Winning the A.I. race causes insurmountable gaps in nuclear power, upending MAD and decimating strategic stability.
Cuihong 19, Professor of international relations with the Center for American Studies at Fudan University (Cai, “The shaping of strategic stability by artificial Intelligence” in: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Risk, Volume II: East Asian Perspectives, p. 65, Available Online at: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-10/the_impact_of_artificial_intelligence_on_strategic_stability_and_nuclear_risk_volume_ii.pdf)
Furthermore, involvement of AI technology will also introduce new variables into the stability of the global system of nuclear deterrence. In an era of weak AI, only a combination of AI technology and nuclear weapons can form an effective deterrent system. When AI technology is involved in all aspects of a nuclear deterrent structure, the original system of stability will change. As a data tool, AI provides countries with new offensive capabilities and has a direct impact on the reliability of nuclear weapon use. In a big data environment, however, there are also a number of subjective factors, such as the unpredictability of national will and strategic intent. When subjected to deep learning algorithms, intent may be clarified. These shifts could result in an imbalance in the MAD-based system of nuclear deterrence. The party with a command of AI technology will have the ability to clearly assess the possibility and destructiveness of the other party’s nuclear counterattack, thus having more flexible strategic options, while the side with relatively backward technologies will possess less credible retaliatory capabilities.41 The gap between military powers will again expand and countries’ military strategic aims will accordingly readjust. In other words, the traditional international security system will become unstable.