Decoupling creates power vacuums, increasing Chinese influence.

The Chinese economy is too big for decoupling to be a realistic prospect. China is the world’s largest manufacturer of goods, with an output equivalent to that of all U.S., German, and Japanese factories combined. Under a decoupling scenario, goods shortages would be likely, and inflation would spike as U.S. firms struggle to source products. In addition, Chinese supremacy in producing dishwashers, computers, or toys does not threaten U.S. interests. Cutting ties to China in such noncritical sectors—as decoupling would —is not needed. A U.S.-China decoupling would accelerate the fragmentation of the global economic landscape. Under a decoupling scenario, all countries around the world would have to pick sides between the United States and China. This could yield unpleasant surprises for Washington. China is the biggest trading partner of the majority of countries, and the citizens of many emerging economies appear to prefer China over the United States. As a result, decoupling could well backfire: It would deepen China’s global influence by forcing countries to shift away from the United States. Cutting all ties to China would diminish those economic interdependences that give Washington leverage over Beijing. Partners have much to lose if relations sour, but adversaries do not. U.S. sanctions on China—for instance, the ones that would be imposed if a conflict were to erupt in Taiwan—would be toothless if Washington and Beijing did not have trade and financial ties anymore. To put things differently, economic interdependences between the United States and China benefit U.S. security; they act as a deterrent against China’s territorial ambitions.