Sudan empirics prove escalation.
Blaine 21 [Tegan; a director of climate, environment & conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace; 06/21/2021; “Can the World Go Green Without Destabilizing Oil-Pumping Nations?”; USIP; https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/can-world-go-green-without-destabilizing-oil-pumping-nations] iman
The dangers from rapid loss of oil revenue — “traumatic decarbonization” — as well as the varied possible outcomes emerge in four case studies within the new research (with studies on Venezuela and Ecuador forthcoming).
South Sudan. From 2005 to 2012, South Sudan’s rival elites bought the loyalty of armed men with oil money. The collapse of those rents in 2013 triggered civil war. The competing factions shifted their patronage system from oil revenues to the distribution of profitable government offices and “licenses.” Some licenses were literal contracts; others were de facto agreements letting armed groups tax, loot and raid the populations under their control. This shift from oil to predation as the revenue source has intensified inequality and misery among South Sudanese while enabling continued domination by the small elite groups. This change may well prove durable as well as brutal.