Climate polices destroy oils value taking their prices down with them.

However, with progressively intensifying international commitments to reduce fossil carbon emissions, both stated and middle-ground climate and energy policies are likely a lower bound in terms of their ambition. Strengthened climate policies and added market penetration from clean energy technologies will severely reduce demand for oil and gas in the global market. At the same time, our findings project that the United States will remain a major producer of oil and gas, particularly given the cost-competitiveness of US gas production and modeled future expansion of the transoceanic LNG trade.

Yet the regional and local economics of oil and gas production across the United States are highly heterogeneous, and this study identifies counties nationwide where current production may become non-competitive over the next two decades as the shrinking market eliminates high-cost producers.

Our interactive national map explores the magnitude of estimated non-competitive oil and gas production and the potential losses of associated tax revenue and sectoral jobs associated with reduced future production for a range of future dates and different scenarios. Cost-competitiveness is but one of numerous factors that influence oil and gas production, with myriad considerations like access to markets, local policies, or product characteristics affecting operational decision-making. Even so, by spatially visualizing and quantifying the potential impacts faced by higher-cost producers, our interactive map can serve as a guide for local policy makers and community stakeholders seeking to assess future economic risks.

Heterogeneous but structural oil and gas demand destruction across the United States also emphasizes the acute need for public policies to promote economic diversification and workforce reorganization in communities highly dependent on the oil and gas sector. Historical policy measures as well as existing local, state, and international policies provide numerous models for potential federal measures to support oil and gas workers and communities.