Trade escalation splits the globe into blocs---nuclear war
Dr. Larisa Kapustina 20, PhD in Economics and Professor of Economics at Ural State University, Dr. Ľudmila Lipková, Professor of Economics at the University of Economics in Bratislava, Yakov Silin, Rector of Ural State University of Economics, and Andrei Drevalev, Senior Lecturer of the Marketing and International Management at Ural State University, “US-China Trade War: Causes and Outcomes”, SHS Web of Conferences 73, p. 10-11 [grammar edit]
4.4 Scenario 4. Trade war will escalate into Hot World War III
A trade war can escalate from Cold to Hot stage, which is especially unwanted scenario considering that the US allows limited use of nuclear weapon[s]. According to Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Xiaoyang Li, the trade conflict between China and the US is of fundamental nature and it cannot be easily resolved [29]. The conflict is associated with the race for global economic domination. The US has a serious advantage in cyberspace and it seeks to “digitally colonize” the global economy. According to Ashmanov, almost all neural platforms in the world are US-based, including first of all those belonging to Google and Facebook [35]. “The US shows with its actions, that they are ready to easily throw any inconvenient contracts and obligations away into the trash can, and also to ignore the UN and other international organizations, granting itself the right for unilateral military actions, the US is moving towards the role associated with the British Empire after the World War I” [6]. This scenario seems unlikely now, but it is not excluded.
Trump has made matters worse by acting unilaterally against China in a way that would appear to breach World Trade Organization rules. Indeed, potential allies find Trump’s “America First” rhetoric repulsive. All this has given China the political high ground – “China doesn’t want a trade war, but we’re not afraid to fight a trade war” has become Beijing’s official line [22].
5 Conclusion
The greatest trade war in economic history can result in a change in the international trade architecture, slow-down of financial markets. The countries can be divided into two blocks supporting the US or China, and at the same time, forming the mega-alliances of economies, as well as regional currency zones. The Asia’s role in globalization processes and the development of global supply chains is likely to strengthen. The US strives to weaken its main competitor and maintain dominance in the global arena: in the economy, politics and the national security.
The current foreign trade policy of the US aims to slow down the still rapid economic growth of the PRC and its growing importance in the world economy. The China’s government in its turn has a goal to achieve leadership in robotics, biotechnology and artificial intelligence. It will provide financial support to high-tech industries, and will do everything possible not to let the US stop or slow down the modernization and digitalization of the China’s economy.