Nigeria.

Nigeria. Nigeria’s oil rents historically provide 65 to 85 percent of government revenue, much of which fuels patronage networks. When COVID-19 and oil market competition dropped prices for Nigeria’s crude by 75 percent last year, the government scrambled for loans to fund an estimated 20 percent gap in the federal budget. Despite President Muhammadu Buhari’s initial calls for austerity measures, budgeted line items increased, suggesting that a substitute for oil-derived patronage funds came from providing payouts from the federal budget. In 2021, new loans are predicted to account for as much as 40 percent of the federal budget. In the longer term, authorities aim to replace oil profits with those from natural gas. Still, evidence suggests that in general, Nigerian elites prefer to cling to the lucrative, immediate profits of the oil business rather than sacrifice those to seek longer-term benefits with other, perhaps less profitable alternatives. Elites are making their choices amid historic levels of public protest, widespread violent turmoil, rising domestic food insecurity and a quickly approaching election season. This leaves open a question about how the elite patronage system will respond to the growing instability.