Harris is struggling in swing states
Geoffrey Skelley and Elliot Morris 7/22 , Geoffrey Skelley and Elliot Morris are both elections analysts for 538, 7/22/24, “What do the polls say about a Harris vs Trump matchup”, https://abcnews.go.com/538/polls-harris-trump-matchup/story?id=112162146, WF
Polling at the state level is limited at this point, with no more than four polls conducted in the past month in any battleground state. But based on the state-level polls we do have, things don't look any more rosy for Harris there, as she lags behind Biden's margin against Trump in the key battleground states for which we have data. In our aggregate of this limited set of polls, Harris trailed Trump by around 3 points in Wisconsin (Biden trailed by about 2 points), by almost 5 in Pennsylvania (Biden was down around 4) and by 5 in Michigan (Biden was behind by about 2). This raises the possibility that she could have a harder time than Biden winning the Electoral College and thus the election.