The plan doesn’t have the momentum to get through---costs PC.

Kim Rivers, CEO of Florida-based Trulieve, now believes that federal legalization will be “incremental” and will take years. She contends that the SAFE Banking Act, which would make it easier for cannabis companies to access the financial system, is the most likely reform to be passed at the federal level during Biden’s remaining term. Rivers, like many other CEOs, does not believe there is enough political capital to usher in de-scheduling or federal legalization right now. “We’re still stuck on first base,” she says.

The same buzzkill mentality is pervasive among investors. Jason Wild, a former pharmacist who launched cannabis hedge fund JW Asset Management ($600 million AUM) and is currently the chair of Canada-based cannabis operator TerrAscend, which has 35 dispensaries across California, Canada, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, laughs when asked if he incorporates federal reform in his business strategy. “We certainly do not model for federal legalization,” says Wild. “And, for that matter, we don’t model for incremental change. It’s a dangerous strategy. From a balance sheet perspective, you need to act like it’s not going to happen.”

Marijuana is still illegal federally for a very simple reason. “Politicians just don't really care,” says Paul Armentano, the deputy director of nonprofit legalization advocacy group NORML. “It's just not on their priority list. If it were, they would address it. They don't because it isn't. It’s simple stuff.”