides will eventually settle for a truce or push for a “complete deal,” which U.S. President Donald Trump remains adamant he will obtain. Any grand bargain will require progress on a key structural issue: intellectual property (IP) rights. According to some reports, Chinese IP theft has cost the United States $225 billion to $600 billion a year. No wonder, then, that getting China to better protect IP is a point of rare consensus among both the White House and the Democratic leadership.

But history tells us to be cautious; Washington’s demands are unrealistic. Countries do not enact strong IP rights systems until their ability to innovate at home displaces reliance on outside knowledge. The United States’ own centurylong drift toward strong protections is a case in point.

Economists see the accumulation and dissemination of knowledge as key to sustainable economic growth. That is true for both developing and developed economies, although they differ greatly in their abilities to generate innovation. It is only natural, then, that developing countries would primarily seek to upgrade their stocks of knowledge and technology through acquisition rather than invention. China and others see such efforts as vital to evading the middle-income trap.