Perception of the plan causes uncertainty sufficient for the link.
Christian Bogmans 23, Ph.D. in Economics from Tilburg University, MPhil in International Economics and Business from the University of Groningen; Andrea Pescatori; Ervin Prifti, 6/20/2023, "The Impact of Climate Policy on Oil and Gas Investment," International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No. 2023/140, christian
Our empirical findings point to a detrimental impact of climate policies, and the associated uncertainty, on investment in the upstream oil and gas industry. A perceived increase in the exposure of oil and gas firms to climate policies has led to a 6.5 percent global decline of their capital expenditures between 2016 to 2019 (i.e., a -1.45 percent annual rate), after controlling for oil market tightness (i.e, spot oil prices), global factors, and other typical firm-level control variables. The investment gap is even more significant relative to the non-energy control group. There is also substantial within-industry heterogeneity with European oil and gas companies being affected the most.