Global responses to food insecurity can effectively prevent conflict now

Sharp rises in global food prices in 2007/08 jolted global political leaders out of any complacency they might have had regarding the future of food and agriculture. Street demonstrations and food riots broke out in more than 40 countries across the world, provoking unrest and violence in several places.

The L’Aquila Food Security Initiative, launched by the G-8 and the G-20 in 2009, brought new funding and energy to the task of quelling the “perfect storm” of food insecurity set off by spiking global food and fuel prices, financial and commodity market turmoil, the competition of biofuel production, and adverse weather in key agricultural regions. The L’Aquila Food Security Initiative successfully reversed a decades-long decline in international support for agricultural development.

To implement the L’Aquila Initiative, programs were put in place across the developing world to increase agricultural productivity, strengthen smallholder farmer linkages to commercial markets, and ensure that youth, women, and marginalized populations were full participants in the growth of the sector. But as this work went forward, new threats to sustainable food security became apparent.

Changes in global weather patterns are now projected to have potentially devastating impacts on agriculture in the coming years and decades. The rising “double burden” of malnutrition already threatens to dampen global progress toward better health. Demographic change—a bulging population of youth in Africa and rapid urbanization—is creating opportunities for an economic growth spurt that will affect food demand and organized protests when food security is endangered. Food safety issues, economic and social inequities, and food price volatility are seen as persistent disrupters of food systems and food security. Outbreaks of civil unrest and violent conflict have deprived millions of reliable access to food and challenged their physical security and social cohesion. Whether these threats will combine to drive repeats of 2007/08’s “perfect storm” of food insecurity in the future is unknown. But it is predicted that, singly or together, they already pose critical risks—likely to erupt in “recurring storms”—somewhere around the globe.

The L’Aquila Initiative was brought to a close in 2012. But in 2015, “ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition, and promoting sustainable agriculture” was adopted as one of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be accomplished by 2030. Strong international collaboration to build more productive and resilient households, nations, and food systems—to help them withstand the likely recurring storms of hunger, food insecurity, and agricultural market volatility—seems like the obvious path forward.