Terrorism risks are growing rapidly, and risk nuclear use

IND = Improvised Nuclear Device, RDD = Radiological dispersal device, RED = Radiological explosive device

NEW DYNAMICS IN NUCLEAR TERRORISM POSE NEW RISKS

The committee does not foresee an imminent nuclear terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon or an IND Nevertheless, the number and types of groups who may be motivated to use INDs, RDDs, or REDs is likely growing (Earnhardt, Hyatt, and Roth 2021). While some nonstate actors may be deterred by the near-certainty of attribution and retribution, others including millenarian groups such as ISIS and U.S.-based accelerationist groups, actively court retaliation to spark a wider war or to realize apocalyptic beliefs.

Nuclear weapons, weapons usable fissile materials, and nuclear weapons design expertise are almost entirely controlled by state actors. This means that in order for a terrorist organization to carry out a nuclear attack with either a nuclear weapon or an improvised nuclear device, they would need the complicity of a state, the failure of the state’s controls, or the failure of the state itself. As the national security and intelligence communities shift focus from terrorism to great power competition, there is danger that there will be less capability and capacity for early detection and for mobilizing a timely counter-terrorism response to a non-state actor that obtains a nuclear weapon or weapons usable fissile materials.

Importantly terrorism is not exclusively an international threat or domestic threat but increasingly is a transnational one (Hoffman and Ware 2023). A particularly troubling development is the existence of U.S.-based accelerationist groups who have been deliberately recruiting U.S. military personnel. Additionally, there are disturbing and growing U.S. domestic links with mercenary and terrorist groups across international borders.

Another worrisome development with respect to terrorism is the extent to which technical information can be obtained online and this could encourage groups to seek nuclear material. . Additionally, extremists are utilizing social media to fuel radicalization and extreme partisanship, as well as to propagate dis- and misinformation, and sow mistrust of government institutions and authoritative information. Social media is serving as a powerful organizational tool for terrorist groups, facilitating an increase in international connectivity among domestic and foreign terrorist organizations.

The risk of nuclear terrorism must also be evaluated in the context of changing norms associated with nuclear weapons and civil nuclear power. There have been cyberattacks on operating nuclear power plants in India, Japan, and South Korea. Russia has demonstrated a willingness to defy international norms, not only by attacking and occupying Ukraine’s operating civilian nuclear power plants, but also by employing proxies with a history of war crimes, deploying operatives to attack and poison individuals with advanced nerve agents and radiological substances, and threatening to use nuclear weapons.

In sum, managing the threat of nuclear and radiological terrorism will be challenged by the continued prevalence of groups operating both domestically and overseas who are motivated to carry out these kinds of attacks. State actors could potentially collaborate with terrorist groups providing them the capability to conduct such attacks. As this threat landscape continues to evolve, the pressure of other national security challenges associated with great power competition along with resource constraints will make it difficult for the national defense and intelligence communities to sustain current levels of effort for managing the nuclear terrorism risk.