AI won’t be integrated into sensitive military systems but can be used in other areas to clear the fog of war.

Consider one assertion — that artificial intelligence will make conflict more lethal and harder to constrain. Analysts envision a future in which machines can pilot fighter jets more skillfully than humans, AI-enabled cyberattacks devastate enemy networks, and advanced algorithms turbocharge the speed of decisions. Some warn that automated decision-making could trigger rapid-fire escalation — even nuclear escalation — that leaves policymakers wondering what happened. If war plans and railway timetables caused World War I, perhaps AI will cause World War III.

That AI will change warfare is undeniable. From enabling predictive maintenance of hardware to facilitating astounding improvements in precision targeting, the possibilities are profound. A single F-35, quarterbacking a swarm of semiautonomous drones, could wield the firepower of an entire bomber wing. As the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence concluded in 2021, a “new era of conflict” will be dominated by the side that masters “new ways of war.”

But there’s nothing fundamentally novel here. The story of warfare through the ages is one in which innovation regularly makes combat faster and more intense. So think twice before accepting the proposition that AI will make escalation uncontrollable.

The US and China have discussed an agreement not to automate their nuclear command-and-control processes — a pledge Washington has made independently — for the simple reason that states have strong incentives not to relinquish control over weapons whose use could endanger their own survival. Russia’s behavior, including the development of nuclear-armed torpedoes that could eventually operate autonomously, is a greater concern. But even during the Cold War, when Moscow built a system meant to ensure nuclear retaliation even if its leadership was wiped out, it never turned off the human controls. Expect today’s great powers to exploit the military possibilities AI presents aggressively — while trying to keep the most critical decisions in human hands.

In fact, AI could reduce the risk of breakneck escalation, by helping decision makers peer through the fog of crisis and war. The Pentagon believes that AI-enabled intelligence and analytical tools can help humans sift through confusing or fragmentary information regarding an enemy’s preparations for war, or even whether a feared missile attack is indeed underway. This isn’t science fiction: Assistance from AI reportedly helped US intelligence analysts sniff out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In this sense, AI can mitigate the uncertainty and fear that pushes people toward extreme reactions. By giving policymakers greater understanding of events, AI might also improve their ability to manage them.