U.S. first strikes would avoid population centers---but successful Chinese nuclear strikes on the U.S. cause massive U.S. counter-retaliation against Chinese cities
Lieber and Press 7 - Keir A. Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame, and Daryl G. Press, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, Winter 2007, “U.S. Nuclear Primacy and the Future of the Chinese Deterrent,” China Security, Issue No. 5, online: http://www.wsichina.org/cs5_5.pdf
Third, in the midst of a high-stakes military confrontation – for example, if China began alerting its nuclear forces during a conventional war with the United States – the United States might strike first even if leaders in Washington doubted they could destroy every single long-range Chinese weapon. In the immediate aftermath of a limited U.S. counterforce attack – one that targeted only China’s DF-5A silos, but avoided direct attacks on Chinese leadership and population targets – U.S. leaders would likely hasten to explain that any Chinese nuclear retaliation against U.S. forces, American allies, or the U.S. homeland would trigger a second and far more extensive American strike.