Putin goes down fighting.
Liana Fix 24, Fellow for Europe, author of A New German Power? Germany’s Role in European Russia Policy, adjunct faculty member at Georgetown University in the Center for German and European Studies and the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; Maria Snegovaya, Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2/15/2024, "Leadership Change in Russia," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/report/leadership-change-russia, christian
Historically, most scenarios of leadership change have necessitated military or paramilitary force. Therefore, leadership change in Moscow will potentially require one or more security forces switching loyalties to sideline smaller factions and counter the risk of the incumbent leader fighting back or of a conspiracy being detected early. That dynamic would make a violent form of removal more likely than nonviolent forms (such as resignation). The current leadership’s suppression of internal criticism and systematic promotion of misinformation—including about the strength of its own regime—can also lead to a misinterpretation of signals and violent overreactions.