Demand will be curbed significantly below current levels.
Vyatcheslav Kulagin 20, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ph.D. Institute for Low Temperature Physics and Engineering; Dmitry Grushevenko; Nikita Kapustin, 2020, "Fossil fuels markets in the ‘energy transition’ era," Russian Journal of Economics, Issue 6, Number 4, https://rujec.org/article/55177/element/8/109073, christian
In the context of electric transport spread, it is of great interest to assess the impact of these processes on oil demand. One should understand that the global need for mobility is constantly increasing. Even with a relatively modest growth rate of 2.8% in global GDP, the growth of the global fleet will require about 1.5 billion tons of additional energy by 2040. Part of this increase (about 0.6 billion toe) can be compensated for by 2040 by increasing the energy efficiency of conventional vehicles (reducing fuel consumption in the global fleet as a whole). Another 0.27 billion toe will be cut by the transition to alternative fuels. This roughly corresponds to the development of energy in the framework of “business-as-usual” scenarios while maintaining existing approaches. However, the tightening of policy in terms of emissions, energy efficiency and support for the transition of transport to alternative fuels can lead to a peak in oil consumption already by 2025–2030 and by 2040, the demand for oil can be significantly below 2019 levels.