Reject pre-COVID consumption predictions, they ignore shifting investor preferences.
Vyatcheslav Kulagin 20, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ph.D. Institute for Low Temperature Physics and Engineering; Dmitry Grushevenko; Nikita Kapustin, 2020, "Fossil fuels markets in the ‘energy transition’ era," Russian Journal of Economics, Issue 6, Number 4, https://rujec.org/article/55177/element/8/109073, christian
The situation in 2020 by itself does not represent a radical overturn in the oil and gas market, but it signifies major adjustments of the market landscape in the coming years. The key factor is the excess supply of oil and gas against the background of reduced demand in the presence of commissioned but idling production capacity. This situation generates significant risks of price volatility and necessitates the need for stabilization mechanisms. In such conditions, the preferences of investors are changing, as they become increasingly wary of investing in conventional oil and gas projects with long payback periods. In the global paradigm of the oil and gas market, this means that historical consumption peaks will occur at lower levels than predicted before the COVID-19 pandemic.