Improved military A.I. pushes China to high alert, guaranteeing nuclear escalation.

Further, the application of AI technology has a marked impact on strategic stability among nuclear powers and may undermine the mutual vulnerability and strategic stability of nuclear-armed states of unequal power. Because AI boasts strong capabilities in image and pattern recognition, similar to facial recognition, its ability to recognize still images is strong and it will greatly enhance the effectiveness of strategic reconnaissance. By improving the ability to interpret satellite images and the deep reconnaissance of long-distance UAVs, the country that possesses nuclear superiority will be able to gain further intelligence on the basic characteristics and procedures of its opponent’s nuclear force deployment and movements. This will enhance a country’s confidence in its ability to disarm its opponent’s nuclear weapons with a first strike. When there is a large gap between the nuclear forces of the two countries, this situation will make a preemptive strike by the more powerful one more advantageous, thus weakening the strategic stability of the two countries during a crisis.

At sea, AI technology can be used to improve the capability to collect and process a submarine’s sound signature. In anti-submarine warfare, UUVs can also be used to conduct close-range reconnaissance, which can strengthen the capacity to detect and recognize enemy nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). On the one hand, this reduces the survivability of the enemy SSBNs, thereby weakening the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence and reducing strategic stability.1 On the other hand, this AI technology can reduce the probability of accidental nuclear war: by improving the ability to identify SSBNs, a country can avoid accidentally hitting an SSBN as part of conventional anti-submarine warfare.

Facing the huge quantitative and qualitative advantages of the USA in nuclear weapons, China has maintained a slim and effective retaliatory nuclear force based on mobile strategic missiles with relatively strong concealment, manoeuvrability and survivability. This force is predicated on increasing the opponent’s ‘first-strike uncertainty’ (第一次打击的不确定性) to ensure credible deterrence.2 However, once the USA is able to effectively employ AI technology to improve its reconnaissance capabilities against China’s mobile strategic missiles—enabling discovery of deployment rules, manoeuvring routes and launch site locations—this ‘first strike uncertainty’ would be eliminated.

The USA would thereby gain the advantage of being able to decapitate China’s nuclear arsenal. To overcome concerns over this potential, China would have to increase the alert level of its nuclear weapons to ensure the credibility of its deterrent. This would lead to a state in which both sides tend toward pre-emption, weakening the strategic stability of the two countries and increasing the risk of nuclear conflict. In the case of sea-based nuclear deterrence, the employment of AI-based detection technology and offensive UUVs may also have similar effects. In particular, due to the difficulty of underwater communication, it would be difficult for these weapon platforms to receive onshore command and control signals in a timely manner. This would make it difficult to control, much less recall such platforms when engaged in operations.